Today's Update - 11/28

No new polls today, but I have updated the Lanaudière page and added a projection for Berthier. I project the vote at PQ 38%, ADQ 30%, PLQ 25%.

Today's Update

No new polls today. I have added a projection for Saint-Henri-Sainte-Anne and updated the Montréal region page. Saint-Henri-Sainte-Anne is projected to stay with the PLQ.

Updates for Today

No new polls as far as I can tell, but there will probably be some soon in order to gauge the effect of the debates.

A few notes, however. The Sherbrooke poll I posted yesterday had an error. I had Québec solidaire at 7% and the other parties at 0%, but it is actually 6% for QS and 1% for the other parties. It doesn't change anything, but I wanted to point that out.

Today so far I've updated the Laval page with the new numbers as well as the Montérégie page. On that last page I've added a projection for Marguerite-D'Youville. It should go from the ADQ to the PQ.

If I make any other updates I will add them to this post.

Today's Polls - 11/25

So many polls today. They haven't all been entered into the model, but many have and the national polls certainly have. I will be updating the individual riding pages with these new results over the next few days.

We have two national polls, one from Léger Marketing (with 3,070 polled) and one from CROP (1001 polled). We have regional polls from Léger Marketing for all regions of Quebec, and we have large regional polls from CROP. Lastly, we have a riding poll in Sherbrooke.

The seat projection has changed dramatically. The PLQ is up six seats to 67, and thus a majority. The PQ is up two seats from 52 to 54. The ADQ is down from twelve seats to four. Which four? Rivière-du-Loup, Chutes-de-la-Chaudière, Beauce-Nord, and Lotbinière.

The popular vote has also changed:

PLQ +1.68
QS +0.20
OTH -0.06
PVQ -0.06
PQ -0.09
ADQ -1.67

The high-low seat projection has also changed:

PLQ = 42 to 75 seats (+3 seats)
PQ = 39 to 65 seats (unchanged)
ADQ = 1 to 25 seats (-2 seats)

If you're wondering how the ADQ could still win 25 seats, that is in the case where the polls are wrong, the ADQ nets around 18% and has it concentrated in the most beneficial way.

I'll be continuously updating the riding pages over the next few days, so be sure to check them out.

Today's Polls - 11/24

Today we have a poll by Segma Recherche which was released yesterday in the Progrès-Dimanche, which I believe is part of Le Quotidien, a Saguenay-based newspaper.

It has the PQ ahead in all the ridings of Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean except Dubuc, and the PQ comfortably ahead overall.

My projections for Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean have been updated with this poll, and I am still projecting the PQ to win in Dubuc. We can't forget how inaccurate the Segma polls were during the federal election.

Riding Projections - Centre-du-Québec

These are the final projections for a selected riding in Centre-du-Québec.

Drummond - Yves-François Blanchet (PQ)



The PQ won the seat, as projected. His 34.4% was slightly lower than the projected 37.8%. The PLQ support of 32.5% was close to the projected 31.5%.

Result: 1 for 1 (100%)

Today's Polls - 11/22

Today we have a poll from Nanos Research taken from 505 people between November 14-18. Because of the size of the poll and the reliability of Nanos, the weight is relatively low. The weighting of polls taken before the start of the election campaign have also been lowered, as I have been doing with each update in order to give more relative weight to recent polls.

Because of all this, we have a seat change. The PQ has risen to 52 again and the ADQ has dropped to 12. The popular vote change is as follows:

PLQ +0.22
PQ +0.18
OTH +0.05
QS -0.06
PVQ -0.16
ADQ -0.23

There have been no changes to the seat projection high/lows, and no individual riding projections have changed.

I have been updating those individual riding projections, so be sure to check them out continuously.

Riding Projections - Laval

These are the final projections for selected ridings in the region of Laval.

Fabre - Michelle Courchesne (PLQ)
Laval-des-Rapides - Alain Paquet (PLQ)
Vimont - Vincent Auclair (PLQ)

You can click on the image to see them in greater detail, and a comparison of results to projections is below.



The PLQ won in Fabre as projected, with 45.5% instead of the projected 44.0%.

The PLQ won in Laval-des-Rapides as projected, with 43.6% instead of the projected 43.4%. Very close!

The PLQ won in Vimont as projected, with 47.8% instead of the projected 43.2%.

Result: 3 for 3 (100%)

Today's Poll - 11/20

Another riding poll from Cible Recherche, completing the round-up of three Mauricie ridings. I also found out a little more about this poll. A total of 1,201 people were questioned, roughly 400 in each riding. The three ridings in Mauricie are now updated on the Mauricie riding page, and all three are going from the ADQ to the PQ and the PLQ.

Taking the three polls in the Mauricie together, we get the following result:

PQ 40.7%
PLQ 35.0%
ADQ 18.7%
PVQ 2.3%
OTH 2.0%
QS 1.3%

That has to be a disappointing number for the ADQ, considering that in those three ridings their popular vote average was 39.9% in the 2007 election.

Riding Projections - Chaudière-Appalaches

These are the final projections for selected ridings in the region of Chaudière-Appalaches.

Beauce-Nord - Janvier Grondin (ADQ)
Beauce-Sud - Robert Dutil (PLQ)
Chutes-de-la-Chaudière - Marc Picard (ADQ)
Frontenac - Laurent Lessard (PLQ)
Lévis - Gilles Lehouillier (PLQ)
Lotbinière - Sylvie Roy (ADQ)
Montmagny-L'Islet - Norbert Morin (PLQ)

You can click on the image to see it in greater detail, and the comparison of results to projections are below.



Janvier Grondin of the ADQ won in Beauce-Nord as projected, but his 49.9% was far more than the projected 37.7%.

The PLQ won in Beauce-Sud as projected, with 43.4% instead of the projected 40.6%.

Marc Picard of the ADQ won in Chutes-de-la-Chaudière as projected, with 44.5% instead of the projected 36.2%.

The PLQ won in Frontenac as projected, with 56.7% instead of the projected 46.0%.

The PLQ won in Lévis as projected, with 38.8% instead of the projected 35.5%.

The ADQ won in Lotbinière as projected, with 43.8% instead of 35.1%.

The PLQ won in Montmagny-L'Islet as projected, with 51.9% instead of the projected 44.4%.

Result: 7 for 7 (100%)

Today's Polls - 11/19

Three polls today, one from Léger Marketing and Le Devoir and two riding polls done in the Mauricie region. As the information I have does not list the polling results for the PVQ and QS in these two ridings, I have distributed the non-PLQ/PQ/ADQ vote to the PVQ and QS according to the current Rest-of-Quebec projection.

We have a seat projection change, with the PLQ moving from 60 to 61 seats and the PQ from 52 to 51. We also have some popular vote changes:

PLQ +0.60
PQ +0.01
QS -0.08
OTH -0.08
ADQ -0.13
PVQ -0.31

The high/low in projected seat possibilities has also changed:

PLQ = 40 to 72 seats (+1)
PQ = 39 to 65 seats (=)
ADQ = 1 to 27 seats (=)

There are also no changes in the individual riding projections, though a few races are becoming closer between the PLQ and the PQ. The two Mauricie ridings are projected to be lost by the ADQ, which will be a tough hit to take considering that Sébastien Proulx of Trois-Rivières is #3 in the party after Mario Dumont and Gilles Taillon (who may also lose his seat).

Riding Projections - Mauricie

These are the final projections for selected ridings in the region of the Mauricie.

Champlain - Noëlla Champagne (PQ)
Maskinongé - Jean-Paul Diamond (PLQ)
Saint-Maurice - Claude Pinard (PQ)
Trois-Rivières - Danielle St-Amand (PLQ)

You can click on the images to see them in greater detail. The comparison of result to projection is below.



The PQ won in Champlain as projected, with 40.9% instead of the projected 37.9%.

The PLQ won in Maskinongé as projected, with 42.2% instead of the projected 36.0%.

The PQ won in Saint-Maurice as projected, with 41.4% instead of the projected 37.4%.

The PLQ won in Trois-Rivières as projected, with 40.1% instead of the projected 36.3%.

Result: 4 for 4 (100%)

Riding Projections - Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean

These are the final projections for the region of the Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean.

Chicoutimi - Stéphane Bédard (PQ)
Dubuc - André Michaud (PQ)
Jonquière - Sylvain Gaudreault (PQ)
Lac-Saint-Jean - Alexandre Cloutier (PQ)
Roberval - Denis Trottier (PQ)

You can click on the images to see them in greater detail, and a comparison of results to projections are below.



The PQ won in Chicoutimi as projected, with 46.0% instead of the projected 44.8%.

The PLQ won in Dubuc as was not projected, with 42.9% instead of the projected 37.1%.

The PQ won in Jonquière as projected, with 47.7% instead of the projected 41.2%.

The PQ won in Lac-Saint-Jean as projected, with 55.6% instead of the projected 50.4%.

The PQ won in Roberval as projected, with 46.4% instead of the projected 44.3%.

Result: 4 for 5 (80%)

Riding Projections - Capitale Nationale

These are the final projections for the region of the Capitale Nationale.

Charlesbourg - Michel Pigeon (PLQ)
Charlevoix - Pauline Marois (PQ)
Chauveau - Sarah Perreault (PLQ)
Jean-Lesage - André Drolet (PLQ)
La Peltrie - France Hamel (PLQ)
Louis-Hébert - Sam Hamad (PLQ)
Montmorency - Raymond Bernier (PLQ)
Portneuf - Michel Matte (PLQ)
Vanier - Patrick Huot (PLQ)

You can click on the image to see them in greater detail and the comparison of projections to results are below.



Charlesbourg was won by the PLQ as projected with 42.4% of the vote, slightly more than the projected 38.0%.

Pauline Marois won Charlevoix with 52.2% of the vote, more than the projected 44.8%.

Gérard Deltell won in Chauveau, which was counter to my projection. His 43.6% result differs greatly from my 32.0% projection.

The PLQ won in Jean-Lesage as projected, the 41.7% result close to the 39.1% projection.

Éric Caire defied the projection and won in La Peltrie with 38.8%, more than the projected 30.3%.

Sam Hamad won in Louis-Hébert as projected, with 48.8% of the vote instead of the projected 41.8%.

The PLQ won in Montmorency as expected, with 36.5% of the vote instead of 33.9%.

Portneuf went to the PLQ as projected, with 39.6% of the vote. I projected 39.6% of the vote as well. A perfect match!

Finally, Vanier went Liberal as expected, with 38.3% of the vote instead of the projected 34.7%.

Result: 7 for 9 (78%)

Riding Projections - Laurentides

These are the final projections for selected ridings in the region of the Laurentides.

Argenteuil - David Whissell (PLQ)
Bertrand - Claude Cousineau (PQ)
Prévost - Gilles Robert (PQ)
Deux-Montagnes - Benoît Charette (PQ)

You can click on the image to see them in greater detail. Comparison of results to projections are below.



The PLQ won in Argenteuil as projected, with 49.5% instead of the projected 42.3%.

The PQ won in Bertrand as projected, with 49.0% instead of the projected 40.7%.

The PQ won in Prévost as projected, with 44.2% instead of the projected 41.8%.

The PQ won in Deux-Montagnes as projected, with 43.1% instead of the projected 37.2%.

Result: 4 for 4 (100%)

Today's Polls - 11/15

To make things easier, I am now including regional projections into my riding projection calculations. So, here you can see CROP's regional breakdown as well as national.

The seat projection remains the same, but the PLQ is close to being bumped up to 61 and the ADQ is close to sinking to 12. The popular vote projection changed by the following amounts:

PVQ +0.31
PLQ +0.30
QS +0.04
OTH +0.03
ADQ -0.33
PQ -0.36

In terms of seat possibilities, the high/low is now:

PLQ = 39 to 71 seats (+1)
PQ = 39 to 65 seats (-1)
ADQ = 1 to 27 seats (-1)

There is no change in the individual riding projections, aside from a few points here and there. Their pages will be updated as I add new projections.

You might be wondering why my electoral projections don't swing around as much as others. That is because my model is conservative when it comes to new polls and takes into account old polls and electoral performances.

Today's Poll

This poll was released on November 12 by Environics, but it is a bit of an old poll. The polling took place between September 24 and October 21, and so its weight is not very high in my calculation. Nevertheless, it did change the popular vote totals:

PLQ +0.24
PQ +0.22
OTH -0.03
QS -0.12
PVQ -0.14
ADQ -0.17

The highest and lowest possible seat projections are now the following:

PLQ - 39 to 70 seats
PQ - 39 to 66 seats
ADQ - 1 to 28 seats

The most significant seat calculation change goes to the ADQ who have dropped from 13.15 seats to 12.94. They have been consistently dropping. My model works under the assumption that people vote differently from what they tell pollsters and that the best indication of how people will vote is how they voted in the last election. I have trouble believing the ADQ can go from 31% to 14% in less than two years, and my model reflects that by giving them 17.82% of the vote. But, if more polls show the ADQ as in the low teens, their projected total will reduce as well. You can argue with a handful of polls but not a torrent.

None of the individual riding projections changed hands, so I won't be updating them immediately but they will be updated in the next few days.

UPDATE: The Montérégie ridings page has been updated.

Riding Projections - Bas-Saint-Laurent

These are the final projections for selected ridings in the region of the Bas-Saint-Laurent.

Kamouraska-Témiscouata - Claude Béchard (PLQ)
Rivière-du-Loup - Mario Dumont (ADQ)

You can click on the image to see them in greater detail, and the comparison of results to projections below.



Claude Béchard won Kamouraska-Témiscouata as projected, but surpassed the 44.7% projection with 53.7% of the vote.

Rivière-du-Loup also went to Mario Dumont, as expected. His 51.8% result was far more than the projected 39%.

Result: 2 for 2 (100%)

Riding Projections - Lanaudière

These are the final projections for selected ridings in the region of Lanaudière.

Berthier - André Villeneuve (PQ)
Joliette - Véronique Hivon (PQ)
L'Assomption - Scott McKay (PQ)
Rousseau - François Legault (PQ)
Terrebonne - Mathieu Traversy (PQ)

You can click on the image to see them in greater detail. The comparison of results to projections are below.



The PQ won in Berthier as projected, with 42.5% instead of the projected 37.3%.

The PQ won in Joliette as projected, with 46.1% instead of the projected 38.8%.

The PQ won in L'Assomption as projected, with 42.8% instead of the projected 38.8%.

The PQ won in Rousseau as projected, with 56.7% instead of the projected 44.8%.

The PQ won in Terrebonne as projected, with 45.1% instead of the projected 41.6%.

Result: 5 for 5 (100%)

Today's Poll

Finally, we have a new poll in the midst of this election. It comes from Léger Marketing and appeared in Le Journal de Montréal, The Gazette, and on TVA.

With these new numbers, the PQ has moved up to 52 seats and the ADQ down to 13, while the PLQ remains steady at 60.

In terms of the popular vote, the biggest winner is the PQ who is up 0.65%. The PVQ is next with +0.26%, and the PLQ with +0.08%. The ADQ and QS have fallen, the former by 0.12% and the latter by 0.25%.

It also worth noting that in two of the scenarios the PLQ do form a majority, with between 64 and 69 seats. In its best-case-scenario the PQ can form government with 65 seats, but is short of a majority by four in its next-best-case-scenario. Even in its worst-case-scenario, however, the PQ still improves with 39 seats. And the ADQ, even if it is very lucky, is still projected to only win at most 28 seats. In a worst-case-scenario, Mario Dumont will be the sole MNA.

As will always be the case, you can go to the individual riding pages to see the new projections based on this new poll. When posting new polling numbers, I will also make mention of any riding changes. In this case, there are no changes in my projections.

Also as always, you can click on the image for more detail.

Riding Projections - Montérégie

These are the final projections for selected ridings in the region of Montérégie.

Borduas - Pierre Curzi (PQ)
Brome-Missisquoi - Pierre Paradis (PLQ)
La Prairie - Marc Savard (PLQ)
Marguerite-D'Youville - Monique Richard (PQ)
Richelieu - Sylvain Simard (PQ)
Saint-Hyacinthe - Émilien Pelletier (PQ)
Soulanges - Lucie Charlebois (PLQ)
Taillon - Marie Malavoy (PQ)
Vachon - Camil Bouchard (PQ)
Verchères - Stéphane Bergeron (PQ)

You can click on the images to see them in greater detail. Comparison of results to projections are below:



The PQ won in Borduas as projected, with 47.6% instead of the projected 43.3%.

The PLQ won in Brome-Missisquoi as projected, with 49.1% instead of the projected 46.6%.

The PLQ won in as was not projected, with 44.8% instead of the projected 36.9%.

The PQ won in Marguerite-D'Youville as projected, with 39.8% instead of the projected 37.3%.

The PQ won in Richelieu as projected, with 47.0% instead of the projected 42.9%.

The PQ won in Saint-Hyacinthe as projected, with 38.1% instead of the projected 38.2%.

The ADQ won in Shefford as was not projected, with 34.8% instead of the projected 24.7%.

The PLQ won in Soulanges as projected, with 46.3% instead of the projected 42.9%.

The PQ won in Taillon as projected, with 46.3% instead of the projected 41.1%.

The PQ won in Vachon as projected, with 48.4% instead of the projected 39.1%.

The PQ won in Verchères as projected, with 55.4% instead of the projected 49.7%.

Result: 9 for 11 (81%)

Riding Projections - Gaspésie

These are the final projections for selected ridings in the region of Gaspésie.

Iles-de-la-Madeleine - Jeannine Richard (PQ)
Gaspé - Annie Chouinard (PQ)
Matane - Éric Plourde (PLQ)

You can click on the image to see them in greater detail. The comparison of results to projections are below.



The PLQ won in Iles-de-la-Madeleine, which was not projected, with 49.9% instead of the projected 40.2%.

The PLQ won in Gaspé, which was not projected, with 56.1% instead of the projected 43.0%.

The PQ won in Matane, which was not projected, with 58.0% instead of the projected 41.5%.

Not a great record in my native region.

Result: 0 for 3 (0%)

Riding Projections - Estrie

These are the final projections for selected ridings in the region of Estrie.

Johnson - Étienne-Alexis Boucher (PQ)
Mégantic-Compton - Johanne Gonthier (PLQ)
Orford - Pierre Reid (PLQ)
Saint-François - Monique Gagnon-Tremblay (PLQ)
Sherbrooke - Jean Charest (PLQ)

You can click on the image to see it in greater detail, and the comparison of results to projection are below.



The PQ won in Johnson as projected, with 40.3% instead of the projected 38.1%.

The PLQ won in Mégantic-Compton as projected, with 45.3% instead of the projected 42.7%.

The PLQ won in Orford as projected, with 43.5% instead of the projected 43.3%. Very close!

The PLQ won in Saint-François as projected, with 47.0% instead of the projected 46.4%.

The PLQ won in Sherbrooke as projected, with 45.2% instead of the projected 45.9%.

Result: 5 for 5 (100%)

Riding Projections - Montréal

These are the final projections for selected ridings in the region of Montréal.

Crémazie - Martin Cossette (PLQ)
Laurier-Dorion - Gerry Sklavounos (PLQ)
Mercier - Daniel Turp (PQ)
Saint-Henri-Sainte-Anne - Marguerite Blais (PLQ)

You can click on the images to see them in greater detail. The comparison of result to projection is below.



The PQ won in Crémazie as was not projected, with 44.6% instead of the projected 38.9%.

The PLQ won in Laurier-Dorion as projected, with 42.6% instead of the projected 46.6%.

QS won in Mercier as was not projected, with 38.1% instead of the projected 20.4%.

The PLQ won in Saint-Henri-Sainte-Anne as projected, with 45.9%, an exact match to the projected 45.9%.

Result: 2 for 4

Individual Riding Projections

I have started to post the individual riding projections. I will be tackling these one at a time, starting with the ridings with the smallest margin of victory in 2007. Today that would be Rouyn-Noranda-Témiscamingue, where I project Johanne Morasse of the Parti québécois will keep her seat.

Riding Projections - Abitibi-Témiscamingue

These are the final projections for selected ridings in Abitibi-Témiscamingue.

Abitibi-Est - Alexis Wawanoloath (PQ)
Rouyn-Noranda-Témiscamingue - Johanne Morasse (PQ)
Ungava - Luc Ferland (PQ)

You can click on the image to see them in greater detail, and after the image you will see a comparison of these projections with the final result.



Abitibi-Est was not won by the PQ in the end, but by the PLQ. The PLQ candidate had 45.7% of the vote compared to 43.1% for the PQ candidate. The ADQ received 8.9%, well below my projection.

Rouyn-Noranda-Témiscamingue was also won by the PLQ rather than the PQ with 42.3% to 35.1%. The ADQ candidate got 16.8%.

Ungava was won by Luc Ferland as projected. His result of 47.3% was not far from the projection of 45.3%. The 34.6% for the PLQ was lower than the 37.7% I projected.

Result: 1 for 3 (33%)

The 39th General Quebec Election to begin today

Premier Jean Charest is on his way to visit the lietenant governor general to start the election campaign.

You can count on ThreeHundredEight.com to follow the polling numbers very closely.

November 2008 Numbers

With each passing month, the poll weighting has to be updated. So, here are the new November 2008 numbers. No changes for the seat projection, but the popular vote projection has changed.

The PLQ has risen from 38.83% to 39.12%, the PQ from 32.78% to 33.09%, and the ADQ from 17.96% to 18.11%. The losers are the PVQ and QS, who have lost 0.15 and 0.03 points respectively.

Though the PLQ has bumped up its popular support to more than 39%, it has actually lost 0.1 points in the seat projection calculation. This is because the PQ has bumped up as well, and a stronger PQ (whose vote is more heavily-concentrated in the seat-rich regions) means more seats.