Monthly Picture: February 2009

The model looks at all polls taken recently that still have some weight. This can extend back several months. I also include past electoral results to "ground" the polling numbers. However, this means the projection is always relatively conservative and doesn't swing widely due to a few recent polls.

I thought it would be interesting to look at what my projection would be based solely on polls taken within the same month. Since March isn't over and it is possible a new poll will come out, I'll start with February. It will also give a basis of comparison with the March results.

The average national support each party received in the four February polls (totaling 3,881 interviews) was:

Conservatives - 34.0%
Liberals - 32.0%
New Democrats - 15.5%
Greens - 9.3%
Bloc Quebecois - 8.8%

Now, for each region, here are the average popular support followed by the seat projection based on those numbers:

BRITISH COLUMBIA (one poll)

Conservatives - 48.0% - 27
Liberals - 24.0% - 8
New Democrats - 20.0% - 1
Greens - 6.0% - 0

ALBERTA (one poll)

Conservatives - 70.0% - 28
Liberals - 17.0% - 0
Greens - 7.0% - 0
New Democrats - 4.0% - 0

PRAIRIES (one poll)

Conservatives - 55.0% - 23
Liberals - 22.0% - 4
New Democrats - 15.0% - 1
Greens - 8.0% - 0

ONTARIO (four polls)

Liberals - 40.5% - 56
Conservatives - 34.8% - 38
New Democrats - 16.3% - 12
Greens - 9.3% - 0

QUEBEC (four polls except Strategic Counsel for BQ and GPC)

Bloc Quebecois - 40.3% - 51
Liberals - 25.8% - 16
Conservatives - 16.8% - 7
New Democrats - 11.8% - 1
Greens - 4.7% - 0

ATLANTIC (two polls)

Liberals - 47.5% - 24
Conservatives - 29.0% - 6
New Democrats - 22.0% - 2
Greens - 2.0% - 0

So, with these numbers (and assuming 2 wins in the North for the Liberals and 1 for the Conservatives), the February projection is:

Conservatives - 130
Liberals - 110
Bloc Quebecois - 51
New Democrats - 17

So, the February results show stronger performances by the Liberals and the Bloc, but weaker for the NDP and the Conservatives. Once March is finished, I imagine the projection for that month will be even closer.