Projection Update

Along with the Ipsos-Reid poll referred to yesterday, CROP has released a Quebec-only poll. It was taken between June 11 and June 18 and involved 1,003 interviews. The results:

Liberals - 35%
Bloc Quebecois - 31%
New Democrats - 17%
Conservatives - 13%

Terrific number for the NDP and a bad one for the Bloc. But we've seen how varied the polling results can be for these two parties in the province. This poll would have resulted in 42 Bloc Quebecois seats, 26 Liberal seats, four Conservative seats, and three New Democrats.

Moving on to the Ipsos-Reid poll yesterday, the seat results would have been:

Liberals - 122
Conservatives - 116
Bloc Quebecois - 50
New Democrats - 19

The Liberal number is down because of the close vote in Ontario, but with 40 seats in Quebec and Atlantic Canada, the Liberals would form government with this poll. The Tories manage to stay close with 46 seats in Ontario. The New Democrats are saved from complete irrelevance thanks to seven seats in Atlantic Canada.

The short-term projection has changed slightly, with the Conservatives and Bloc gaining 0.2 points nationally, while the Liberals, NDP, and Greens lose 0.2 points each. This translates into two seat gains by the Tories and the New Democrats, with four seat losses by the Liberals and one by the Bloc Quebecois.

The long-term projection hasn't moved in terms of seat totals, but nationally the Tories have gained 0.1 points and the New Democrats have lost 0.1 points. Regionally, the only significant movements were by the NDP and Bloc. The NDP lost 0.3 points in British Columbia but gained that amount in Quebec. The Bloc lost 0.3 points in that province.

We're seeing things gel nicely as we move into the summer. One thing is clear: the race is a tight one. The Tories and the Liberals are neck-and-neck, but the edge goes to the Liberals. Would a four-seat plurality be worth an election call by Ignatieff?

We've also seen the NDP start to bounce back from hitting a floor over the past few months. I might be going out on a limb, but I feel that we might see the NDP move back to 25 or so seats during the summer. I don't believe the Liberal and Conservative numbers will move very much, but a wild card could be in Quebec. Will the Bloc start to slide into the low-30s, as shown by the CROP poll? Or will they improve into the high-30s, as shown by the Ipsos-Reid poll? Things to watch.

CROP also had a provincial poll in Quebec, so check out CentVingtCinq later today for a projection update.