New Angus-Reid Poll: 3% Conservative Lead

Angus-Reid has released a new poll today, taken between July 16 and July 17 and involving 1,007 interviews. The national results:

Conservatives - 33%
Liberals - 30%
New Democrats - 18%
Bloc Quebecois - 11%
Greens - 6%

While it does give the Tories a lead, it actually marks a drop from 36% from the last Angus-Reid poll that was released not much more than a week ago. The Liberals have remained steady, while the NDP and Bloc get good results. The Greens are low.

Regionally, some notable results include a 29% for the NDP in the Prairies, placing them in second behind the Tories at 50%, and a small Liberal lead of 38% to 36% in Ontario. The NDP scored 17% in the province, a strong result for them. In Quebec, the Bloc is doing well with 39%, the Liberals are steady at 30%, and the Tories show a weak 13%. Atlantic Canada, which shows a Conservative lead of 37% over the NDP at 35% and the Liberals at 23%, is probably an outlier result. The Tories remain in front in BC (40%) and Alberta (63%).

This poll would result in the following seat totals:

Conservatives - 131
Liberals - 95
Bloc Quebecois - 51
New Democrats - 31

The odd Atlantic result throws things out of whack (12 Conservative seats, 11 Liberal, and 9 NDP) but as long as the Tories have a competitive result in Ontario these are the kinds of results we see.

The poll also asked about who would make the best Prime Minister. We haven't had one of those since April! So, finally, the Best PM chart has been updated. It shows Stephen Harper at 34% (up one), Michael Ignatieff at 27% (down one), and Jack Layton at 16% (up one). The actual result in the AR poll was 26% for Harper, 22% for Ignatieff, 13% for Layton, and 19% for "none of these".

The leaders were also rated on issues, and Harper came out on top for the economy (31%) and crime (34%). Layton was on top for the environment (27%) and health care (23%), and Ignatieff placed first on foreign affairs (30%).

This isn't a good poll for the Liberals, but it is a very good poll for the Conservatives, NDP, and Bloc. However, considering that the previous poll put the Conservatives ahead by six points, this is actually good news for the Liberals.