Weekly Projection Update: Conservatives by Two

The projection has been updated, and there have been some significant changes. Part of the reason for these changes is that I have tweaked the weight of past elections slightly in order to make them more uniform.

What we have is the Conservatives down three seats, the Liberals up two, and the NDP up one. This puts the race very close, at 118 Conservative seats to 116 Liberal seats. In all likelihood, a situation like this would have some sort of Liberal-NDP co-operative government or even a true coalition, but for now the Projected Parliament will remain in Tory hands.

The Conservatives have lost one seat each in British Columbia, Alberta, the Prairies, and Atlantic Canada but have gained one seat in Ontario. The Liberal gains come in British Columbia, Alberta, and the Prairies but they have also lost one seat in Ontario. The NDP seat gain comes, appropriately enough, in Atlantic Canada.

The national support level has flipped and the Conservatives now have the lead, thanks to a 0.1 point gain and 0.2 point Liberal loss. The NDP and Bloc Quebecois are also up 0.1 points nationally.

Regionally, the Conservatives have seen losses of 1.1 points in British Columbia, one point in Alberta, 0.3 points in the Prairies, and 0.4 points in Atlantic Canada.

The Liberals have made gains of one point in British Columbia and Alberta and 0.8 points in the Prairies.

The NDP has lost 0.3 points in British Columbia and 0.8 points in the Prairies.

The Greens have shown gains of 0.6 points in British Columbia and the Prairies, 0.5 points in Alberta, and 0.7 points in Atlantic Canada.

Things are extremely close, to say the least.