Weekly Projection Update: Conservatives by Six

So, there have been no seat changes in the projection over the last week. There has been some movement in projected support, however.

At the national level, the Greens are this week's big winners. They've picked up 0.2 points, and now stand at 9.4%. The Bloc Quebecois has lost 0.1 points at the national level, and the Liberals have lost 0.2. They now stand at 32.5%, less than half-a-point behind the Conservatives who are at 32.9%.

There were some large (greater than 0.3) regional movements as well.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives and Liberals each lost 0.4 points. The NDP gained 0.3 and the Greens, still benefiting from the May announcement of her choice of riding, have picked up 0.6 points. The breakdown there is now:

Conservatives - 35.2% - 19 seats
Liberals - 28.4% - 12 seats
New Democrats - 23.1% - 5 seats
Greens - 12.8% - 0 seats

Quebec also saw some significant movements. The NDP and the Greens made the most gains, with 0.4 and 0.3 points, respectively. The Liberals and the Bloc, on the other hand, each lost 0.3 points. The Quebec projection now looks like:

Bloc Quebecois - 36.4% - 49 seats
Liberals - 31.1% - 20 seats
Conservatives - 15.0% - 5 seats
New Democrats - 10.8% - 1 seat
Greens - 6.6% - 0 seats

The Prairies saw the NDP drop 0.3 points and Atlantic Canada saw the Conservatives lose 0.3 points to the NDP. Alberta, Ontario, and the North saw very little movement in support.

It's been an interesting week for polls, to say the least. But when you look at all of them together, you still see very little movement in public opinion for the time-being. That is to be expected; it's summer. Once Parliament starts up again in September, things could start moving. And, of course, there is the possibility of an election - which some Liberals are saying won't happen after all.

For the purposes of drama and blog traffic, I hope that isn't the case.