First, EKOS.
Taken between October 21 and October 27 and involving 3,220 Canadians, here are the national results:
Conservatives - 38.4%
Liberals - 26.8%
New Democrats - 16.7%
Greens - 9.9%
Bloc Quebecois - 8.2%
Nothing much new in these numbers. In British Columbia, the Conservatives are at 36.8%, followed by the NDP at 28.9% (very good) and the Liberals at 25.0% (good). The Greens are at 9.3%.
In Alberta, the Conservatives lead with 62.9% followed by the NDP at 13.2% and the Liberals at 13.1%.
In the Prairies, it's 51.9% for the Tories, 24.6% for the Liberals, and 18.5% for the NDP. A weak number for the NDP here.
In Ontario, the Conservatives have 41.4% of the vote, the Liberals have 31.2%, and the NDP has 15.5%. Again, nothing much new here.
The Bloc seems to have taken a hit in Quebec, and stands at 33.5%. The Liberals follow with 23.8% and the Conservatives with 22.5%. The NDP is at 11.6%.
In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals have 38.0%, the Tories have 32.3%, and the NDP has 22.1%.
Of note, however, is that the Liberals have the lead in Vancouver (33.6% to 32.2% CPC), Toronto (37.6% to 36.5% CPC), and Montreal (29.2% to 28.6% BQ).
The poll would result in the following seat totals:Conservatives - 147
Liberals - 83
Bloc Quebecois - 46
New Democrats - 32
The poll also asked whether each party leader should remain as leader or be replaced. Stephen Harper got 45% support to stay, while 40% said he should be replaced. The split was 31% to 46% for Michael Ignatieff and 51% to 25% for Jack Layton. Obviously, Layton has the best number here, while Ignatieff's is troublesome.
More troubling, however, is when this question is broken down by party support. 85% of Conservatives think Harper should stay, while only 10% think he should be replaced. 72% of New Democrats think Layton should stay, while only 17% think he should be replaced. But only 55% of Liberals think Ignatieff should stay compared to 26% who think he should be replaced.
Now, Angus-Reid.
Taken between October 23 and October 24 and involving 1,001 Canadians, this poll found the following national support:
Conservatives - 40%
Liberals - 26%
New Democrats - 17%
Bloc Quebecois - 9%
Greens - 7%
Very similar to the EKOS findings. The regionals, however, are quite different.
In British Columbia, the Conservatives have a decent lead with 43% followed by the Liberals at 27% and the NDP at 25%. The Greens had only 2%.
In Alberta, the Conservatives are down to 52% while the Liberals are up to 23%. The NDP is at 9%.
In the Prairies, the Tories have an unbelievable 73%. The Liberals have 11% and the NDP has 9%.
In Ontario, it is 41% CPC, 31% LPC, and 17% NDP. Similar to EKOS.
The Bloc are doing well in Quebec in this poll, with 40%. The Conservatives are next with 21% and the Liberals are close behind with 20%. The NDP is at 15%.
In Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives lead with 35%, the Liberals are next with 32%, and the NDP is in third with 26%.
This poll would result in the following seat totals:Conservatives - 152
Liberals - 78
Bloc Quebecois - 52
New Democrats - 26
Phew! Now that this is all out of the way, I'll do a projection update tomorrow morning.
