New Environics Poll: 12-pt Conservative Lead

The people over at Environics Research Group have very kindly sent me an early look at their most recent polling results. Taken between October 15 and October 21 and involving 2,000 Canadians, these are the national results:

Conservatives - 38%
Liberals - 26%
New Democrats - 16%
Greens - 10%
Bloc Quebecois - 8%

As Environics points out in their press release, these are very similar results to the 2008 election campaign, which was exactly one year ago. So, back to square one.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives are below-average with 34%, while the NDP (at 29%) and Liberals (at 24%) are both doing well. The Greens are at 13%.

Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba are amalgamated into the "Prairies" for Environics, so I can't use those numbers.

In Ontario, the Conservatives are at 40%, the Liberals are at 32%, the NDP is at 15%, and the Greens are at 11%. For the Conservative and Liberal results, those closely match today's Ipsos-Reid poll.

In Quebec, the Bloc is at 36% followed by the Liberals at 24%, the Conservatives at 19%, and the NDP at 10%. A good gap for the Bloc while the Conservatives are seemingly sliding back from their recent +20% numbers.

In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals and Conservatives are tied at 31% apiece. The NDP is close behind at 26%.

Not a bad poll for the NDP, and another good one for the Tories. Using my own projected seat totals for Alberta and the Prairies, this poll translates into the following seat totals:

Conservatives - 142
Liberals - 83
Bloc Quebecois - 49
New Democrats - 34

So, a virtual carbon copy of the 2008 election. The only real difference is that the small NDP drop gives the Liberals a few extra seats.

Thanks again to Environics for the sneak-peek!