The Bloc has a very strong lead, and is at their 2008 level. This score is inflated, however, by the weak Liberal number. They are tied with the Tories who are also at 2008 levels.The New Democrats are riding high at 17%, while the Greens are at only 5%.
The francophone vote (which is the decider in the vast majority of Quebec ridings) is solidly Bloc, at 44%. The Conservatives follow at 20% (indicating they are still doing well in the Quebec City region) while the Liberals and NDP are at 16%.
In the Montreal region, the Bloc leads with 38%. The Liberals are down to 23%, the NDP is at 16%, and the Conservatives are at 15%. This means the Bloc will be able to hold on to what it has on the island, and will keep everything around it.
A bit of a surprise is that the Conservatives are back in the lead in the Quebec City region, with 38%. The Bloc follows with 26% and the NDP, not the Liberals, are third with 19%. The Liberals are at 12% there. So, it will be a Tory-Bloc contest in the old capital, but the Tories have the advantage - and a surprisingly big one.
In terms of seats, this would give the Bloc 50, the Liberals 14, the Conservatives 9, and the NDP 2.
None of this is new for Quebec, however. The Bloc has been steady for almost the entire year, while the Liberals have lost some ground and the Conservatives are back where they were a year ago. The NDP is making some strides forward, but whether that will translate into actual votes is another question.
