This is significant, because it bumps the Conservatives up to 141 seats and qualifies them for what I call a Strong Minority Government. Why? Because now the second and third parties, the Liberals and the Bloc Quebecois, are unable to out-vote the government by themselves. The combined Liberal and Bloc total is now 139 seats.The Conservatives had a decent two week period, picking up a seat in the Prairies and in Atlantic Canada. Their biggest gain comes in Quebec, where they are up 0.5 points. They've also gained 0.2 points in Atlantic Canada and 0.1 points in British Columbia and the North. They are stable in Alberta but have actually dropped 0.1 points in Ontario. Nationally, they are up 0.1 points to 36.5%.
The Liberals did not have a good two-weeks, though it could've been worse. They're down a seat in the Prairies and Quebec, and down 0.2 points nationally to 28.4%. They did not make any gains anywhere, but suffered no losses in Alberta and - more importantly - Ontario. They dropped 0.1 points in the North and Atlantic Canada, 0.2 points in the Prairies, 0.3 points in British Columbia, and a whopping 0.8 points in Quebec.
The Bloc performed well, gaining 0.2 points in Quebec and a seat. They are now at 50 seats and 37.4% in the province. Nationally, though it doesn't really mean anything, they are up 0.1 points.
The NDP lose a seat in Atlantic Canada, but were otherwise pretty stable. They gained 0.3 points in the Prairies and 0.2 points in Ontario and Quebec. Those last two are good signs for the party. They were stable in Atlantic Canada, the North, and British Columbia, but lost 0.1 points in Alberta.
Finally, the Greens did not move much, though they are up 0.2 points nationally. They gained 0.1 points in British Columbia, Alberta, and the North. They were stable in Ontario but lost 0.1 points in the Prairies and Quebec and 0.3 points in Atlantic Canada.
Despite some major issues (Copenhagen and Afghanistan), the Conservatives have managed to stabilise their position. The Liberals aren't gaining any ground but seem to have slowed their decline. The NDP is also making baby-steps forward, despite the seat loss in this projection (which actually has more to do with Conservative gains in Atlantic Canada than NDP losses). The Bloc is slowly moving upwards at the expense of the Liberals while the Greens are not making their presence felt anywhere.
It looks like status quo after a year of this Parliament. Undoubtedly there will be little change over Christmas.
