Two Years of Polling

As my regular readers know, ThreeHundredEight has now been in operation for over two years. The site began just shortly after the last federal election in October 2008. I think 2011 will be an exciting year in politics, and it will also be an exciting year for ThreeHundredEight.

Since February 2009, I've been averaging out polling results from each month. I've recorded them in a chart that only included the averages at the national level and for Ontario and Quebec. With today being the last year of 2010, it seemed fitting to expand that chart to include all six regions of the country. For simplicity's sake, I've also rounded all of the averages to the nearest full number.

The chart below tells the story of Canadian politics since January 2009. Click on it to see it magnified.This past year has featured incredible stability. The Conservatives have only fluctuated between 32% and 35%, while the Liberals have been between 27% and 31% and the NDP between 15% and 17%.

But 2009 had huge variations, the Conservatives polling between 32% and 39%, and the Liberals between 26% and 35%. The NDP were relatively stable.

Regionally, the greatest variations appear to have taken place in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada.

In Ontario, the Liberals held the lead between January and August 2009, only to lose it and see the Conservatives roar ahead to more than 40% between September and November. Since then, the two parties have been trading the lead back and forth.

In Quebec, the Liberals were very competitive for most of 2009, faltering in October. They even came within three points of the Bloc Québécois in May 2009. The Bloc has been steady, while the Conservatives have also been steady except for the blip in support from October to December 2009.

In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals lost their lead in October 2009, regaining it in January. It was a close race until this past July, but the contest is getting closer again. You can also see that the NDP has fallen away steadily since last December.

I will update this chart regularly. It acts as a great look at how things have been going over the past 24 months.

All the best to you and yours for the next 12 months. I hope the year will bring happiness and success to all!

Provincial NDP drops, PCs now lead by four in Manitoba

A poll by Probe Research released before Christmas shows that the Progressive Conservatives have widened the gap between themselves and the governing New Democrats to four points, outside of the poll's margin of error.When we last heard from Probe in September, the two parties were in a statistical tie. But the Progressive Conservatives have held steady at 42% since then, while the New Democrats have dropped two points to 38%.

The Liberals gained three points and stand at 15%, while 5% of Manitobans supported an "Other" party in this telephone poll.

The Progressive Conservatives hold the advantage in most demographics: males, voters aged between 18 and 34 and those older than 55, Manitobans of all education levels, and voters who earned more than $60,000 per year. The NDP is tied with the PCs among women and voters between the ages of 35 and 54, while the New Democrats lead among Manitobans who earn less than $60,000 per year.

The Progressive Conservative lead is based mostly on their strength outside of the provincial capital. Up one point since September, the PCs lead with 54%, compared to 29% for the NDP (-3) and 13% for the Liberals (+5).

The New Democrats lead in Winnipeg with 44%, down two from September, while the Progressive Conservatives are down one point to 34%. The Liberals have gained three points in the capital, but still trail well behind at 17%.

This poll would give the Progressive Conservatives 30 seats and a slim majority government. The New Democrats would win 26 seats while the Liberals would elect only one MLA.

If these close numbers hold throughout 2011, the provincial election next year will be one to watch. The New Democrats have been in power for a long time now but Premier Greg Selinger has yet to demonstrate that he can win an election for his party. Will the Liberals recover from Kevin Lamoureux's departure? Can the Hugh McFadyen's Progressive Conservatives be part of the blue wave that seems to be sweeping over the country at the provincial level?

BC Liberals and NDP still neck-and-neck

A pre-Christmas poll by Angus-Reid put the BC Liberals and BC New Democrats tied at 38% apiece, an unchanged situation from a poll taken earlier in the month. But the picture appears to be clearer as to who will lead the respective parties in a few months.Angus-Reid's last poll in early December put the BC Liberals and BC NDP at 36%, so this represents a growth of two points for each of the parties.

The BC Greens have taken a step back, down two points to 12%, while the BC Conservatives are at 7%, up one.

The BC New Democrats lead in most parts of the province. They're ahead of the BC Liberals on Vancouver Island (43% to 31%), in the Interior (39% to 35%), and in the North (35% to 31%). That's a gain of seven points and five points for the NDP on Vancouver Island and in the Interior, respectively, but a loss of seven points in the North.

The BC Liberals lead in and around Vancouver with 43% (+4) to 35% for the NDP (-2). They've lost three points on Vancouver Island and seven in the North, but have gained four in the Interior.

The BC Greens are performing best in and around Vancouver with 14%, up one, while they've dropped eight in the Interior. The BC Conservatives were steady in Vancouver but grew outside of the city, gaining 13 points in the North.

With these regional results, the BC New Democrats would win 43 seats and form the slimmest, almost non-existent majority. The BC Liberals would win 42 seats. A dysfunctional assembly, most likely.

The BC New Democrats would win their seats almost evenly across the province, with 15 in Metro Vancouver, 13 on Vancouver Island, 11 in the Interior, and four in the North.

The BC Liberals would win the bulk (26) of their seats in and around Vancouver, with another 11 seats in the Interior, four in the North, and one on Vancouver Island.

Christy Clark appears to have solidified her lead as the front-runner for the next leader of the BC Liberals. She's a "good choice" for 46% of British Columbians (+5 since early December), but more importantly is a "good choice" for 66% of BC Liberal supporters, a gain of 15 points. Kevin Falcon is still in second, a "good choice" for 28% of British Columbians and 45% of BC Liberal supporters.

The picture is a little murkier for the BC New Democrats, but Mike Farnworth appears to be the front-runner. He's a "good choice" for 40% of British Columbians (+6) and 49% of New Democratic supporters (also +6). Adrian Dix is the runner-up at 24% and 37%, respectively.

These provincial "good choice" numbers virtually mirror the results of the 2009 election, indicating that Clark and Farnworth could bring things back to square one.

Federal Liberals gain in Manitoba

A Probe Research poll conducted for the Winnipeg Free Press shows that, while the Conservatives have remained steady, the Liberals and New Democrats have swapped second and third places.Compared to Probe's federal poll in December 2009, the Conservatives have lost two points but still lead with a healthy 48%. That is only one point less than the party had in the 2008 federal election.

The Liberals, however, are up five points to 26%, a gain of seven points since the election. It's the New Democrats who have suffered, dropping three points since December 2009 and five points since the October 2008 election. They now trail in third with 19%.

The Greens are down two points from last year and the last election with 5%.

Compared to Probe's last federal poll from September, there has been little change.

The Conservatives are leading in all demographics, as well as in Winnipeg and outside of it.

In the provincial capital, the Conservatives remain unchanged since last year with 43%. The Liberals have made a big gain, jumping eight points to 32%. Note that this poll was taken in the midst of the by-election campaign, so it could be capturing some of the enthusiasm that got Kevin Lamoureux elected in Winnipeg North. The NDP is down seven points to 19% in the city.

Outside of Winnipeg, the Conservatives have a commanding lead with 56%, though that is a drop of three points from a year ago. The Liberals are up two to 19%, while the NDP is up one to 16%.

No one would have guessed it to be the case a few months ago, but Manitoba may just be one of the provinces to watch in the next federal election. Will the Liberals be able to hold on to Winnipeg North? Will they be able to expand their bridgehead in the province? And how will the NDP fare? There are a few potentially interesting story lines to look out for in Manitoba this year.

Canadians up for election, believe it will result in another minority

It appears that the talk of an election in 2011 is not idle chatter among Ottawa politicos who would enjoy the spectacle (i.e., me). A new poll by Angus-Reid shows that Canadians also believe that an election will take place in 2011. And what's more, they seem to be down with it.

Fully 49% of Canadians agree that a federal election should take place in 2011, compared to 34% who disagree. Taking out the "not sures", that puts 59% of decided Canadians in favour of holding an election in 2011. That's quite a bit more than we usually see in these types of polls. Canadians seem to be coming around to the idea of holding an election. It's unlikely they've warmed up to elections themselves, but have grown a little tired of the Parliament that currently exists and the constant speculation and electoral threats. In other words: s**t, or get off the pot.

However, it's supporters of opposition parties who most want an election. Only 37% of Conservative supporters agree an election should take place next year, compared to 58% of Liberal and New Democratic supporters and 65% of Bloc Québécois supporters. It appears that Conservative supporters aren't too confident that Stephen Harper will be able to improve his party's position - otherwise they'd be clamoring for another trip to the polls. The opposition, on the other hand, is perhaps a little over-confident.

Rumour is reality for 57% of Canadians, the number of people surveyed who believe that an election in 2011 is likely. For my part, I'm on the fence. There are a lot of indications that an election will take place in 2011, but there were plenty of indications that we were going to go in 2009 and 2010, too. While an election in 2011 would not surprise me, I would also not be surprised if this Parliament passes naturally in 2012.

Angus-Reid also asked respondents what outcome they would prefer, and what they think is most likely. While the results are interesting, they don't tell us anything new:A Conservative majority, aside from the "not sure" grouping likely made up of a lot of NDP and Bloc supporters, is the most popular option at 26%. A Liberal majority comes up second with 16%, a Liberal minority gets 13%, and a Conservative minority gets 10%.

Few Canadians, it seems, want the next election to have the same result as the last.

But these numbers aren't anything that Conservative supporters should be extra happy about. Adding up the two totals gives us 36% who prefer a Conservative government of some kind and 29% who prefer a Liberal government of some kind. That is, generally speaking, where the two parties currently are in voting intentions. The remaining 35% can be easily divided up into NDP, Bloc, and Green voters.

In terms of what is most likely, 37% are fans of ThreeHundredEight and believe that it is a Conservative minority. Another 12% believe a Conservative majority is in the cards, while 10% see a Liberal government forming after the next election and only 6% of very optimistic people see a Liberal majority as most likely.

This means that 47% of Canadians believe the next election will end up in a minority, while only 18% believe it will end up in a majority. And yet, they still want to head to the polls.

That 42% responded that they preferred a majority government is, I believe, absolutely irrelevant. Those who want a Conservative majority certainly don't want a Liberal majority, and vice-versa.

When asked whether respondents would be satisfied with various outcomes, it appears that about 1/3 of Canadians are just fine with whatever happens. If the next election ends up with a Conservative majority, 34% would be satisfied. If it ends up with a Conservative minority or an NDP-Liberal coalition that doesn't have the support of the Bloc, 31% would be satisfied.

It takes a little bit out of the argument that Canadians are 1) hoping for a Conservative majority or 2) are very afraid of a coalition government.

However, when the Bloc is entered into the equation, only 25% would be satisfied with the outcome, while 50% would be dissatisfied. Lumping in the Bloc with the coalition appears to make some political sense, but without any cross-tabs we can't know how many of the dissatisfieds are Bloc supporters who chafe at the idea of their party aiding in the governing of Canada and supporting two federalist parties.

The poll sets the stage for a 2011 election. It isn't an idea that turns Canadians off, despite their agreement that after it is all said and done, we'll probably have the exact same outcome as we did in 2008.

There will be no blog update tomorrow, or over the weekend. I should be back next week with some British Columbia and Manitoba provincial polls, as well as some other neat things. Merry Christmas to some of you, and for the rest of you have a good long-weekend-where-everything-is-closed.

UPDATED - BC Liberals pull ahead

The Mustel Group conducted a poll recently for Global Television, reported on as well by the Vancouver Sun. It shows that, after all the turmoil of the HST and the Campbell resignation, the BC Liberals have regained the lead in the province.When we last heard from the Mustel Group in mid-November, the BC New Democrats were in the lead. But after a gain of four points since that poll, the BC Liberals are in front with 41%. The BC New Democrats have dropped six points and now trail with 36%. But with the MOE of 4.4 points, it is potentially a very close race.

The BC Greens are up five points to 15%, while the BC Conservatives are down two points to 7% in this telephone poll.

Respondents were also asked about their preferences for the next leader of the BC Liberals. Christy Clark was the favourite among British Columbians as a whole, but also among BC Liberal supporters. Kevin Falcon was second.

UPDATE/CORRECTION: My original seat projection (64 BC Liberals, 20 BC New Democrats, one Independent) posted earlier today was incorrect. Thanks to commenter DL for pointing out that my projection needed to be double-checked. I neglected to change my baseline in my model to province-wide numbers. Instead, I was using the 2009 electoral results from one region as my baseline. My apologies for the error.

The result of this poll be almost a complete replica of the 2009 electoral result, with the BC Liberals winning 50 seats and the BC New Democrats taking 35. That contrasts greatly with the 52 NDP to 31 Liberal seats that were projected for Mustel's last poll by ThreeHundredEight.

The BC Liberals would win 26 seats in and around Vancouver, 15 in the Interior, five in the North, and four on Vancouver Island.

The BC New Democrats would elect 15 MLAs in and around Vancouver, 10 on Vancouver Island, seven in the Interior, and three in the North.

While polls had originally shown that Gordon Campbell's departure would not have changed the situation much, it appears that either people have changed their minds or the turmoil within the BC New Democrats turned enough people off to give the BC Liberals the advantage once again. But the governing party should beware: if the BC Greens go back to the 8% they got in the 2009 election, the BC New Democrats could be running neck-and-neck with the Liberals again.

We could very well see a provincial election after the leadership campaigns are completed in February and April, so a lot of eyes will remain glued to these numbers over the next few months.

November Best and Worst Case Scenarios

I'll try to be a bit more timely with these monthly averages and best/worst case scenarios in the future. But for now, it's time to look at the best and worst case scenarios from the month of November.

These best and worst case scenarios calculate each party's best and worst projection results in each region.

For example, if the Conservatives had their best result in the western provinces in an Angus-Reid poll, their best result in Ontario in a Nanos poll, their best result in Quebec in a Léger poll, and their best result in Atlantic Canada in an EKOS poll, I would take each of these bests and combine them.

In other words, these projections are the best and worst possible results each party could have gotten had an election taken place last month, based on the available polling data.

These best and worst case scenarios are in terms of total seats only, and not necessarily about how a party would fit in with the others in Parliament.

Let's start with the New Democrats. They had a decent month, and improved their range over October's best and worst case scenarios. They are still, however, stuck in a fourth-place spot in the House of Commons.

With 24.1% of the vote, the best case scenario for the NDP is a total of 50 seats. The Conservatives would still end up with the greatest number of seats, with 122. The Liberals would win 85 and the Bloc 51.

The NDP would win 16 seats in British Columbia, one in Alberta, five in the Prairies, 19 in Ontario, two in Quebec, and seven in Atlantic Canada. It would put them in a good position to form a coalition with the Liberals, but together they would still be short of a majority.The worst case scenario for the NDP would result in the party earning only 13.9% of the vote and 22 seats, while the Conservatives would form a minority government with 139. The Liberals would win 96 and the Bloc 51 seats.

The NDP would win six seats in British Columbia, none in Alberta, two in the Prairies, 11 in Ontario, one in Quebec, and two in Atlantic Canada.

This puts the New Democratic range at between 13.9% and 24.1% of the vote and between 22 and 50 seats. That's an improvement over October's range of 13.6% to 20.9% of the vote and 21 to 43 seats.

The Liberal best case scenario is just short of a plurality: 110. The Conservatives, meanwhile, would still win 111 seats. But such a close result would give each party an equal chance at forming government. The NDP would win 36 seats and the Bloc would win 51.

With 31.3% of the vote, the Liberals would win 12 seats in British Columbia, two in Alberta, six in the Prairies, 49 in Ontario, 16 in Quebec, and 23 in Atlantic Canada.The worst case scenario would be slightly worse than the party's result in 2008. With only 23.2% of the vote, the Liberals would win 73 seats. The Conservatives would still be short of a majority with 140 seats, while the NDP would win 41 and the Bloc 54.

The Liberals would win four seats in British Columbia, none in Alberta, one in the Prairies, 37 in Ontario, 13 in Quebec, and 16 in Atlantic Canada. It would be a bad result for the party, as even the tiniest step backwards from 2008 would be a complete failure.

The Liberal range for November would have been 23.2% to 31.3% of the vote, and 73 to 110 seats. The range has gotten larger compared to October, when the Liberals had a range of 24.5% to 31.1% of the vote and 75 to 108 seats.

Now, the Conservatives. Still no majority for them in the cards, as their November best case scenario would only give the party 147 seats. The Liberals would win 85 seats and the NDP 27, while the Bloc would win 49 seats.

With 38.4% of the vote, the Conservatives would win 20 seats in British Columbia, 28 in Alberta, 23 in the Prairies, 54 in Ontario, nine in Quebec, and 12 in Atlantic Canada. It would put the Tories very close to a majority, and so they would likely be able to hang on to power against a weakened NDP and an only marginally larger Liberal caucus, but it would be the same-old situation.The Conservatives' worst case scenario would result in only 107 seats, but it would still give them a six-seat margin over the Liberals. The Bloc would win 53 seats and the NDP 47. It would be very difficult for the Tories to remain in power with this result.

With 29.2% of the vote, the Conservatives would win 13 seats in British Columbia, 26 in Alberta, 19 in the Prairies, 38 in Ontario, five in Quebec, and five in Atlantic Canada.

The Conservative range for November was between 29.2% and 38.4% of the vote and between 107 and 147 seats. It isn't a huge amount of change from October's range of 29.6% and 37.6% of the vote and between 113 to 147 seats.

The NDP and Liberals have a lot to gain with these numbers - the NDP would win a huge number of seats and have a lot of influence in Parliament, while the Liberals would have a good chance at forming a (weak) minority government. But Michael Ignatieff could also preside over the party's worst-ever performance, while Jack Layton could bring his party back to pre-2004 levels.

The Tories didn't have much to gain in November. A handful of extra seats and a handful of extra votes, but no majority. They could also risk losing their government to the Liberals or a combination of the Liberals and New Democrats.

I've already crunched the numbers for December, but in case a poll is released between Christmas and the New Year (though that is extremely unlikely), I'll hold off until early January. But from what I've seen, December has been a very bad month for the New Democrats and a very good month for the Conservatives.

November Polling Averages

A little late, but let's take a look at November's polling. Seven national polls were released during this month (one fewer as last month), totaling about 10,230 interviews. Here are the results we get at the national level, with the difference from last month's average in brackets.

Conservatives - 33.3% (-0.4)
Liberals - 28.2% (-0.4)
New Democrats - 17.2% (+1.2)
Bloc Québécois - 9.6% (-0.2)
Greens - 9.6% (+0.1)
Others - 2.4% (+0.8)

The Conservatives have dropped back to exactly 1 in 3 support, but that is simply a reversal of October's gains. The Liberals, meanwhile, are down 1.4 points since September, while the NDP is up two points over that time frame.

The seat projection for these results is as follows, with the difference from last month in brackets:

Conservatives - 128 (-2)
Liberals - 93 (-2)
Bloc Québécois - 53 (-1)
New Democrats - 34 (+5)
Greens - 0 (unchanged)

The Conservatives lose two seats after three months of gains, while the NDP has gained eight seats since September.The regional results, with difference from last month in brackets:

BRITISH COLUMBIA (7 polls - about 880 people)

Conservatives - 31.8% (+0.4)
New Democrats - 27.7% (unchanged)
Liberals - 23.7% (+0.6)
Greens - 13.9% (-1.2)
Others - 2.9%

The Conservatives have reversed, slightly, a downhill trend in the province. The New Democrats are steady. The Liberals, meanwhile, are back up after losing almost three points in October. The Greens are down after two months of gains. The Conservatives would win 16 seats (unchanged from last month), while the New Democrats would win 11 and the Liberals nine, also unchanged.

ALBERTA (6 polls - about 740 people)

Conservatives - 58.1% (+0.3)
Liberals - 20.4% (+1.6)
New Democrats - 9.8% (-1.4)
Greens - 8.9% (-0.3)
Others - 2.8%

The Conservatives increase their lead after losing ground in October, while the Liberals replace their previous month's losses at the expense of the NDP. The Greens have now lost 2.4 points over the last three months. The Conservatives would win 27 seats (unchanged), while the Liberals would win one (unchanged).

PRAIRIES (6 polls - about 530 people)

Conservatives - 42.8% (-3.8)
New Democrats - 23.7% (+4.8)
Liberals - 22.3% (-0.5)
Greens - 9.4% (+0.9)
Others - 1.8%

The Conservatives drop big in the region, while the Liberals take a more modest step backwards. The New Democrats have taken advantage, reversing the losses they had suffered in September and October. The Conservative drop one seat and win 20, while the Liberals and New Democrats win four each, an increase of one for the NDP.

ONTARIO (7 polls - about 3,430 people)

Conservatives - 36.8% (-1.5)
Liberals - 34.5% (-1.1)
New Democrats - 16.9% (+1.3)
Greens - 9.8% (+0.6)
Others - 2.0%

The Conservatives drop after two months of gains, while the Liberals have lost 1.1 points for the second consecutive month. Conversely, the NDP has gained 1.3 points for two months straight. The Conservatives would win 49 seats (-2), the Liberals would win 43 (-1), and the NDP 14 (+3).

QUEBEC (8 polls - about 3,950 people)

Bloc Québécois - 38.4% (-1.1)
Liberals - 22.6% (-0.8)
Conservatives - 16.4% (+1.9)
New Democrats - 13.3% (+1.8)
Greens - 7.5% (-1.0)
Others - 1.8%

The Bloc has erased their gains of October, while the Liberals have lost 1.5 points since September. The Conservative gain still puts them below their September numbers. The Bloc would win 53 seats (-1), while the Liberals would win 15 (unchanged), the Conservatives would win six (+1), and the New Democrats one (unchanged).

ATLANTIC CANADA (7 polls - about 640 people)

Liberals - 35.8% (-3.1)
Conservatives - 30.5% (-2.9)
New Democrats - 22.9% (+3.2)
Greens - 9.6% (+3.2)
Others - 1.2%

After two months of gains, the Conservatives take a step backwards. But the Liberals do as well. The beneficiary appears to be the NDP, but also the Greens. The Liberals would win 19 seats (-1), the Conservatives nine (unchanged), and the NDP four (+1).

In terms of net gains or losses in the six regions, the Conservatives come out last with a net loss of 5.6 points. Losing ground in Ontario is especially problematic, but they seem to have rectified that so far in December. Ditto for Atlantic Canada.

Next are the Liberals, who had a net loss of 3.3 points. Dropping in Ontario and Quebec, two provinces in which they need to do better, is disastrous.

Then we have the Bloc, who lost 1.1 points in Quebec. They still hold a huge lead, however.

On the winning side of the ledger, we have the Green Party with a net gain of 2.2 points. They were down in British Columbia, however.

And November's winner has to be the New Democrats, with a net gain of 9.7 points. gains came in the Prairies, Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada. All good spots for them.

Much ventured for only slight Conservative polling gain in 2010

As MPs head back to their ridings for a long winter’s nap, the Conservatives end the year on an upswing, extending their lead over the Liberals to almost six points as the party makes gains throughout the country at the expense of Michael Ignatieff, the Bloc Québécois and the New Democrats.

The rest of the article can be read on The Globe and Mail website. It will be my last article for The Globe and Mail until 2011. It includes a round-up of polling for all of 2010, and before the end of the year I will post a more detailed version of the chart here on ThreeHundredEight.

I also have a column in today's The Hill Times, which starts thusly:

After eight months of political monotony and a rock solid five-point Conservative lead, recently several polling firms have given us something completely different to consider over the holidays: have the Tories rebuilt the 11-point lead that almost won them a majority government in 2008?

If you have a subscription to the paper, you can read the article here. If you don't, you're in luck: The Hill Times is offering a free two-week trial. There's a picture of me both on the cover and with my column, if that sweetens the deal for you.

I'll take this opportunity to update the projection. It's the subject of the G&M article and you can look at the fancy graphics there. I'll provide the nitty-gritty numbers here.Nationally, the Conservatives have gained 0.2 points and six seats, and now stand at 34.8% and 136 seats. The Liberals are down 0.2 points to 29.2%, but remain at 96 seats.

The New Democrats are down 0.6 points to 15.8%, and have lost five seats. They're projected to win only 24 now. The Bloc Québécois is up 0.3 points to 10.2% nationally, while the Greens are up 0.2 points to 8.7%.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives lead with 37% (+1.3), while the NDP is down 1.2 points to 24.9%. The Liberals are down 0.2 points to 23.8%, and the Greens are steady at 11.9%. The Conservatives are projected to win 21 seats in the province, up two, while the New Democrats are down two to seven. The Liberals are steady at eight seats.

The Conservatives have dropped 3.9 points in Alberta but still lead with 56.6% and 27 seats. The Liberals are up 2.4 points to 21.2%, and are projected to take one seat. The NDP is up 0.4 to 10.6%, while the Greens are up 1.1 points to 9.1%.

In the Prairies, the Conservatives have gained 2.6 points and one seat and lead with 47%. The Liberals are down 0.1 to 23.2%, while the NDP is down 1.5 points to 20.9%. They've also lost one seat. The Greens are down 0.3 points to 7.2%. The Tories are projected to win 21 seats, the Liberals five, and the NDP two.

The Conservatives have extended their lead in Ontario, and are up 0.6 points to 38%. The Liberals are down one point to 35.7%. The NDP is also down, 0.5 points to 15.7%, while the Greens are up 0.9 points to 9.5%. The Conservatives have gained two seats from the Liberals, and are projected to win 50 to the Liberals' 44. The NDP is steady at 12 seats.

The Bloc Québécois is up 0.6 points in Quebec to 39.3%. The Liberals are down 1.5 points to 22.7%, while the Conservatives are up 0.9 points to 17.2%. The NDP is also up, with a gain of 0.2 points to 13.2%. The Bloc has dropped one seat and is now projected to win 52, while the Liberals would win 15 (unchanged), the Conservatives seven (+1), and the NDP one.

In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals are up 3.5 points to 40.9%. The Conservatives are up 0.2 points to 33.5%, while the NDP is down 1.9 points to 18.6%. The Greens are also down, with a loss of 0.4 points to only 6%, their worst in the country. The Liberals are projected to win 21 seats here, two more than in the last projection. The NDP has dropped two seats to only two, and the Conservatives are steady at nine seats.

In terms of net gains and losses in the six regions, the Liberals come out on top with a net gain of 3.1 points. But all of the gains came in Atlantic Canada and Alberta. It's more important that they lost in the three battleground provinces of British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec.

The Conservatives had a net gain of 1.7 points, including gains in the three battlegrounds. The Greens had a net gain of 1.2 points, including gains in BC and Ontario. The Bloc gained 0.6 points in Quebec, while the NDP had a net loss of 4.5 points.

This certainly puts the Tories in a good position going into 2011. They aren't at their 2008 levels, but could easily springboard their way back to or past the 143 seats they won in that election. The Liberals and Bloc are also in a position to make gains, leaving the NDP in the most vulnerable position. But Michael Ignatieff might not survive a losing campaign, even if his party gains 19 seats.

Liberals and Conservatives sink in new EKOS poll

In EKOS's last poll of 2010, the Conservatives and Liberals have both dropped to the benefit of all three of the smaller parties.Compared to EKOS's last poll a week ago, the Conservatives have dropped 1.7 points and lead with 32%, similar to what Harris-Decima reported earlier this week. The Liberals, however, are down 2.7 points and trail with 26.5%.

The New Democrats are up 2.7 points to 17.1%, while the Greens are up 0.5 points to 10.9%. The Bloc Québécois stands at 10.6% nationally.

Down two points from a week ago, 14% of respondents in this automated telephone poll were undecided. EKOS reported a week earlier than usual because of the holiday season - we won't hear from them again until after the New Year.

The Conservatives are holding steady in Ontario, and have a narrow lead over the Liberals with 34.6% to 32.9%. That's a drop of one point for Michael Ignatieff's party. The NDP is up one point to 17% while the Greens are steady at 12.4%. The Conservatives lead in Ottawa with 42% to the Liberals' 38%, but are trailing in Toronto at 37% to 39%.

In Quebec, the Bloc is up four points and leads with 41.5%. The Liberals are down five big points to only 18.1%, a very low number for them. The Conservatives are up one to 17.5%, while the NDP is also up one, to 11.5%. The Bloc leads in Montreal with 41%, followed by the Liberals at 23%.

The Conservatives are down six points in British Columbia but still lead with 35.9%. The NDP is up one to 22.8%, while the Liberals are down five to 20.3%. The Greens made the biggest gain, up seven points to 16.4%. The Conservatives lead in Vancouver with 38% to the NDP's 20%.

Undoubtedly due to the small sample size in Atlantic Canada, the Liberals have dropped 21 points to 36.9%. The Conservatives are up 14 to 33.7% while the NDP is up nine to 22%. These are all more along the lines of what we'd expect out East.

In Alberta, the Conservatives are down 17 points to 45.6%, followed by the Liberals at 25.9% (+8) and the NDP at 15.4% (+9). The Conservatives lead in Calgary with 53% to the Liberals' 28%.

Finally, in the Prairies the Conservatives are holding steady at 44%. The NDP is up six to 24.7% and the Liberals are up eight to 22.7%.

The Conservatives would win 22 seats in British Columbia, 25 seats in Alberta, 20 seats in the Prairies, 46 in Ontario, seven in Quebec, and nine in Atlantic Canada for a total of 130. That's one fewer than the projection for EKOS's last poll.

The Liberals would win seven seats in British Columbia, two in Alberta, four in the Prairies, 43 in Ontario, 12 in Quebec, and 19 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 89. That's 11 fewer than last week.

The Bloc would win 55 seats in Quebec, three more than in EKOS's last poll.

The New Democrats would win seven seats in British Columbia, one in Alberta, four in the Prairies, 17 in Ontario, one in Quebec, and four in Atlantic Canada for a total of 34, nine more than last time.

There are a lot of similarities between this poll and the one released by Harris-Decima earlier this week. For example, the high Green number in BC and the (relatively) closer race in Alberta. It certainly adds fuel to the fire in terms of the debate between whether the Conservative lead has grown or whether it has remained about the same as it has been for most of the year.

I suspect this will be the last poll we'll see in 2010, but I will be updating the site as much as possible during the holidays. I won't lack material as I still owe you all November round-ups for polling results and best/worst case scenarios.

The next year should be very busy, as we'll have four provincial elections (Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, and Newfoundland & Labrador) and perhaps a federal campaign as well. British Columbia could head to the polls after their leadership races are over, and there are rumours of an early election in Alberta and Prince Edward Island. It'll be a big year.

Is a Tory majority even possible?

After months of stagnation, Conservative gains in some polls released over the last few weeks have again raised the possibility of a Tory majority. But an analysis of the ridings the Conservatives might target to attain or surpass the elusive 155-seat mark needed shows just how difficult it will be for Stephen Harper to reach his goal.

The rest of the article can be read on The Globe and Mail website.

I've written a couple of articles lately showing how dire things are for the Liberals and Michael Ignatieff. I thought it would be a good idea to look at the other side of the coin.

I get a kick (actually, I just get depressed at what it says about people) that in those earlier articles I was called a Conservative hack and part of The Globe and Mail's mission to keep Stephen Harper in power. This article has been up for less than an hour, and already the comments are filled with people saying I'm a Liberal and part of the MSM liberal agenda. I guess they didn't read my earlier pieces.

It happens here, too, though thankfully not directed at me too often. Polls good for the Conservatives are lampooned by some commenters, and polls good for the Liberals are rejected by others. They always tend to be the same people.

What is at the root of the driving need to comment on these sorts of things with nothing but partisan spin, especially when it isn't the person's job? There's an unhealthy obsession in some parts with the "bias" or "agenda" of a media outlet or polling firm. Opposing arguments are ignored or discarded based solely on who is making them. I'm sure it has always been like this, but in the internet age it has never been so public or so rampant.

I will have a post on yesterday's EKOS poll later this afternoon. There should be a projection update on Monday both here and on The Globe and Mail website as well.

Tory lead drops from five to two in new Harris-Decima poll

Harris-Decima's new poll shows national change within the margin of error, but the shifts that have taken place have narrowed the gap between the Conservatives and Liberals.Since we last heard from Harris-Decima, the Conservatives have dropped two points and now lead with only 31%. The Liberals are up one to 29%.

Certainly not the 11-point lead some other pollsters have reported over some of the same field dates.

The New Democrats are down two to 15%, while the Bloc Québécois is up two points to 11%. The Greens are up one point to 11% in this telephone poll.

The Conservatives, as usual, hold a large lead among men: 36% to the Liberals' 26% and the NDP's 12%. Something that we've also been seeing lately is that the Liberals lead among women, with 32% to the Conservatives' 26% and the NDP's 18%.

In Ontario, the Conservatives (+1) and Liberals (unchanged) are tied at 36%. The NDP is down three to 14% while the Greens are up one point to 12%.

The Bloc is up five points and leads with 44%, a very good number for them. The Liberals are up two points to 23% while the Conservatives are down two to 11%. The NDP is down one to 10%.

In British Columbia, the race is close. The Conservatives lead with 32% (-1), followed by the NDP at 24% (-4) and the Liberals (-5) and Greens (+9) at 21%. That is a very high number for the Greens.

The Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada with 42%, up nine points. The Conservatives have dropped 10 points to 35% here.

In Alberta, the Conservatives have dropped 14 points and lead with 47%. The Liberals are up seven to 24%. A 23-point gap would be a bit of a surprise in Alberta.

The Conservatives are up nine points in the Prairies to 48%, followed by the Liberals at 25%.

With this poll, the Conservatives would win 19 seats in British Columbia, 25 in Alberta, 21 in the Prairies, 47 in Ontario, three in Quebec, and nine in Atlantic Canada for a total of 125. That's one more than my projection for Harris-Decima's last poll.

The Liberals would win eight seats in British Columbia, two in Alberta, five in the Prairies, 48 in Ontario, 15 in Quebec, and 21 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 101. That's an increase of five seats over last time.

The Bloc would win 56 seats in Quebec, one more than October's projection for Harris-Decima.

The NDP would win eight seats in British Columbia, one in Alberta, two in the Prairies, 11 in Ontario, one in Quebec and two in Atlantic Canada for a total of 25, a drop of eight seats.

The Greens would win one seat in British Columbia.

And before anyone asks, you can't have the Conservatives drop 18 points in Alberta, with the Liberals gaining 13 points and the NDP one, without some consequences.

This result is closer to what EKOS has found recently. That gives us two polling narratives - are the Conservatives way in front or has the situation not changed? This poll doesn't show the Conservative gains in British Columbia that even EKOS has reported, but it does show that the Tories are performing well in Atlantic Canada.

So are we still heading to a spring election? It still does not appear that any party but the Bloc is likely to make any major gains, but an election could still be called just to change things up. There appears to be a bit of political exhaustion in Ottawa. A reset may be required, even if it changes very little.

Progressive Conservative projected majority diminishing in Manitoba

On December 7, Angus-Reid released a poll taken in mid-November in Manitoba. It shows marginal movement from their last poll taken in late August, but the movement that has taken place is not to the benefit of the challenging Progressive Conservatives.Compared to that last poll, Hugh McFadyen's Progressive Conservatives have lost three points and now lead with 46%. The New Democrats are up three points, and trail with 37%.

In other words, the gap has been reduced from 15 points to nine.

The Liberals, who currently hold only one seat in the legislature after Kevin Lamoureux's successful transfer to the federal level in last month's Winnipeg North by-election, are up one point to 13%. The Greens are steady at 4%.

It appears that the Progressive Conservatives are losing ground in all parts of the province, but that NDP gains have come only outside of the provincial capital.

The Progressive Conservatives are well ahead among men, and hold a narrow lead over Premier Greg Selinger's New Democrats among women.

But in Winnipeg, the NDP is on top. They've held steady since August at 41%, while the Progressive Conservatives have dropped three points to 39%. The Liberals are up one to 14%.

In the rest of the province, however, the PCs dominate. They've dropped five points but still lead with 54%. The New Democrats are up six to 32%, while Jon Gerrard's Liberals are steady at 11%.

With these poll numbers, the Progressive Conservatives would win a majority government with 32 MLAs, two fewer than my last Angus-Reid projection for Manitoba. The New Democrats have gained those two seats and would win 24 in total. The Liberals would win one seat.

Manitoba's next election is scheduled to be held on October 4, 2011. We could get a taste of things to come before then, if a by-election for Lamoureux's former riding of Inkster takes place.

A minority for Stelmach in Alberta

Environics is up with a new Alberta provincial poll, released earlier this month. It shows that the Progressive Conservatives and Wildrose Alliance are neck and neck.Compared to when we last heard from Environics in May, the Progressive Conservatives have held steady at 34%. The Wildrose Alliance, meanwhile, is up four points to 32%. With a margin of error of 3.1 points, that is a statistical tie.

The Liberals are down four points and are third with 19%, while the New Democrats are up one to 13%.

It's a four-way race in the provincial capital. The Progressive Conservatives are down two to 32% in Edmonton, followed by the Wildrose Alliance at 25% (+9) and the Liberals at 24% (-7). Even the NDP is in it, up two to 18%.

In Calgary, the Progressive Conservatives are up four points and lead with 36%. The Wildrose Alliance is up two to 33%, while the Liberals are down seven to 19%. The NDP is down one to 9%.

And in the rest of Alberta, the Wildrose Alliance leads with 37%, unchanged from May. The Progressive Conservatives are down four to 33%, the Liberals are up three to 15%, and the NDP is up two to 12%.

With a more concentrated and organized vote, the Progressive Conservatives would turn this two-point lead into 42 seats. That's three fewer than the projection quoted in the Calgary Herald (not done by me) from May. The Wildrose Alliance would win 28 seats, up 10, while the Liberals would win 12 and the New Democrats five.

The Progressive Conservatives would win 15 seats in Edmonton, six in Calgary, and 21 in the rest of Alberta.

The Wildrose Alliance would win no seats in Edmonton, 16 in Calgary, and 12 in the rest of the province.

The Liberals would win five seats in Edmonton, six in Calgary, and one in the rest of Alberta.

All five NDP seats would be won in Edmonton.

It would mean a minority government in Alberta, something the province has never seen in its history. If Premier Ed Stelmach is thinking of jumping the gun with a 2012 election, as some have suggested, I think this poll will make him think again.

BC Liberals back in the game

Angus-Reid released a new British Columbia poll recently, indicating that the leadership changes of the BC New Democrats and the BC Liberals have had a huge effect on voting intentions.Compared to Angus-Reid's last poll taken just before Gordon Campbell announced his impending resignation, the BC New Democrats have dropped 11 points and are now tied with the BC Liberals at 36%. That is a 10-point gain for the governing party. It's a huge shift in only five weeks.

The BC Greens are up four points to 14%, while the BC Conservatives are down four points to 6%. The departure of Campbell seems to have hit them particularly hard.

Others/Independents are at 8%, up one point in this online panel poll.

It's a very close race. The BC New Democrats lead among women, those aged 35-54, and those who earn less than $100,000 per year. The BC Liberals lead among men, those aged 18-34, and those who earn more than $100,000 per year. The two parties are tied among those aged 55 and older.

Both parties are retaining about 3/4 of those who voted for them in 2009. For the NDP, the Greens have taken the largest part of their lost support (38% of those who voted for the BC NDP in 2009 but do not intend to vote for them now), while 36% of lost BC Liberal votes are going to the BC NDP and 28% are going to the BC Conservatives.

It's a close race regionally as well. In and around Vancouver, the BC Liberals lead with 39% (+8) to the BC NDP's 37% (-7). The Greens are steady at 13%.

On Vancouver Island, the BC NDP has dropped 15 points but still leads with 36%. The BC Liberals are up nine points to 34%, while the BC Greens are up seven points to 15%.

In the Interior, the BC NDP and BC Liberals have swapped 11 points, but the New Democrats still lead with 34% to the Liberals' 31%. The BC Greens are up ten points to 18%, while the BC Conservatives have dropped 10 points to 8%.

Finally, in the North the BC New Democrats lead with 42%, down 15 points. The BC Liberals have gained 12 points and trail with 38%. Other/Independents are third with 9%.

With such a narrow gap in each region, the two main parties are statistically tied throughout British Columbia.

But the BC New Democratic vote is more efficient, and they would win 42 seats. It's only enough for a minority, unless the NDP can attract one of the two independents. The BC Liberals would win 41 seats.

Regionally, the BC New Democrats would win 20 seats in Vancouver, nine on Vancouver Island, nine in the Interior, and four in the North.

The BC Liberals would win 20 seats in Vancouver, five on Vancouver Island, 13 in the Interior, and three in the North.

The two independents would be elected in Vancouver and the North.

Of course, much depends on who the two parties choose as their respective leaders in early 2011. Among voters who cast their ballot for the BC Liberals in 2009, Christy Clark is the best option, as 51% consider her a "good choice". Kevin Falcon follows with 42%, while Mike de Jong (40%) and George Abbott (35%) are not far behind.

Among 2009's BC NDP voters, Mike Farnworth is a "good choice" for 43%. Gregor Robertson gets 35%, Adrian Dix 33%, and Jenny Kwan 29%. It appears that the BC New Democratic leadership race will be more divisive. This should come as no surprise, as internal division is what led Carole James to resign as leader of the party.

Léger finds ADQ growth provincially and stability among the federal parties

Léger Marketing released some provincial and federal polls today for Quebec. We'll go over both, but start at the provincial level, where there has been some movement.Compared to Léger's last provincial poll taken in early November, the Parti Québécois has dropped only one point, and still leads with 36%. The Liberals are down three points to 30%, while the Action Démocratique du Québec has taken the biggest step forward, gaining four points. They now stand at 15% support.

Québec Solidaire and the Greens are up one point apiece, to 9% and 7% respectively.

The Parti Québécois leads among francophones with 43%, down one point from early November. The Liberals have dropped five points to 20% in this demographic, while the ADQ is up five to 17%.

Among non-francophones, the Liberals dominate with 66%, up two points. The Greens are second with 12%, up three, while the Parti Québécois and ADQ are tied for third with 8%. That is steady for the PQ, but a gain of two points for the ADQ.

Regionally, the Liberals lead in and around Montreal with 35%, down one point. The Parti Québécois is up a point to 32%, while the ADQ is steady at 11%.

In and around Quebec City, the Parti Québécois has gained five points and leads with 37%, followed by the ADQ at 28% (+9) and the Liberals at 20% (-8).

Outside of these two cities, the Parti Québécois leads with 40%, down four points from early November. The Liberals have dropped three points to 26%, while the ADQ has taken some big strides forward with an eight-point gain. They now stand at 17%.

Among those with an opinion of who would make the best premier, Pauline Marois came out on top with 35% while Jean Charest was at 29%. Those results are virtually equal to their parties' support. Gérard Deltell of the ADQ, however, is at 19%, four points more than his party, and Amir Khadir of Québec Solidaire is at 16%, five points more than his party.

With this poll, the Parti Québécois would win 72 seats, three more than as a result of Léger's last poll. The Liberals would win 38 seats, 11 fewer, while the ADQ would win 13, eight more. Québec Solidaire would win two seats, unchanged from early November.

So, the PQ is still well out in front while the Liberals are trailing, bleeding support to some of the second and third tier parties. The ADQ seems to be benefiting the most, and Deltell could be capable of bringing the party back to the usual support Mario Dumont could command.

Now, to federal politics. Léger's poll doesn't show much change from last time, but that in and of itself is the most significant aspect.The Bloc Québécois has dropped two points and leads with 34%, a low result for them. The Liberals have dropped one point to 21%, joining the New Democrats who have remained stable.

That the NDP is at 21%, now tied for second in the province, was a remarkable result in early November. It is even more remarkable that the party is still at that high level of support.

The Conservatives are up one to 19%, and the Greens are up two to 5%.

The Bloc Québécois leads among francophones with 42%, down one point from Léger's last poll. The New Democrats are second with 22%, up two, while the Conservatives are at 18%, up three points. The Liberals have dropped four points among francophones to only 14%.

Among non-francophones, the Liberals have gained nine points and lead with 47%. The Conservatives are down eight to 22% and the New Democrats are down five to 17%.

In and around Montreal, the Bloc Québécois has gained four points and leads with 31%. The Liberals are up one to 28%, while the NDP is down five to 20%.

The Bloc Québécois has regained the lead in and around Quebec City with a nine point jump. They now lead with 36%. The Conservatives are down two to 25%, while the NDP is up one to 22%.

Outside of the province's two biggest cities, the Bloc Québécois leads with 38%, down 13 points. The NDP is next with 21%, up seven, while the Conservatives are up 10 points to 20%.

This poll would result in 49 Bloc Québécois seats (two fewer than last time), 15 Liberals, nine Conservatives, and two New Democrats. That is a two-seat gain for the Tories from Léger's previous poll.

While being at 21% is good news for the NDP, their support is too evenly spread out to turn that support into many seats.

The Bloc has high support everywhere, but particularly in the francophone parts of the province. The Liberals are strong in Montreal and particularly among anglophones, guaranteeing them a good chunk of seats. The Conservatives have their pocket of strength in Quebec City and surrounding areas.

The NDP, on the other hand, has almost even support among francophones and anglophones, and is at about 21% in all parts of Quebec. That might put them in a good position to finish a strong third or weak second in most of the province, but it won't put them over the top in many places.

Darrell Dexter faces minority amid Atlantic Canadian landslides

Atlantic Canadians in three provinces would re-elect their incumbent governments to huge, crushing majorities, according to recent polls from Halifax-based polling firm Corporate Research Associates. But voters in Nova Scotia would hand NDP Premier Darrell Dexter a minority government.

The rest of the article can be read on The Globe and Mail website.

Conservative jump in new Ipsos-Reid poll

Ipsos-Reid released a new poll on Friday, their first since the beginning of November. It shows a big gain for the Conservatives, with the New Democrats taking an equally big step backwards.Compared to Ipsos-Reid's last poll, the Conservatives have gained four points and lead with 39%. That is the highest score for the Tories in my model. Meanwhile, the Liberals are steady at 29%.

It is the New Democrats who've lost ground, down four points to a bare 12%, the lowest in my model.

The Bloc Québécois is up two to 10%, while the Greens are down two to 9%.

About 11% of respondents in this telephone survey were undecided, virtually unchanged from the last poll.

The breakdown by gender is notable. Ipsos-Reid has Conservative support among males at 47%, a huge number. The Liberals are only at 24%. But among women, the Liberals lead with 33% to the Conservatives' 31%.

There's been little change in Ontario, where the Tories have gained only one point and lead with 39%. The Liberals are unchanged at 34%, while the NDP is down three to 14%. The Greens, meanwhile, are up one to 11%.

In Quebec, the Bloc has gained six points and leads with 41%. The Liberals are down two to 22%, while the Conservatives are up the same amount to 21%. That is a very good result for the Tories in Quebec. The NDP is down four points to 7%, a very bad result.

The Conservatives have gained 10 points in British Columbia and lead with 44%. We've been seeing good Tory numbers in BC lately, so despite the big jump this isn't all that unusual. The Liberals are up three to 26%, while the NDP is down six to 18% and the Greens five to 12%.

The Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada with 44%. The Conservatives are up 11 points here, to 39%.

In Alberta, the Conservatives lead with 65%, followed by the Liberals at 16%, down six.

The Conservatives also lead in the Prairies with 49%, up 10 from early November. The Liberals follow with 28%, while the NDP is down seven to 19%.

With this poll, the Conservatives would win 25 seats in British Columbia, 28 in Alberta, 20 in the Prairies, 54 in Ontario, nine in Quebec, 10 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 147. That is 13 more than the projection from Ipsos-Reid's last poll.

The Liberals would win nine seats in British Columbia, none in Alberta, six in the Prairies, 41 in Ontario, 14 in Quebec, and 22 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 94. That's three fewer than last time.

The Bloc Québécois would win 52 seats in Quebec, three more than in early November.

The big loser of this poll, the New Democrats, would win only two seats in British Columbia, none in Alberta, two in the Prairies, 11 in Ontario, none in Quebec, and none in Atlantic Canada for a total of only 15 seats, 13 fewer than in Ipsos-Reid's last poll.

It's only one poll, of course, but these Ipsos-Reid numbers give us a look at what a one-on-one contest between the Conservatives and Liberals could be like.

This poll adds further evidence that the recent change we've seen in the numbers, that the Conservatives have moved out of their habitual five-point lead to something more substantial, is real. Growth in Conservatives support in British Columbia and Atlantic Canada in this poll, echoing some of the other polling results we've seen over the last few days, seem to be the cause. Why that is the case, however, is not clear.

Liberal growth in new EKOS poll

The new EKOS poll shows that the Conservatives have remained stable over the last two weeks, but also that the Liberals have made some gains at the expense of the New Democrats.Compared to EKOS's last public poll released two weeks ago, the Conservatives are up only 0.4 points to 33.7%. They did have a dip in EKOS's polling last week, when they were at 32.6%, but this is all oscillation within the MOE.

The Liberals have gained 2.1 points from two weeks ago, and now trail with 29.2%. The gain has come primarily in the last week of polling.

The New Democrats appear to have been sinking throughout the two weeks, and are down 2.2 points to 14.4%.

The Greens are up 0.9 points to 10.4%, while the Bloc Québécois is up 0.3 points to 9.8%.

EKOS uses an automated telephone polling system that manages to include both landlines and cell phones. The percentage of respondents who were undecided was 16%, virtually unchanged from two weeks ago.

The race remains close in Ontario, where the Conservatives have dropped one point but still lead with 35%. The Liberals are down two points to 34.4%, while the New Democrats are steady at 15.9%. The Greens are up three to 12.2%. The Tories lead in both Toronto and Ottawa, with 37.9% and 48%, respectively. The Conservative gain in Toronto may stem from, or be a record of, their by-election win in Vaughan. The Liberals trail (but are statistically tied) in those two cities with 36.9% and 42.6%.

The Bloc has gained a point in Quebec and leads with 38.4%, followed by the Liberals at 22.6% (down one). The Conservatives have gained three points and stand at 16.8%, while the NDP is down two to 11%. The Bloc leads in Montreal with 42%. The Liberals are at 21.8% there.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives have finally pulled away from the pack. They've gained six points over the last two weeks and lead with 42%. The Liberals trail with 25.3%, up 10 points, while the NDP is at 21.8%, down seven. The Greens are down five to 8.5%. However, note that in the first week of polling the NDP was leading the Conservatives 35% to 26%, so there is still a lot of polling volatility in the province. In Vancouver, the Conservatives lead with 45%. The NDP is second with 21.4%.

The Liberals score a huge number in Atlantic Canada, at 58.2%. That's a gain of 23 points, and obviously one that is a result of the small sample size and the 95% level of confidence. The Conservatives are second with 20%, down 19 points. The first week of polling had a more typical level of support for the Liberals (36%) and Conservatives (31%), but EKOS did still find the NDP well below 20% in both weeks.

In Alberta, the Conservatives lead with 62.7%, followed by the Liberals at 17.8%. The NDP has dropped five points to 6.1%. The race is surprisingly interesting in Calgary, where the Conservatives have 56.6% support to the Liberals' 29.2%.

Finally, the Conservatives have gained 13 points and lead in the Prairies with 47.5%, ahead of the New Democrats at 18.9% (down seven) and the Liberals at 15.3% (down 10).

This poll would result in 23 Conservative seats in British Columbia, 27 in Alberta, 23 in the Prairies, 46 in Ontario, seven in Quebec, and four in Atlantic Canada for a total of 131. That is only one more than the projection result of EKOS's last poll two weeks ago.

The Liberals would win nine seats in British Columbia, one in Alberta, one in the Prairies, 45 in Ontario, 15 in Quebec, and 27 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 100. That is eight more than two weeks ago, but the gain is primarily in the improbable Atlantic Canada result.

The Bloc would win 52 seats in Quebec, down one.

The NDP would win four seats in British Columbia, none in Alberta, four in the Prairies, 15 in Ontario, one in Quebec, and one in Atlantic Canada for a total of 25, down eight from two weeks ago. The drop took place mostly in British Columbia.

This poll puts a bit of a damper on the 7 to 11 point leads we've seen from other pollsters like Nanos and Angus-Reid. It also differs in that the Conservative strength is out West, whereas some of the other polls have shown surprisingly good Tory numbers out East.

Will this put out the flames of the rumours that we'll be heading into an election in January? Hard to say - each of the parties conduct their own polling and they probably pay more attention to those (unpublished) results.

Nevertheless, we've been blessed with an abundance of federal polling this week and it appears that no two polls tell the same story. That is a bit of a change from the last few months, where every showed almost the exact same thing. While this could just be methodologies and margins-of-error conflicting with one another, it could also indicate that Canadians are starting to be less sure in their voting intentions.

Ipsos-Descarie confirms massive PQ lead

Ipsos-Descarie, part of the Ipsos-Reid family, recently released a Quebec provincial poll taken in mid-November. It isn't without its problems, but adds fuel to the fire that Jean Charest is in a wee bit of trouble.We have no previous poll to compare this one to, so we shall look at it in isolation. Ipsos-Descarie did not distribute the undecideds, so I have done it instead. Portioning them out according to how decided voters responded, the Parti Québécois leads with 40%. The Liberals are well behind at 23%, while the Action Démocratique du Québec is doing very well at 17%.

Québec Solidaire continues to impress with 11%, while the provincial Greens are at 8%.

As my colleague on Quebec Politique points out, we haven't heard from Ipsos on Quebec for over four years. There are also a few problems with this poll.

It doesn't ask respondents which party they support, but rather "Which one of the following parties' candidates would you be most likely to support?" It is a very weird question to ask. Those aren't candidates - they are leaders.

Well, mostly. The poll included Guy Rainville as the "candidate" of the Greens and Benoit Renaud as the "candidate" of Québec Solidaire. Rainville announced his resignation in September, and Claude Sabourin was elected the new leader of the Greens on November 20, the day after this poll was out of the field. And Renaud is the official leader of the party according to Elections Quebec, though for all intents and purposes the two "spokespeople", Amir Khadir and Françoise David, are the two actual leaders. Renaud is a complete unknown. Nevertheless, it doesn't appear to have swayed responses too much, but we can't know for sure.

This was an online poll, using Ipsos-Reid's online opt-in panel. They report, however, that were this a standard random sample, the margin of error would be 2.7%.

In and around Montreal, the Parti Québécois and Liberals were tied at 33%, followed by the ADQ at 14% and Québec Solidaire at 10%.

There were no numbers for the Quebec City region, which shouldn't be too much of a surprise as the poll was conducted for Global Montreal. But in the "rest of Quebec", the Parti Québécois dominates with 46%, followed by the ADQ at 21% and the Liberals at 14%. It doesn't bode well for Liberal chances outside of the metropolis.

Among francophones, the PQ leads with 47%. The ADQ is second with 20%, while the Liberals are beating off Québec Solidaire with 14% to 12%.

Among anglophones (Ipsos-Descarie does not appear to have included allophones), the Liberals lead with a whopping 72%. The Greens are second, with 17%. The Parti Québécois garners only 1% support among anglophones. They are likely the most monolithic voting block in all of Canada.

With these polling results, the Parti Québécois would win a comfortable majority of 86 seats. The Liberals would form the Official Opposition with a bare 22 seats, while the ADQ would make some gains and win 15 seats. David and Khadir would be elected for Québec Solidaire.

The poll also asked some questions about language legislation and education. The most interesting result was for the question of whether the provincial government is doing enough to protect the French language. While 65% of francophones said the government is not doing enough, 86% of anglophones said it is. The two groups appear to be in disagreement.

This is a relatively old poll, so we can't read too much into it for the current political situation in Quebec. The PQ has been around 40% for months now, while this is the second poll to put the Liberals as low as 23%. It appears that the PQ is doing well but not as well as it could be doing, and that the second and third tier parties are benefiting. Recall that the combined vote of Québec Solidaire and the Greens in 2008 was a little less than 6%. According to this poll (and others), they are now at about 19% support, combined.

Angus-Reid poll brings us back two years

A new Angus-Reid poll gives each of the parties the exact same level of national support that they had at the end of the 2008 federal election. But a few regional differences would result in a marginally different House of Commons.Compared to Angus-Reid's last poll conducted at the end of October, the Conservatives have gained only one point, and now lead with 38%. The Liberals are unchanged at 26%, while the New Democrats are down one to 18%.

The Bloc Québécois is steady at 10%, while the Greens are up one to 7%.

UPDATE: Note, Angus-Reid reports a margin of error of 3.1. As they use an online panel, it is, according to organizations like the AAPOR, inappropriate to report a margin of error. I'll quote the American Association of Public Opinion Research on this:

AAPOR considers it harmful to include statements about the theoretical calculation of sampling error in descriptions of such studies, especially when those statements mislead the reader into thinking that the survey is based on a probability sample of the full target population. The harm comes from the inferences that the margin of sampling error estimates can be interpreted like those of probability sample surveys.

While it is the same situation in the top line numbers as in 2008, the regional breakdowns do show some shifts. Oddly enough, it seems to be a shift of Conservative support from West to East.

In Ontario, the Tories are up three points and lead with 44%. The Liberals are down one to 31%, while the NDP is down three to 16%. The Greens are up one to 8%. These results do echo some of the recent polls we've seen.

In Quebec, the Bloc is steady at 39%, while their opponents are all below 20%. The Liberals lead the pack with 19%, down five. They are followed closely by the Conservatives at 18% (+2) and the New Democrats at 17% (+3).

The Conservatives lead in British Columbia with 39%, up seven points from the last poll. The NDP is down seven to 30%, the Liberals are down three to 25%, and the Greens are down four points to 4%.

In Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives have jumped 12 points and lead with 41%. While normally this would be the result of a mere statistical anomaly, this isn't the first time that we've seen the Tories in front in Atlantic Canada. The Liberals are down five points here, and trail with 38%. The NDP is down four to 17%.

The Conservatives are down 12 points in Alberta, but still lead with 50%. The Liberals are riding very high at 22%, up six.

In the Prairies, the Tories are down 19 points to 51%, followed by the Liberals at 24% (+14) and the NDP at 22% (+7).

With this poll, the Conservatives would win 18 seats in British Columbia, 26 in Alberta, 22 in the Prairies, 64 in Ontario, seven in Quebec, and 11 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 149, up 13 from Angus-Reid's last poll. Short of a majority. I've said it once and I'll say it again: no majority without Quebec.

The Liberals would win seven seats in British Columbia, two in Alberta, four in the Prairies, 30 in Ontario, 13 in Quebec, and 19 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 77, down three.

The Bloc would win 53 seats in Quebec, unchanged from Angus-Reid's last poll.

The New Democrats would win 11 seats in British Columbia, none in Alberta, two in the Prairies, 12 in Ontario, two in Quebec, and two in Atlantic Canada for a total of 29, down 10 seats.

Clearly, the Conservative gain has come at the expense of the New Democrats. Being only six seats short of a majority would not be a bad position for Stephen Harper, and certainly one that would not mean the end of his leadership.

Speaking of which, Angus-Reid asked respondents whether the leaders of the various parties should be changed. Of his own supporters, Stephen Harper received the green light from 79% of Conservatives, compared to 14% who would like to see him go.

Jack Layton had a similar result, with 80% saying he should stay and only 9% of New Democrats saying it was time for a change.

Elizabeth May received the support of 64% of her voters, while Gilles Duceppe did the best of all with 86% saying he should stay as leader of the Bloc Québécois.

The worst performer was Michael Ignatieff. Only 38% of Liberal voters said he should remain leader of the party, compared to 46% who said it was time for him to go.

The bad news doesn't end there for Ignatieff. Only 14% of Canadians approve of his performance, compared to 47% who disapprove. That is a widening of the gap by six points compared to Angus-Reid's last poll. For Harper the numbers were 26% approval and 47% disapproval, not good either and an increase in the gap of three points. Jack Layton had the best result, with 25% approving and only 34% disapproving, though that did widen the gap by five points.

Angus-Reid also asked people to attach character traits to the four leaders in the House of Commons. Leaving aside those traits that have seen only a minor variation since the end of October (<5 points), we see a very bleak picture for the Liberal leader. The traits that grew by a significant amount for Stephen Harper were "efficient" and "strong", and for Jack Layton they were "compassionate", "strong", and "intelligent". The one trait to increase for Gilles Duceppe was "intelligent".

But for Ignatieff those that saw a big increase were "arrogant", "inefficient", "weak", "boring", and "out of touch". The one trait that had a large decrease was "intelligent".

While it is just a poll, the combination of factors makes this one of the worst ones I've seen for the Liberals recently. It argues that Michael Ignatieff has taken the party no further than Stéphane Dion did in 2008, and his leadership numbers are heading in the wrong direction. Poll-wise, it has been a very bad week for the Liberal leader.