Overall, not much change since Léger's last poll at the end of November 2009. At 41%, the Parti Québécois remains stable, while the Liberals (PLQ) have gained two points to close to within two points of the PQ. Québec Solidaire has managed to wrest away third place, and stands at 7% (no change from November). The Action Démocratique du Québec, at 6%, is down two points while the Greens (PVQ) are down two points as well.
It is worth noting that the Bloc Quebecois and the Parti Quebecois have managed to return to parity. In every demographic and region, the difference in support is no more than 2-points, except in Quebec City, and that likely because of the weakness of the ADQ.
The PQ dominates the francophone vote, 50% to the PLQ's 30%. The non-francophone vote is much more unanimous, however, with a massive 77% supporting the PLQ. The PVQ is actually second in this demographic, with 8%, followed by the PQ at 7%. The ADQ, at 1%, has been completely abandoned by non-francophones.
In the Montreal area, the PLQ has a slight lead over the PQ, 40% to 37%. QS is doing well, with 9%, and could elect Françoise David along with Amir Khadir next time around. The PVQ also hits above their weight in Montreal, with 7%. We saw indications of potential Green strength in Western Montreal in the last election. Apparently, for anglophones who do not like Jean Charest's Liberals, they are a safe alternative.
In Quebec City, the PLQ has a small lead as well, 37% to 35%. The ADQ has lost a lot of its strength in this region, with only 15% support. In the "Rest of Quebec", the PQ is well ahead with 47% to the Liberals' 39%. The ADQ, which also used to show strength in this area, is at a woeful 5%.
This means that the PLQ and PQ are in a death-grip in every part of the province, while the ADQ has been completed eradicated everywhere except (most likely) in the ridings that are currently represented by ADQ MNAs.
Here are my seat projections for this poll:
Parti Québécois - 66
Liberals - 57
Québec Solidaire - 2
That's it. No ADQ, who are wiped from the political map of Quebec. The PQ gains a slim majority. In the case of defections or retirements, the two QS MNAs ensure that the PQ would remain solidly in power.
With the ADQ dropping to the level of fringe party, politics in Quebec are returning to a two-horse race. However, there is still plenty of time before the next election. What happens federally can have a huge impact on what happens provincially.
