A projection update has the Conservatives dropping five seats, all picked up by the Liberals.However, at 131 seats, the Conservatives maintain a stable minority level of seats.
Nationally, the Conservatives have dropped 0.7 points to 34.2%, while the Liberals have gained 0.5 points and are at 29.1%. The NDP has dropped 0.1 points and stands at 16.1%, while the Greens and Bloc Quebecois remain stable at 9.9% and 9.4%, respectively.
The Conservatives had another bad two-week period. They've dropped in every part of the country, losing two seats in British Columbia and three in Ontario. Their biggest support drop was in Ontario, where they lost 0.9 points and are down to 36.4%. They also lost 0.8 points in the Prairies and 0.7 points in British Columbia. They lost 0.2 points in the North and 0.1 points in Alberta, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada. The drops in BC and Ontario hurt them.
The Liberals show decent growth, but it isn't huge. They gain one seat in British Columbia, three in Ontario, and one in Atlantic Canada. Their biggest gain is in Ontario, with 0.7 points. They are now at 36.1%, only 0.3 points behind the Tories. They also gained 0.3 points in British Columbia and 0.2 points in the Prairies, Atlantic Canada, and the North. They are up 0.1 in Quebec and stable in Alberta.
The NDP was up and down, depending on the part of the country. They gained one seat in British Columbia but lost another in Atlantic Canada. They showed gains in the Prairies (0.5 points) and British Columbia (0.1 points), but losses in Alberta (0.1), the North (0.1), Quebec (0.3), and Atlantic Canada (0.4). They were stable in Ontario, which is actually good news for them. They need to keep up their support in that province.
The Bloc gained 0.1 points in Quebec, and are at 38.1%. The gap between them and the Liberals is 13.1 points.
The Greens showed gains of 0.2 points in Atlantic Canada and 0.1 points in the North and Quebec, and losses of 0.1 points in Ontario and 0.2 points in Alberta. They had no movement in British Columbia and the Prairies.
There is no silver lining in this projection update for the Conservatives. With the way the polls are going for them in British Columbia, Quebec, and Ontario, they stand to drop well below 130 seats in the coming weeks.
The NDP is going nowhere fast, and seems to be stuck. The Bloc is steady, which at their level of support is good.
The Liberals have a lot to be happy about, but they aren't gaining to the extent that the Conservatives are losing. That could be a problem, as the NDP, Bloc, and Greens take some of the spoils.
