Voting Intentions of Manitoba Natives

This is an interesting poll from Probe Research, reported by the Winnipeg Free Press.

In short, the New Democrats, both federally and provincially, are the choice of Manitoban natives.

Provincially, the NDP has 57% support, followed by the Liberals at 21% and the Progressive Conservatives at 17%. Among the Métis, however, there is stronger support for the PCs but the NDP are nevertheless well in front.

Federally, it is closer but the NDP still holds the lead. They have 36% support among natives in Manitoba, followed by the Liberals at 33% and the Conservatives at 24%. Here again, the Tories find stronger support among Métis.

However, this group does not vote in high numbers. If it would be possible for the NDP to "get the vote out" in native communities in Manitoba, they could see a big swing in their favour, considering that the group makes up 15% of the province's population.

Pollster Firm Leanings - Quebec Update

I've updated the pollster leanings chart for Canada and Quebec, incorporating the polling from the month of February 2010.

In Quebec, the top pollster for the Bloc Québécois is Harris-Decima, who polls them 2.8 points higher than the average of other pollsters. The worst is CROP, which polls them 3.7 points below average.

The top pollster for the Liberals is Environics, polling them 5.9 points higher than average. The worst is EKOS, which polls them 3.5 points lower than the average.

The top pollsters for the Conservatives are Ipsos-Reid and Nanos, polling them at 1.4 points higher than average. The worst is Environics, 4.0 points lower than the average.

The top pollster for the New Democrats is CROP, 3.4 points higher than average. The worst is Harris-Decima, 2.0 points lower than average.

And for the Greens, the top pollster is Strategic Counsel, 6.2 points higher than average. The worst is Nanos, 3.0 points lower than average.

The most consistent pollsters seem to be Ipsos-Reid, with no more than a 1.6 point difference than the average, and Angus-Reid, with no more than a 2.2 point difference.

Just for fun, let's take Angus-Reid's poll from Monday and apply these numbers to it:

Bloc Québécois - 38% = 35.8%
Liberals - 24% = 25.7%
New Democrats - 16% = 17.3%
Conservatives - 16% = 16.5%
Greens - 6% = 7.6%

This gives an indication of how well the NDP did in this Angus-Reid poll.

The chart below tracks how each pollster tends to lean when calculating support levels for the various parties, as compared to the average polling results from other pollsters each month. This does not necessarily equate to a deliberate bias, but instead is more reflective of the polling methods used. This is also not a scientific calculation of any kind, but it does give an indication of how each pollster tends to compare to others.

The following chart shows each pollster's average variation from other polling firms. The numbers are the amount of percentage points a particular pollster favours or disfavours that particular party compared to other pollsters over a similar period of time.

Polling Firm Leanings Update

I've updated the pollster leanings chart for all of the national pollsters, except Strategic Counsel, incorporating the polling from the month of February 2010

Quebec has not been updated yet, but will be.

The top pollster for the Conservatives is Ipsos-Reid, which tends to poll them 3.5 points higher than other pollsters. The worst for the Conservatives is Harris-Decima, 2.4 points below average.

The top pollster for the Liberals is Environics, which tends to poll them 3.2 points higher. The worst for the Liberals is Angus-Reid, which polls them 2.1 points lower than the others.

For the NDP, the best pollster is Angus-Reid, 1.7 points higher than average. The worst are Ipsos-Reid and Environics, 2.2 points lower than average.

And for the Greens, the best pollster is the Strategic Counsel, 2.3 points higher than average. The worst is Angus-Reid, 2.2 points lower than average.

Léger Marketing and EKOS seem to be the pollsters with the fewest outliers. Léger Marketing doesn't have a variation of more than one point, while EKOS doesn't have one of more than 1.5 points.

Just for fun, let's take Angus-Reid's poll yesterday and apply these numbers to it:

Conservatives - 35% = 33.8%
Liberals - 29% = 31.1%
New Democrats - 20% = 18.3%
Greens - 7% = 9.2%
Bloc Québécois - 9% = 9%

The chart below tracks how each pollster tends to lean when calculating support levels for the various parties, as compared to the average polling results from other pollsters each month. This does not necessarily equate to a deliberate bias, but instead is more reflective of the polling methods used. This is also not a scientific calculation of any kind, but it does give an indication of how each pollster tends to compare to others.

The following chart shows each pollster's average variation from other polling firms. The numbers are the amount of percentage points a particular pollster favours or disfavours that particular party compared to other pollsters over a similar period of time.

New AR Poll: 6-pt Conservative Lead

Angus-Reid has released a new federal poll, and though it shows some variation from other polls we've seen, there actually has been very little movement.The Conservatives have opened up a six-point lead with 35%, up two points from Angus-Reid's poll taken at the end of February. The Liberals are unchanged at 29%, as are the New Democrats at 20% and the Bloc Québécois at 9%. The Greens are the ones who seemingly handed over points to the Tories, as they are down two to 7%.

(Don't miss my post on Manitoba polling which was put up earlier this morning.)

This is a great result for the NDP, but nothing new when it comes to Angus-Reid. It is also a good gap for the Tories, but a gain of two points over a month in a poll with a MOE of 3.1 is perhaps not enough to celebrate.

In Ontario, both the Liberals and Conservatives have gained two points, with the Tories maintaining a lead of 36% to 35%. The NDP is steady at an excellent 22%.

In Quebec, the Bloc has gained four points and stands at 38%, while the Liberals are down one to 24% and the Conservatives are down three to 16%. These are not the kind of numbers the two major federalist parties want to see in Quebec, but it is good news for the Bloc. The NDP is steady at 16%.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives have made a large seven point gain, and stand at 40%. The NDP is at 28% while the Liberals have dropped nine points to 24%.

There hasn't been much movement in Atlantic Canada, as the race is a three-way one. The Liberals lead with 34%, followed by the Conservatives at 33% and the NDP at 28%.

The Conservatives have gained seven points in Alberta, and are at 62%. The Liberals are still strong with 21%, though that is down six points. In the Prairies, the Tories are down six to 46% while the Liberals and NDP are up five each at 22% and 20%, respectively.

The Conservatives would win 128 seats, 68 of them in the West, 45 in Ontario, 6 in Quebec, and 9 in Atlantic Canada.

The Liberals would win 15 seats in the West, 43 in Ontario, 15 in Quebec, and 18 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 91.

The Bloc wins 52 seats in Quebec.

The NDP wins 12 seats in the West, 18 in Ontario, 2 in Quebec, and 5 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 37.

Angus-Reid is usually a little bit out of step with some of the other pollsters, the main reason seeming to be the under-performance of the Greens in their polling. Whatever their methods are, it seems to benefit the NDP and the Conservatives over what other pollsters show. Interestingly, however, virtually all pollsters have shown similar results for the Liberals. Perhaps the centrist voter is the easiest one to poll.

Selinger Still Ahead in Manitoba

A new poll by Probe Research shows that Premier Greg Selinger and the NDP are still in front in Manitoba.When we last saw a poll from Manitoba, it was from Angus-Reid and was taken throughout February, and the Progressive Conservatives had the lead. Either these two pollsters have found very different results, or the NDP has moved back in front.

As compared to Probe's last poll in December, the New Democrats are down five points to 42%. Hugh McFadyen's PCs are up two points to 39%, while the Liberals are steady at 11%.

Interestingly, Probe split up the results before and after the provincial budget dropped last week. Prior to the budget, the NDP led the PCs 44% to 37%. After the budget, the two parties were tied at 41%. Considering the sample size (roughly 500 each), it could be statistical noise. Or, it could be a worrying trend for the NDP.

The big factor in determining voter support in Manitoba seems to be gender. While the Progressive Conservatives lead among men, 45% to 36% (the NDP has dropped 9 points among men since December), the NDP leads among women, 49% to 33%.

Aside from among men, the NDP leads all demographics. However, the gap is close among 35-54 year olds, high school graduates, and those that make more than $30,000 per year.

In Winnipeg, where elections are often decided as the city represents about half of the seats in the legislature, the NDP has a solid lead, 49% to 32%. The Liberals followed with 13%.

Outside of Winnipeg, the PCs have a solid lead, 51% to 32%. Unlike in Winnipeg, where the changes since December have been small, the NDP has dropped seven points outside of the provincial capital.

When we compare these results to the 2007 provincial election, we see that voting behaviour has not changed much. The NDP had 48% in that election, while the Progressive Conservatives had 38% and the Liberals 13%. Aside from the six-point drop for the NDP, these are all within the MOE. In Winnipeg, things also haven't changed much, and are certainly within the MOE. So, Greg Selinger would still likely form government if an election were held today (though we shouldn't expect one before 2011), but the 36-to-19 majority Gary Doer handed to him would probably be significantly reduced.

Seat Changes in Ontario

I was playing around with the UBC Election Forecaster, tweaking it so that the popular vote results in each region would mirror those in my projection. They use a simple vote transferring model. Some of the results that came out of the forecaster were different from my own (though not significantly), but the result in Ontario matched mine exactly: 48 LPC, 45 CPC, 13 NDP.

So, this gives us an idea of what seats we are actually talking about in Ontario. It is a swap of 10 seats to the Liberals, six of them coming from the Conservatives and four of them from the NDP.

Here are the Conservative seats that switch over to the Liberals:

Kitchener-Centre
Kitchener-Waterloo
London West
Mississauga-Erindale
Oak Ridges-Markham
Ottawa-Orleans

None of these seats, however, are held by important members of the Conservative caucus.

These are the New Democratic seats that would switch over to the Liberals:

Sudbury
Thunder Bay-Rainy River
Welland
Trinity-Spadina

While the first three seats are held by lesser members of the NDP caucus, the last of the four is held by Olivia Chow.

Anyway, an interesting look deeper into the projection. The forecaster also identified Beauport-Limoilou and Roberval-Lac-St-Jean as two of the Conservative seats that would pass over to the Bloc Québécois.

Projection: 128 CPC, 100 LPC, 51 BQ, 29 NDP

I finally have some time to work on a new projection, and the result is completely underwhelming. At the national level, we have no seat changes, a 0.1 point drop for the Conservatives, and a 0.1 point gain for the Greens.There is some more interesting movement at the regional level, however.

Let's start with British Columbia. The big winners here are the Greens, who gain 0.7 points and are now at 12%. The Conservatives only drop 0.1 points to 35.7%, but the Liberals and New Democrats each drop 0.4, down to 24.9% and 25.4%, respectively. The Greens are still very far from putting Ms. May in an position to win, but the Conservatives are doing well to have stopped their decline.

In Alberta, the Conservatives have dropped big: 0.6 points to 58.4%. The Liberals have gained 0.3 points and are now at 17.9%. They continue to do well in the province. It is a real trend. The Greens have gained 0.2 and reach double-digits, while the NDP is up 0.1 points to 10.8%.

In the Prairies, the Greens again have the biggest movement with a gain of 0.7 points to reach 7.3%. The Conservatives are down 0.6 points, but still lead with 46.9%. The NDP has dropped 0.4 points to 23.1% and the Liberals are up 0.2 to 21.3%. The Conservatives are showing some fragility here, but it seems neither the Liberals nor the NDP have taken advantage.

In Ontario, the Conservatives have dropped 0.2 points to 35.8%. The NDP has gained 0.1 points to reach 16%, while the Greens are down 0.1 to 10.3%. The Liberals are steady at 36.4%. That is a tiny lead for them, but they need to keep it.

In Quebec, the Greens make the biggest jump with a gain of 0.3 points to 7.5%. The Liberals are down 0.2 points to 24.8% while the Conservatives are down 0.1 points to 17.4%. Both the NDP and Bloc Québécois are steady with 11.3% and 37.9%, respectively. The Bloc continues to remain strong, while the two main federalist alternatives are unable to make gains.

In Atlantic Canada, the NDP has dropped 0.3 points to 23.9%. The Greens are up 0.2 points to 6.4%, while the Conservatives are down 0.1 points to 31.1%. The Liberals are steady at 36.9%, an important lead for them.

Finally, in the North there is no movement.

This is a relatively ho-hum update for all of the parties, but the winner of the last 17 days has to be the Greens. For some reason, they have made gains in five of the six regions, and two of them (in BC and the Prairies) were significant.

The big loser has to be the Conservative Party. They dropped in every part of the country. The silver lining, however, is that the big drops came in regions they already dominate (Alberta and the Prairies). Everywhere else the decline was tiny.

New EKOS Poll: 5.6-pt Conservative Lead

EKOS has its weekly poll out, and we're starting to see some movement.The Conservatives have remained steady, gaining 0.2 points over EKOS's poll last week. They now stand at 33.3%. The Liberals, however, have dropped 1.2 points to 27.7%. The Greens are also down, 0.4 points, to 10.4%.

Gains this week go to the New Democrats (0.2 points to 15.9%), the Bloc Québécois (0.6 points nationally to 9.8%), and the fringe parties (0.5 points to 2.8%).

The Conservatives have moved in front in Ontario with 36.6%. The Liberals follow with 35%. The NDP is in third at 16.6%, which actually isn't bad for them in an EKOS poll. The Liberals maintain their lead in Toronto with 41.2% to the Conservatives' 35.8%, but the Tories are in front in Ottawa with 41.4%. The NDP gains eight points in the capital and stands at 18.6%.

In Quebec, the Bloc is up a little to 39.2%, but the Liberals are down around three points to 20.9%. The Conservatives are at 16%, still not good enough, while the NDP has dropped three to 9.3%. The Bloc maintains its lead in Montreal with 36%, followed by the Liberals at 27.9%. The NDP has dropped about five points here to 8.3%, perhaps endangering Thomas Mulcair's seat.

Things are relatively stable in British Columbia, the Tories still leading with 33.4% and 35.2% in Vancouver (up about five points). The NDP (25.6%) and the Liberals (25.3%) are still fighting for second, but are within striking distance of the Conservatives. The NDP is not doing well in Vancouver, however, as they are down about seven points to 21.4%. The Greens, at 12.1%, have dropped about four points since last week in the province.

There was a lot of movement in Atlantic Canada and the Prairies, likely due to the smaller sample size. In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals are up three points to 39.2%, while the Conservatives drop six to 29.5%. The NDP drops five to 22.1%. In the Prairies, the Tories gain seven and lead with 49.5%. The NDP also gains seven (23%) but the Liberals drop 14 to 15.3%.

In Alberta, things look odd because of a 7.3% result for "Other". The Liberals, though, gain three points and are at a very strong 20.3%.

The Conservatives win 129 seats, 67 of them in the West, 48 in Ontario, 6 in Quebec, and 8 in Atlantic Canada.

The Liberals win 15 seats in the West, 45 in Ontario, 14 in Quebec, and 20 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 94.

Thanks to weak Liberal, NDP, and Conservative results, the Bloc manages to win 55 seats in Quebec.

The NDP wins 13 seats in the West, 13 in Ontario, and 4 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 30.

This poll shows something we haven't seen much of lately: the combined Liberal-NDP seat totals being below that of the Conservatives. This isn't a necessarily good poll for the Tories as they are relatively stable, but it is a bad poll for the Liberals. They are beginning to fall away, their lead in Ontario seemingly most vulnerable.

Progressive Conservatives Ahead in Manitoba

Angus-Reid released a new Manitoba provincial poll on March 18. It shows a close race, but the Progressive Conservative opposition is now in the lead.The Progressive Conservatives are up to 44% in the province, while the New Democrats are at 37%. The Liberals stand at 13%, while the Greens are at 3%.

The last Manitoba poll I have was done in December by Probe Research. That poll had the NDP up 47% to the PC's 37%. So, if we can compare these two, this is a big change.

But the NDP is still in front in Winnipeg, with 44% to the PC's 36%. The Liberals are at 13% here.

In rural Manitoba, the Progressive Conservatives dominate with 55%. The NDP is at 28% and the Liberals are at 13% here.

As compared to the province's 2007 election, the NDP is down 11 points. But, Gary Doer (who led the NDP to victory in that election) is no longer Premier. The PCs have gained six points since that election, while the Liberals have only gained one.

There are large differences between the federal and provincial political scenes in Manitoba. In the 2008 federal election, the Conservatives had 49%, the NDP 24%, and the Liberals 19%.

This is the last of the provincial polls in my backlog. I hope to have a projection update soon, though tomorrow will undoubtedly see the release of the EKOS poll. Also, I'd appreciate if the comments in response to this post stick to Manitoba politics, rather than what is going on in the House of Commons.

Dexter Still Killing the Opposition

Corporate Research Associates polled Nova Scotians for their provincial voting intentions in February, and we're seeing some movement.Darrell Dexter's New Democrats are still well ahead of the Liberals with 46% to their 26%. However, that is a drop of seven points for the NDP since November and a gain of four points for the Liberals. Nevertheless, the gap is 20 points, and since February of last year the NDP is still showing a gain of 10 points.

The leaderless Progressive Conservatives are at 22%, up one point since November but still down eight since this time last year. The Greens are at 5%, also up one point.

49% of Nova Scotians are satisfied with Dexter's government, down 14 points since November.

He is still the favourite for Premier, however, with 35% (down nine). Stephen McNeil of the Liberals is the best man for the job for 26% (up five) while the "next PC leader" is at 11%. Good for him/her!

In federal polls recently we've been seeing the NDP struggling in Atlantic Canada. Could part of that dip be caused by the small drop in Dexter's popularity?

BC NDP Continue to Lead, Though Gap Closes

On March 19, Angus-Reid released a new poll for provincial politics in British Columbia.The BC New Democrats under Carole James have maintained their lead with 43%, though this is a drop of four points since AR's last poll in November 2009. Gordon Campbell's BC Liberals have gained two points but are still behind with 35%.

The NDP lead in all demographics, be it gender, age, income, and education - except one. Among people with an income of $100,000 or more, the Liberals have a solid lead.

The BC Greens are up three points to 13%, while the BC Conservatives are down one point to 6%.

As compared to the election in 2009, the NDP is up one, the Liberals are down 11, the Greens are up five, and the Conservatives are up four.

In and around Vancouver, the NDP has a solid lead over the Liberals, 49% to 35%. On Vancouver Island the lead is larger, 44% to 29%. The BC Greens have life on the island with 20%.

In the BC Interior, the race is much closer with the NDP and Liberals tied at 36%. But in the North, the BC Liberals are well ahead with 43% to the NDP's 28%. This is the strongest region for the BC Conservatives, who are at 18%.

Considering the last election was only a year ago, Premier Gordon Campbell has a lot of time to repair his party's standing. He also has a lot of time to muck things up worse.

Unfortunately for federal politics, the provincial scene in British Columbia is too different to draw any comparisons. However, while both Harper (since they share a lot of voters) and Ignatieff (since they share a name) can talk nice with Campbell if they deem it politically useful, only the NDP can truly "claim" Carole James and the BC NDP. That would seem to work to their advantage, but the good graces of the BC NDP doesn't seem to be rubbing off on the federal NDP, as they are struggling in third behind the federal Conservatives and the Liberals in the latest polls.

Central Asian dictators don't even fake numbers like this

Corporate Research Associates, you gotta love 'em, took the time to ask Newfoundlanders what everyone already knew.The Progressive Conservatives lead in Newfoundland & Labrador by 65-points. Yep. They have 80%, and even that is a three point gain since November 2009. It is a nine-point gain since February 2009.

The Liberals are at 15%, down one from November but seven from February of last year. The NDP is hardly a party with 5%, down two from November.

What is more incredible is the level of satisfaction: 93%. What is even more incredible is the level of dissatisfaction: 3%!

Obviously, Danny Williams is the favourite for premier with 81% support. What is astonishing is that most other party leaders have trouble even coming close to their party's level of support. Williams does them one better and beats his own party. Heart surgery, schmart schmurgery.

Yvonne James of the Liberals is at 8% and Lorraine Michael of the NDP is at 5%. Leading these parties must be depressing.

Anyway, I first made the bold prediction of a Williams majority in the next election back at the end of 2009. People called me crazy. Now that we're a few months closer to it, and Williams has confirmed he will run again, I have to say my impression hasn't changed.

PQ opens up six point lead

Léger Marketing released a new provincial poll a week ago. It shows a statistically significant gap between the Parti Québécois and the provincial Liberals, something we haven't seen in awhile.However, not all is roses for the PQ. They are down two points to 38%, but a five point drop by the PLQ to 32% puts the PQ firmly in the lead.

Québec Solidaire has gained four points and is at 10%, while the Action Démocratique du Québec has gained one point to 10%. The Parti Vert gained one and is at 7%.

Among francophones, who decide the vast majority of seats in Quebec, the PQ is still well in the lead with 45%, though down three points from Léger's February poll. The Liberals have dropped four points to 25% among this demographic. QS is up three to 10%, the ADQ up two to 11%.

Among non-francophones, the PLQ continues to lead with 67%. QS follows with 9%, then the PVQ with 8% and the PQ with 7%.

In and around Montreal, the PLQ leads with 38%, followed closely by the PQ at 35%. QS is at 11%.

In and around Quebec City, the PLQ also leads with 35%, followed by the PQ at 28%. The ADQ has virtually all of its support here, as they have 24% in the region.

In the rest of Quebec, the PQ dominates with 45% to the PLQ's 25%.

Only 24% of Quebecers are satisfied with the government, down nine points since February. The issues in Quebec concerning corruption in the construction industry, questions about political financing, and perhaps even the resurgence of the accommodemants raisonnables issue all seem to be hurting the Liberals.

Pauline Marois of the PQ is now the favourite for premier, with 24% (unchanged since February). Jean Charest of the PLQ has fallen eight points to 20%. Amir Khadir of QS is at 9% and Gérard Deltell, leader of the ADQ, has dropped one point to 6%. That seems to indicate that Deltell is not becoming better liked as Quebecers get to know him better.

Thanks to strong results around Montreal and Quebec City, the PLQ manage to win 50 seats. But, the PQ still forms government with 68 seats. The ADQ win five seats around Quebec City and QS elect two MNAs on the island of Montreal.

From a federal perspective, it is always good news for the Bloc Québécois when the PQ is doing well. They share the same voters. And with QS at 10%, a full 48% of Quebecers are supporting sovereigntist parties. For the Liberals and Conservatives in Ottawa, it makes things difficult as the PLQ and the ADQ are both showing unpopularity. Obviously, both Ignatieff and Harper will stay away from Deltell. But now even Charest appears to be problematic as a working partner.

Nevertheless, Charest seems to have as many lives as a cat, and he could turn things around before the 2012-2013 election - if he decides to run again. If not, the PQ could have a relatively easy time as there is no heir apparent among provincial Liberals.

New Ipsos-Reid Poll: 6-pt Conservative Lead

Ipsos-Reid has a new poll out, but it doesn't have any breaking-news results.The Conservatives have a solid lead over the Liberals at 34%, but their lead has actually shrunk from eight points to six points since Ipsos-Reid's last poll taken at the end of February. They've dropped three points.

The Liberals have also dropped, but only one point. They are down to 28%. The New Democrats are up two to 18% (a very good result) while the Greens are up three to 10%.

In Ontario, the Liberals have lost four points but still lead with 36%, thanks to the Tories also losing four points to drop to 33%. The NDP is the net beneficiary, with a gain of four points to 19%.

In Quebec, the Bloc Québécois drops four points to 35%, but is still well ahead of the Liberals who have gained two points (27%). The Conservatives are up three to 20% and the NDP is steady at 11%.

The Tories continue to lead in British Columbia with 43%, a much better result than other pollsters have shown. The NDP follows with 22% and the Liberals are well behind with 17%. The Greens are at 16%.

In Atlantic Canada, the small sample size has led to an 18-point Tory drop and a 14-point NDP gain. Overall, the Liberals lead with 33%.

In Alberta, the same goes as the Tories pick up 15 points and are at 66%. The NDP drops seven.

In the Prairies, the Tories and NDP swap 13 points to the NDP's advantage, though the Conservatives still lead with 46%.

Thanks to extraordinary results west of Ontario, the Conservatives take 129 seats overall. They win 77 seats in the West, 37 in Ontario, 9 in Quebec, and 6 in Atlantic Canada.

The Liberals win 8 seats in the West, 51 in Ontario, 17 in Quebec, and 19 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 95.

The Bloc wins 47 seats in Quebec.

The NDP wins 10 seats in the West, 18 in Ontario, 2 in Quebec, and 7 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 37.

Ipsos-Reid showed a much larger gap in their February poll, unlike what most of the other pollsters were showing. Now that they show a smaller gap, larger than some of the other pollsters, we can't help but take this poll as a step backwards for the Conservatives. The only party that can be happy with these results is the NDP.

Ghiz's Liberals Comfortably Ahead in PEI

Corporate Research Associates polls where no one else will: Prince Edward Island. That might not be true.The PEI Liberals are well ahead of their main rivals, the Progressive Conservatives. They have gained seven points since November, and are at 64%. However, that is no statistical anomaly. They were at 64% one year ago.

The Progressive Conservatives are down five points to 26%, down two overall since February 2009.

The Island New Democrats have gained three points and stand at 6%, where they were a year ago.

And the Greens are at 4%, up one from November and up two from last February.

Prince Edward Islanders seem to be very happy with their Liberal government, as 67% say they are satisfied (up seven). Only 27% say they are dissatisfied.

Current Liberal Premier Robert Ghiz is the favourite to continue as Premier, with 48% choosing him as the best person for the job. The Progressive Conservatives, however, are leaderless at the moment and 17% chose the "next leader" of the PCs. Finally, James Rodd of the NDP received 7% support.

Politics in such a small province can't help but be local. However, there are some things we can extrapolate from this poll for the larger federal scene.

In 2008, the Liberals had 48% in the province. Certainly below the present standings of the Liberals, but not much different than the PEI Liberals' performance in the 2007 provincial election, when they had 53%. Going back to the 2006 federal election, we also get the federal Liberals at 53% on the island. So, Ghiz's Liberals doing so well bodes well for Ignatieff's Liberals. There's a good chance the federal Liberals will be able to re-take all four seats on the island.

The same can be said for the Progressive Conservatives and the federal Conservatives over the last few years. While the PCs are polling well below the 36% the CPC had in 2008, the PCs did have 41% in 2007. So, the weakness of the Progressive Conservatives in PEI could work against Stephen Harper.

However, from 1996 to 2003, the Progressive Conservatives formed government on the island. In the meantime, the federal Progressive Conservatives and Canadian Alliance/Reform parties did not fair so well, while the federal Liberals out-performed their provincial counterparts. So, we can only take this sort of comparison so far.

But, one interesting thing to look at is the performance of the PEI NDP. They are very weak, at only 6% in this poll and in 2007 they earned less than 2% of the vote. The federal NDP does better, with about 10% of the vote in 2008 and 2006. But even that was one of their worst performances in the country. Whether the provincial NDP is dragging down the federal NDP, or vice versa, or that Prince Edward Islanders simply don't go for the social democratic thing, is hard to say.

The next election in PEI will take place sometime before October 2011.

Progressive Conservatives Maintain Lead in New Brunswick

On March 9, Corporate Research Associates released their results of a poll on the provincial voting intentions of New Brunswickers.The Progressive Conservatives have maintained their lead with 42%, but that is a drop of four points compared to CRA's November 2009 poll. However, with an MOE of 3.5, this might not be significant.

The Liberals have remained steady at 36%, the Hydro-Québec deal keeping them from a position of re-election.

The NDP has gained four points and is at 18%, a decent result for the party in New Brunswick.

The Greens remain steady at 4%.

Compared to CRA's February 2009 poll, we see that the Progressive Conservatives (+8 points) and the NDP (+5) have been the big winners over the last year. The Liberals have dropped a massive 14 points in that time span.

Only 34% of New Brunswickers are satisfied with the direction of the government, down 8 points from November.

Though his party is doing well, David Alward is the choice as best premier for only 27% of those polled, down two points. Shawn Graham, the current Liberal premier, is not far behind with 25%, down four. Roger Duguay, leader of the NDP, is up three points to 11%.

The results of the 2008 federal election are, interestingly, within the ballpark of current support levels. The Conservatives took 39% of the vote in New Brunswick in that election, only three points lower than the current PC support level. The Liberals took 32%, only four points lower. The federal NDP, however, does better with 22% compared to this poll's 18%. And the Greens, who took 6% federally in 2008, are about at the same level as the provincial Greens.

Taking into account the 3.5 MOE, provincial results seem to closely mirror federal results.

In other words, provincial politics in New Brunswick could be an indicator for the next federal election.

(Note, CRA has done polls for all Atlantic provinces. I will tackle each one at a time over the next few days. Also note that I've added a list of provincial links to the right. These links group all the posts about each province's politics, so that if you want to see all of my posts about New Brunswick politics, you can click on the New Brunswick link and all of them will be shown together.)

EKOS Poll: 4.2-pt Conservative Lead

EKOS is on schedule with its weekly poll. A little movement, but nothing significant.Since last week's poll, the Conservatives have gained 1.2 points and are at 33.1%. The Liberals have lost 0.7 points and stand at 28.9%. While these are both within the 2.0 MOE, the 4.2 gap is not.

The NDP loses 0.3 points and is at 15.7%. The Greens lose 0.2 points and are at 10.8%, while the Bloc gains 0.1 point to reach 9.2%. The other parties are at 2.3%, down 0.1.

In Ontario, the two major parties have joined in a tie at 35.6%. The NDP is behind at 16.3%.

In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois is comfortably ahead with 36.8%, followed by the Liberals at 24.2% and the Conservatives at 16.3%. All of these results are slightly lower than where the parties want to be.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives continue to struggle with 32%. The NDP is at 24.8% and the Liberals are at 23.6%. The Greens are at 16.3% here.

The only movement outside of the MOE in any of the regional results comes in Alberta, where the Tories have gained eight points and stand at 58.2%. A Conservative lead in Atlantic Canada (only 0.4 points with a 7.8 MOE) is an oddity.

In the cities, the only movement outside of the MOE is in Toronto, where the Conservatives have gained nine points and are almost tied with the Liberals.

The Conservatives win 63 seats in the West, 45 in Ontario, 6 in Quebec, and 11 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 125.

The Liberals win 21 seats in the West (thanks in large part to a big number in the Prairies), 47 in Ontario, 16 in Quebec, and 18 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 102.

The Bloc wins 51 seats in Quebec.

The NDP wins 11 in the West, 14 in Ontario, 2 in Quebec, and 3 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 51.

This poll also has the "second choice" question, which I always love.

For Conservative voters, 45.9% have no second choice, 25.2% choose the Liberals, and 14.8% choose the NDP. This indicates that Conservatives voters don't see either the Liberals or the NDP as sharing a lot of common policies, but that the Liberals are seen as closer to the centre.

Among Liberal voters, 32.7% choose the NDP as their second choice, 26.5% have no second choice, and 18.6% choose the Conservatives. This indicates that the Liberals have a much stronger left-wing than they do right-wing.

For NDP voters, 30.9% choose the Liberals, 28.1% choose none, and 21.4% choose the Greens. Going over to the Tories is too much of a stretch for NDP voters.

For Bloc voters, 31.6% choose their fellow social democratic party in the NDP, 28.6% choose none, and 16.1% choose the Liberals.

Finally, among Green voters, 30% choose none, 24.2% choose the Liberals, and 23.6% choose the NDP. Talk that the Greens are more right-wing than most people think seems unfounded.

Wildrose Alliance Maintain Lead

On March 11, Angus-Reid released a new poll of Alberta provincial politics. It confirmed what they had discovered back in November.The Wildrose Alliance has maintained its lead, and even enlarged it. They are up three points from that November poll and stand at 42%. The Progressive Conservatives are showing the smallest bit of life with a gain of two points to 27%.

The provincial Liberals have lost a bit of their shine, dropping six points to 19%. The NDP has remained steady at 9%.

The Wildrose Alliance leads in all demographics: gender, age, and income levels. The Progressive Conservatives are strongest, but still behind, among older and middle class voters.

The WRA leads in Calgary, 48% to 25%. The Liberals are behind at 18%.

In Edmonton, the WRA leads with 35%. The Liberals follow with 27% and the Progressive Conservatives are third with 25%.

In the rest of the province, the WRA leads the PCs 43% to 29%. The Liberals are out of it at 13%.

Coupled with the recent poll by Angus-Reid on Premier approval ratings, this is bad news for Premier Ed Stelmach. He is unpopular and his party is on the rails. The only question is whether the Wildrose Alliance can continue this momentum through to the election campaign, and convince Albertans that they can actually govern the province.

But, as the ADQ has shown us in Quebec, leading in the polls between elections does not mean future government for new parties. The ADQ grew too big too fast, and collapsed upon itself following the 2007 and 2008 provincial elections. The Wildrose Alliance is in danger of the same thing.

New Nanos Poll: 0.1-pt Conservative "Lead"

Nanos Research has a new poll out, and while it shows the close race that everyone else is showing, it also has some major differences.Nationally, the Conservatives have the slimmest of leads with 34.7% to the Liberals' 34.6%. More importantly, though, is that this marks a loss of 0.9 points for the Tories and a gain of 0.7 points for the Liberals when compared to Nanos's poll in February.

The NDP is up 1.4 points to 17.8%, while the Bloc Quebecois is down to 7.7% and the Greens are down 0.4 points to 5.2%.

The margin of error, however, is 3.5 points so no one has moved outside of the statistical noise.

Also note that Nanos does not prompt, which is why the Greens tend to do worse in their polling.

Nanos shows huge numbers for both the Tories and Liberals in Ontario. The Liberals lead with 41.7%, followed by the Conservatives at 39.2%. Both parties would be very, very happy with this level of support. What kind of result would come from such strong numbers from both parties, though, is more troublesome. The NDP is weak at 14.6%.

In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois is down to 31.5%, though that is down about two points and so within the MOE. Nanos has had the Bloc at a much lower level than they have been in other polls, and as this seems to be a Nanos consistency in 2010, we can probably assume that the Bloc is doing better than this. The Liberals are up to 31%, and the Conservatives are also doing well with 21.8%.

In British Columbia, the Tories lead with 36.8%, followed by the Liberals at 28.2% and the NDP at 23.1%. Nothing unusual there.

In Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives are down 10.7 points, just outside of the MOE of 10.6. The Liberals lead with 42%, followed by the NDP at 29.5% and the Conservatives at 25%.

Nanos groups Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba together so I can't use those numbers. But all of the variation since their last poll is within the MOE.


Using my current projections for Alberta and the Prairies, the Conservatives win 69 seats in the West, 45 in Ontario, 10 in Quebec, and 5 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 129.

The Liberals are not far behind with 18 seats in the West, 52 in Ontario, 21 in Quebec, and 22 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 113.

The Bloc takes a big hit and drops to 42 seats.

The NDP wins 8 seats in the West, 9 in Ontario, 2 in Quebec, and 5 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 24.

A somewhat unusual poll when we look at the regional results. One wonders if this is because Nanos doesn't prompt, while most of the other pollsters do. That doesn't make these more accurate, but it does mark a significant methodological difference.

New Léger Poll: 37% BQ, 25% LPC

Léger Marketing has a new poll out on the voting intentions of Quebecers.Compared to Léger's last poll a month ago, this is not very different. The Bloc Quebecois has dropped one to 37%, the Liberals have dropped two to 25%, the Conservatives are up one to 17%, and the NDP is up two to 14%. But the margin of error is 3.1, so really statistically insignificant movement.

Among francophones, the Bloc dominates with 45%, followed by the Liberals at 21%. The NDP and Conservatives are tied at 14%.

Among non-francophones, the Liberals dominate with 41%. The Conservatives follow with 28% and the NDP is third with 15%. Remembering that this is a smaller sample size, this is a loss of 12 points for the Liberals and a gain of 10 for the Conservatives among this demographic. Could the Tories be ready to break into English Quebec, or is it just a statistical mirage?

Imagine how different the Quebec political landscape would be if the Conservatives and Liberals were vying for the anglophone vote.

In Montreal, the Bloc is at 36%, followed closely by the Liberals at 29%. The NDP is well behind at 14%.

Around Quebec City, the Bloc has gained five points to take the lead at 34% - a very good result for them. The Conservatives are down to 28% and the Liberals are up to 23%.

Finally, in the "Rest of Quebec", the Bloc has 39% to the Liberals' 20% and the Conservatives' 18%. This puts the Bloc in a good position to sweep the non-Montreal and non-Quebec City seats.

The Bloc wins 50 seats and the Liberals win 16. The Conservatives are reduced to seven seats, and the NDP wins two.

Nothing much new in this poll, though it does confirm the stagnation of the Liberals and Conservatives at levels which mean little growth.

February Averages

Time to look at February's polling. Twelve national polls were taken during this month (seven more than last month), totalling about 26,060 interviews. Here are the results we get at the national level, with the difference from last month's average in brackets.

Conservatives - 32.8% (+0.4)
Liberals - 30.8% (+0.7)
New Democrats - 16.2% (-0.1)
Greens - 9.8% (-0.1)
Bloc Quebecois - 8.9% (-0.6)

The Conservatives manage a tiny rebound, but it pales in comparison to their 4.4-point loss in January. The Liberals also make a small gain, but this is a gain of almost three points compared to December's result. The NDP hardly moves at all, but they would much prefer to be at around 2008's 18%. The Bloc drops, but it is more important to look at the Quebec number. The Greens drop a little, but it is still a 1.6-point gain since December. It is quite astonishing to see such a close race between the Tories and the Liberals at such a low number.

The seat projection for these results is as follows, with the difference from last month in brackets:

Conservatives - 121 (-2)
Liberals - 109 (+6)
Bloc Quebecois - 49 (-2)
New Democrats - 29 (-2)
Greens - 0 (unchanged)

Only a loss of two seats for the Conservatives, though they were at 140 seats in December. The Liberals are up six seats, when they were only at 86 seats in December. The NDP is down two more (after being down one in January), while the Bloc is down two after gaining one.The regional results, with difference from last month in brackets:

BRITISH COLUMBIA (12 polls - about 3,010 people)

Conservatives - 34.3% (+0.8)
Liberals - 26.3% (+0.1)
New Democrats - 24.5% (-0.6)
Greens - 12.7% (-0.3)

The Conservatives manage to tread water and make a small gain, but they are still more than four points lower than their December level. The Liberals remain stable, which is good considering their level of support. The NDP drops a little, but this is a drop of almost two points in two months. The Greens seem to always be taking steps backwards and forwards in this province, losing ground this month.

ALBERTA (11 polls - about 2,270 people)

Conservatives - 54.4% (-0.6)
Liberals - 21.2% (+2.7)
New Democrats - 10.6% (-0.3)
Greens - 10.6% (-0.7)

The Conservatives continue to slip in the province. The Liberals, meanwhile, make a large gain - this trend in Alberta can't be ignored. The NDP broke the Conservative sweep in 2008, and the Liberals look like they will continue to block that sweep in 2010-11. The NDP slips a little, while the Greens slip a little more.

PRAIRIES (11 polls - about 1,650 people)

Conservatives - 47.0% (-0.4)
New Democrats - 21.7% (-1.9)
Liberals - 21.3% (+2.2)
Greens - 8.9% (+0.4)

The Conservatives drop a little, but this is more than five points of losses since December. The Liberals are up, a gain of more than three points in two months. What is going on in the west? The NDP has dropped about two points, erasing their January gains. The Greens are up a point in two months.

In all, the Conservatives take 66 seats in the West. The Liberals win 18 and the NDP win 11.

ONTARIO (12 polls - about 8,740 people)

Liberals - 38.1% (+0.9)
Conservatives - 34.9% (-0.2)
New Democrats - 15.3% (-0.2)
Greens - 10.6% (unchanged)

The Liberals are up almost a point, marking gains of almost four points over the last two months. After losing four points in January, this is a small drop for the Tories, but worrisome for them nevertheless. The same goes for the NDP, who lost one point in January and now another small loss in February. The Greens remain stable.

The Liberals win 53 seats, the Tories win 41, and the NDP takes 12.

QUEBEC (12 polls - about 5,820 people)

Bloc Quebecois - 36.4% (-1.4)
Liberals - 26.5% (+0.9)
Conservatives - 16.4% (+0.5)
New Democrats - 11.0% (-0.9)
Greens - 8.3% (+1.3)

The Bloc takes a relatively large step backwards, but the trend seems to have been that every loss is made-up by a gain the next month. We'll see if that trend holds in March. The Liberals make a decent little gain, up a full point since December. The Conservatives make a small gain, but are still down more than two points since December. The NDP is down, erasing their gains from January, while the Greens are up almost two points since December.

The Bloc wins 49 seats while the Liberals win 18. The Conservatives are reduced to six and the NDP win two.

ATLANTIC CANADA (12 polls - about 1,860 people)

Liberals - 37.5% (+1.7)
Conservatives - 30.9% (+0.9)
New Democrats - 23.1% (-3.2)
Greens - 7.5% (+1.0)

The Liberals are up, marking almost six points of gains since December. The Conservatives make a decent gain, but that is still more than four points of losses in two months. The NDP is down big here, almost six points in all in two months. The Greens are up a little for another month.

The Liberals dominate with 20 seats, while the Conservatives (eight) and NDP (four) split the rest.The Conservatives are starting to re-gain their balance, with gains in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, and British Columbia. But they are modest gains when compared to the huge losses they've suffered, and they are still down in Ontario, the Prairies, and Alberta. While those two last regions are still safe, something has to be done in Ontario.

The Liberals continue to make gains, which they have done in every region of the country. They are re-establishing themselves in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada (their bread and butter), and are even making inroads in British Columbia and Alberta. In other words, they are heading in the right direction.

The NDP had a very rough month in February, losing ground in every part of the country. Their large losses in Atlantic Canada and the Prairies are troublesome. They seem to be suffering from the Liberal re-bound as much as the Conservatives have been.

The Bloc sees a drop equal to the gains made by the Liberals and the Conservatives, which is a source of worry for them. But, they still hold a good lead over the Liberals and will be able to take advantage of the Conservative drop.

With a loss in British Columbia and stability in Ontario, the Greens are not closer to electing their first MP.

New EKOS Poll: 2.3-pt Conservative Lead

Another EKOS poll shows the major parties are as limp as (insert your own off-colour joke).Compared to EKOS's poll last week, this marks a loss of 0.5 points for the Conservatives (31.9%), a 0.2 point gain for the Liberals (29.6%), a 0.8 point gain for the NDP (16.0%), and a 0.5 point gain for the Greens (11.0%). Nationally, the Bloc is down 0.3 points (9.1%). The other parties get 2.4%. The margin of error is 2.0.

These are weak numbers for both the Liberals and the Tories, and even the NDP. No party would go to an election with any certainty with these kinds of numbers. While all changes are within the MOE, this does indicate that the Conservatives are just as road-blocked as the Liberals. As the EKOS analysis says, the budget hasn't budged the numbers.

In Ontario, the Liberals have a weak lead with 35.2% to the Conservatives' 33.4%. The NDP is at 17.9%, up about four points (MOE 3.5). A good result for them.

In Quebec, the Bloc is still comfortably ahead with 36.5%. The Liberals are up five points to 27.4% (MOE 4.3). The Conservatives remain stagnant at 16.0%.

In British Columbia, the Tories make a big jump of about seven points to reach 36.4% (MOE 5.4). The Liberals lose those seven points, and are at 21.9%. They still hold a lead over the NDP at 21.2%.

No variations in the Prairies and Atlantic Canada are larger than the MOE, but in Alberta the Conservatives have dropped 10 points (MOE 6.3) to 50.2% while the NDP is up 8 to 13.0%. The Liberals continue to show strength with 21.9%.

No changes in the cities are larger than the MOE, which ranges between 6.5 and 9.0. But, the Conservatives have the lead in Vancouver and Ottawa, while the Liberals are well ahead in Toronto and making a race of it with the Bloc in Montreal.

The Conservatives would win 68 seats in the West, 39 in Ontario, 6 in Quebec, and 9 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 122.

The Liberals win 18 in the West, 50 in Ontario, 19 in Quebec, and 20 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 107.

The Bloc wins 50 seats in Quebec.

The NDP wins 9 in the West, 17 in Ontario, and 3 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 29.

This minority would be weaker than the one Stephen Harper won in 2006. So, who knows what kind of government would come out of it.

A boring poll that confirms a less boring reality: it's a close race, but no one is showing any real strength.

New HD Poll: 4-pt Conservative Lead

Harris-Decima has a new poll out, without any major surprises. But it does show some Conservative strength.Compared to Harris-Decima's last poll taken at the end of February, this is a two point gain for the Conservatives (33%) and a two point loss for the Liberals (29%). The NDP is steady at 16%, the Bloc gains two points (10%) and the Greens lose one point (11%). Note that the margin of error is 1.8%.

Also note that this poll straddles the last poll a little bit. That last poll was taken between February 18 and February 28, while this one was taken between February 25 and March 7. I've reduced the weight of this poll accordingly, as it is already partly represented by the older poll.

The Liberals lead with 39% in Ontario, a good number for them. The Conservatives are at 35%, so still in striking distance. The NDP is weak with 14%.

The Bloc shows a big eight-point bounce (MOE is 3.6) and stands at 44%, one of their better results in a long time. The Liberals poll at half that strength, with 22%. The Conservatives are also hurting at 15%.

The Tories are still showing some trouble in British Columbia with 35%, while the NDP is steady with 25%. The Liberals have dropped nine points (MOE 5.2) to 21%.

All variations in Alberta and the Prairies are within the MOE, but in Atlantic Canada (MOE 5.6) the Liberals have dropped eight points to 34% and the Conservatives have gained nine (30%).

The Conservatives win 68 seats out West, 41 in Ontario, 5 in Quebec, and 9 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 123.

The Liberals win 14 out West, 54 in Ontario, 14 in Quebec, and 18 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 100. Poor performances in BC and Quebec hurt them in this poll.

The Bloc wins 54 seats in Quebec, matching their all-time best.

The NDP wins 13 in the West, 11 in Ontario, 2 in Quebec, and 5 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 31.

Nothing really new in this poll, though it does show a potentially volatile British Columbia. Liberal strength (relatively speaking) continues in Alberta, and they are still showing great numbers in Ontario. But the Tories are not going away in that province.

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On another note, I recommend you read Manon Cornellier's piece in today's Le Devoir about the government's budget strategy. If you can't read French, Google Translator may help you. Cornellier is one of the more under-rated political pundits in the country. Her pieces are always very detailed and focus more on substance than most pundits do today. Le Devoir also seems to give her more space on the page than the Don Martins, Jim Traverses, and Chantal Héberts of the media world. She really deserves a look.

Projection Update: 128 CPC, 100 LPC, 51 BQ, 29 NDP

The latest projection update doesn't show much movement, but is important nevertheless.Why? With the Conservatives dropping one seat and the Liberals gaining one seat, the spread is now 28 seats. And the NDP has 29. This bumps the projection into an Unstable Conservative Minority, as only the second and fourth parties are required to out-vote the government.

The Conservatives have lost 0.3 points nationally and are down to 33.5%, while the Liberals have gained 0.1 points and are up to 29.4%. It seems that the gains and losses are slowing for these two parties. The NDP is steady at 16.2%, while the Bloc drops 0.1 point to 9.3% and the Greens gain 0.1 point to reach the psychologically significant level of 10%.

Let's look at the changes region by region.

In Ontario, the Conservatives have lost one seat and 0.1 points, down to 36%. The Liberals gain a seat and 0.2 points, and stand at 36.4%. The NDP also gains 0.1 points while the Greens lose 0.2.

In Quebec, the Bloc is down 0.1 points but still well ahead at 37.9%. The Liberals have lost 0.2 points in the province (their only loss anywhere in the country) and are down to 25.0%. The Conservatives are steady, while the NDP picks up 0.1 points and the Greens pick up 0.2 points.

British Columbia shows the most significant movement, with the Conservatives dropping half a point to 35.8%. The NDP gains 0.1 points and keeps a narrow lead over the Liberals with 25.8%. The Liberals gain 0.4 points and stand at 25.3%. The Greens are down 0.2 points in the province.

In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals have gained 0.2 points to reach 36.9%. The Conservatives are down 0.1 points and are at 31.2%. The NDP is down 0.3 points to 24.2%.

In Alberta, the Conservatives continue to slide with a loss of 0.2 points. With 59%, however, they still have a commanding lead. The Liberals continue to impress with a gain of 0.4 points and are now at 17.6%. The NDP is down 0.3 points and the Greens are up 0.1.

In the Prairies, the Conservatives are down 0.2 points to 47.5% - still well ahead of the NDP who have lost 0.2 points and are at 23.5%. The Liberals gain 0.1 and the Greens gain 0.3.

Finally, in the North, the Conservatives drop 0.1 points.

This was a bad two weeks for the government, as they have dropped in every region of the country except Quebec, where they remained stable. A 0.5-point loss in British Columbia is very bad news for the party.

The Liberals had a good two weeks, posting large 0.4-point gains in British Columbia and Alberta. They've also opened up a tiny lead in Ontario, but their loss of ground in Quebec is troublesome.

The NDP did not have a very good time, posting minute gains in BC, Ontario, and Quebec but 0.3-point losses in Atlantic Canada and Alberta. However, unlike the Liberals and the Conservatives, the NDP is never down or up throughout the country.

The Bloc only dropped 0.1 points, which seems to be the norm. They are stuck at around 38%.

Harris-Decima Poll: Tie!

Harris-Decima has posted the results of its poll, which is now a week old.This actually shows very little change since HD's last poll, taken between February 4 and February 14. The Conservatives drop one and the Liberals gain one to tie at 31%, while the NDP remains stable at 16%. The Bloc drops two points nationally while the Greens gain two points, rising to 12%. The MOE of 2.2, however, puts all of these within the statistical noise.

Speaking of which, for regional results I will only mention variations outside of the MOE in the future.

In Ontario, the Liberals remain in the lead at 38%, with the Conservatives close on their heels at 35%. The Tories should be happy they are still putting up a fight in Ontario, because the way their vote in the West is dropping they need those seats. The NDP is struggling at 14%.

In Quebec, the Bloc drops five points to 36%, still well ahead of the Liberals at 24%. The Conservatives are weak at 16% but the NDP is strong at 12%.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives hold a small lead with 32%, while the Liberals have gained seven points and are at 30%. We've been seeing a close race here poll after poll. The NDP is at 24%.

The Conservatives have dropped 10 points in Alberta and stand at 48%. The Liberals are doing well with 22%. The Prairies is as it always is, while the Liberals are way ahead in Atlantic Canada with 42% to the NDP's 27% and the Tories' 21%.

The Conservatives would still take the most seats, with 65 out West, 42 in Ontario, 6 in Quebec, and 5 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 118.

The Liberals would stand very close to that number, with 20 seats out West, 53 in Ontario, 16 in Quebec, and 22 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 111.

The Bloc wins 51 seats in Quebec, while the NDP takes 10 seats in the West, 11 in Ontario, 2 in Quebec, and 5 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 28.

Like Allan Gregg says in the poll's analysis, this appears to be the new normal. Until further notice.

New EKOS Poll: 3-pt Conservative Lead

EKOS has come along with its weekly poll. As usual, it is boring. B-O-R-I-N-G.The Conservatives have lost one point and are at 32.4%. The Liberals have lost 0.9 points, and are at 29.4%. Note: the margin of error is 2 points.

The NDP is down 0.6 points and is at 15.2%. The Bloc is up 1.2 points nationally, and the Greens are up 0.1 points. "Other" is at an unnaturally high 3.1%.

In Ontario, the Liberals are doing very well at 38%, while the Conservatives are still in the game at 34.9%. The NDP is struggling at 14.3%. Any variation from EKOS's last poll were within the 3.3 MOE.

In Quebec, the Bloc has gained five points (outside of the 4.0 MOE), and is at 37.8%. The Liberals have lost five points and are not doing well at 22.1%. The only consolation is that they are ahead of the Tories, who are at 15.9%. The NDP is doing well at 12.2%.

In British Columbia - shocking. The Liberals have moved into first place! They have 28.7% compared to the Conservatives' 28.5%. The NDP is also in the logjam at 25.6%. The Greens are at 13.7% - too low. No movements were outside of the 5.1 MOE.

In Alberta, the Liberals are still flying high at 18.9%, though the Conservatives are (of course) ensconced with 59.5%. In the Prairies, the Liberals and NDP are straddling the 20% mark, while the Tories are strongly ahead. And in Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives have moved into first with 32.7%, while the Liberals are at 32.1%. The NDP seems to be falling away. No movements here were outside of the MOE.

Finally, the cities. The only movement that is over and above the MOE is in Vancouver, where the Liberals have gained 10 points. This seems to have been a major source of their move into first place in the province. The Liberals and Tories are vying for top spot in the city.

In Toronto, the Liberals have a 10-point lead, while in Ottawa the Conservatives have a 20-point lead. The Bloc is doing well in and around Montreal, but oddly the NDP is doing worse here than in the province as a whole.

The Conservatives would win 63 seats out West, 41 in Ontario, 6 in Quebec, and 11 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 121.

The Liberals are not far behind with 19 out West, 53 in Ontario, 15 in Quebec, and 17 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 104.

The NDP wins 13 seats out West, 12 in Ontario, 2 in Quebec, and 4 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 31. With the Liberals, they would outnumber the Conservatives.

The Bloc wins 52 seats, thanks to the weakness of the Liberals and Tories. The Greens are shut out.

This poll demonstrates a few things. First, that Ipsos-Reid poll suffered from the MOE. Second, there hasn't been much of a change anywhere. The race to watch, though, could be in British Columbia.

New Angus-Reid Poll: 4-pt Conservative Lead

Boy, sometimes I can really sense the urgency of the news cycle. Those journalists have it rough! This Angus-Reid poll landed in my inbox only 130 minutes ago, but already people are talking about it on this blog, the Twitterverse is already past it, and now we're just waiting for Harris-Decima to post the results of their poll. Sheesh! I just wanted to have lunch and had some work stuff to deal with!Compared to their February 11-13 poll, the Conservatives are up one point (33%), the Liberals are down one (29%), and the NDP is up two. They are at 20%, which is generally their ceiling but always good news for them.

The Bloc is stable nationally and the Greens are down one.

This is more in line with what we've been seeing, especially considering the HD poll today. But, these results are within Ipsos-Reid's MOE, so maybe we just need to chalk up the big gap in that poll to that.

In Ontario, the NDP is up five points and is at an amazing 22%. It actually causes them to hit their seat ceiling in my projection. The Conservatives are down three and the Liberals are down two.

In Quebec, the Bloc is down one to 34%. They seem to poll lower in Angus-Reid polls. The Liberals give five points to the Conservatives (23% and 19%, respectively), while the NDP is up two.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives drop three points to 33%, the Liberals gain seven points to tie them, and the NDP gains five points to stand at 25%.

In the smaller regions, of note is the Liberals at 27% in Alberta. That's up nine points, so a huge variation, but part of what we've been seeing in the province. In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals drop eleven points (eight of them going to the NDP).

The Conservatives would win 128 seats with this poll: 67 in the West, 43 in Ontario, 9 in Quebec, and 9 in Atlantic Canada.

The Liberals win 18 seats out West, 43 in Ontario, 16 in Quebec, and 17 in Atlantic Canada for 94 seats.

The NDP do very well and win 38 seats: 10 out West, 20 in Ontario, 2 in Quebec, and 6 in Atlantic Canada.

The Bloc manages to hold 48 seats.

The poll also asked people whether the various party leaders should remain as head of their respective parties. You can check out the link to see the numbers, but in general, about 4 out of 5 party supporters like the guy heading their party (88% of Bloc supporters are happy with Duceppe), but for the Liberals that drops to about 3 in 5.

It's odd to think the Stéphane Dion had similarly woeful numbers, but yet Michael Ignatieff seems infinitely safer as party leader. I'm not sure why people have such a problem with Ignatieff, he isn't noticeably better or worse than any of the other leaders. They all sound like sleazy car salesmen some days, and they all sound like likable human beings on other days. Did the Tories succeed in defining him?

New Ipsos Poll: 8-pt Conservative Lead

Ipsos-Reid has released a week-old poll that shows some very different results than those we have been seeing lately.Since their January 19-21 poll, the Conservatives have gained three points (37%), the Liberals have lost two (29%), and the NDP has lost one (16%). The Greens have also lost one and the Bloc is stable, nationally.

Because I saw some premature exaltation in the comments yesterday, I feel the need to point out that the EKOS poll (taken between February 17 and February 23) had a result of 33.4% CPC, 30.3% LPC, 15.8% NDP, while the Environics poll (taken between February 22 and February 24) had a result of 31% CPC, 30% LPC, 16% NDP. As it stands, that puts this Ipsos-Reid poll in the position of having the burden of proof. We need some others to confirm that there has been a sea change.

Anyway, to the regionals.

In Ontario, the Liberals have gained two points and are at a very strong 40%. The Conservatives remain stable at 37%, as do the NDP at 15%.

In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois gains two points to reach 39%. The Liberals are down five (25%), and both the Conservatives and NDP are up two (17% and 11%, respectively).

Then the MOE comes into play. In British Columbia, the Conservatives are up 11 points to 47%, while the Liberals are down six (18%) and the NDP is down five (22%). Considering how close the race has been in BC since the beginning of the year, these numbers mark a huge change.

There are even bigger changes in the small regions, namely a 13-point loss for the Conservatives in Alberta, a 15-point gain for them in the Prairies (alongside a 20 point loss for the NDP), and a 16-point gain for the Conservatives in Atlantic Canada. The Liberals lose 10 and the NDP loses nine.

When a poll is at odds with others taken at the same time, and shows huge variations like this, we can't help but feel the need to wait for some more corroborating results. This is the problem with releasing polls more than a week after polling stopped - it gives the impression of movement when instead, had it been released a few days after the end of polling, we would have been discussing why the polls are so different from one another.

This poll would give the Conservatives 138 seats, 77 of them in the West, 43 in Ontario, 7 in Quebec, and 11 in Atlantic Canada.

The Liberals would win 97 seats: 11 of them out West, 52 in Ontario, 16 in Quebec, and 18 in Atlantic Canada.

The NDP would win 7 out West, 11 in Ontario, 1 in Quebec, and 3 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 22.

The Bloc wins 51 seats.

The poll also asked who would make the best Prime Minister. Stephen Harper received 46% (and reached 78% in Alberta), Jack Layton received 33% (53% in Quebec), and Michael Ignatieff had 21% (26% in British Columbia). This seems to demonstrate that people don't vote for leaders.