Compared to EKOS's poll last week, this marks a loss of 0.5 points for the Conservatives (31.9%), a 0.2 point gain for the Liberals (29.6%), a 0.8 point gain for the NDP (16.0%), and a 0.5 point gain for the Greens (11.0%). Nationally, the Bloc is down 0.3 points (9.1%). The other parties get 2.4%. The margin of error is 2.0.These are weak numbers for both the Liberals and the Tories, and even the NDP. No party would go to an election with any certainty with these kinds of numbers. While all changes are within the MOE, this does indicate that the Conservatives are just as road-blocked as the Liberals. As the EKOS analysis says, the budget hasn't budged the numbers.
In Ontario, the Liberals have a weak lead with 35.2% to the Conservatives' 33.4%. The NDP is at 17.9%, up about four points (MOE 3.5). A good result for them.
In Quebec, the Bloc is still comfortably ahead with 36.5%. The Liberals are up five points to 27.4% (MOE 4.3). The Conservatives remain stagnant at 16.0%.
In British Columbia, the Tories make a big jump of about seven points to reach 36.4% (MOE 5.4). The Liberals lose those seven points, and are at 21.9%. They still hold a lead over the NDP at 21.2%.
No variations in the Prairies and Atlantic Canada are larger than the MOE, but in Alberta the Conservatives have dropped 10 points (MOE 6.3) to 50.2% while the NDP is up 8 to 13.0%. The Liberals continue to show strength with 21.9%.
No changes in the cities are larger than the MOE, which ranges between 6.5 and 9.0. But, the Conservatives have the lead in Vancouver and Ottawa, while the Liberals are well ahead in Toronto and making a race of it with the Bloc in Montreal.
The Conservatives would win 68 seats in the West, 39 in Ontario, 6 in Quebec, and 9 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 122.The Liberals win 18 in the West, 50 in Ontario, 19 in Quebec, and 20 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 107.
The Bloc wins 50 seats in Quebec.
The NDP wins 9 in the West, 17 in Ontario, and 3 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 29.
This minority would be weaker than the one Stephen Harper won in 2006. So, who knows what kind of government would come out of it.
A boring poll that confirms a less boring reality: it's a close race, but no one is showing any real strength.
