The Conservatives have lost one point and are at 32.4%. The Liberals have lost 0.9 points, and are at 29.4%. Note: the margin of error is 2 points.The NDP is down 0.6 points and is at 15.2%. The Bloc is up 1.2 points nationally, and the Greens are up 0.1 points. "Other" is at an unnaturally high 3.1%.
In Ontario, the Liberals are doing very well at 38%, while the Conservatives are still in the game at 34.9%. The NDP is struggling at 14.3%. Any variation from EKOS's last poll were within the 3.3 MOE.
In Quebec, the Bloc has gained five points (outside of the 4.0 MOE), and is at 37.8%. The Liberals have lost five points and are not doing well at 22.1%. The only consolation is that they are ahead of the Tories, who are at 15.9%. The NDP is doing well at 12.2%.
In British Columbia - shocking. The Liberals have moved into first place! They have 28.7% compared to the Conservatives' 28.5%. The NDP is also in the logjam at 25.6%. The Greens are at 13.7% - too low. No movements were outside of the 5.1 MOE.
In Alberta, the Liberals are still flying high at 18.9%, though the Conservatives are (of course) ensconced with 59.5%. In the Prairies, the Liberals and NDP are straddling the 20% mark, while the Tories are strongly ahead. And in Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives have moved into first with 32.7%, while the Liberals are at 32.1%. The NDP seems to be falling away. No movements here were outside of the MOE.
Finally, the cities. The only movement that is over and above the MOE is in Vancouver, where the Liberals have gained 10 points. This seems to have been a major source of their move into first place in the province. The Liberals and Tories are vying for top spot in the city.
In Toronto, the Liberals have a 10-point lead, while in Ottawa the Conservatives have a 20-point lead. The Bloc is doing well in and around Montreal, but oddly the NDP is doing worse here than in the province as a whole.
The Conservatives would win 63 seats out West, 41 in Ontario, 6 in Quebec, and 11 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 121.The Liberals are not far behind with 19 out West, 53 in Ontario, 15 in Quebec, and 17 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 104.
The NDP wins 13 seats out West, 12 in Ontario, 2 in Quebec, and 4 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 31. With the Liberals, they would outnumber the Conservatives.
The Bloc wins 52 seats, thanks to the weakness of the Liberals and Tories. The Greens are shut out.
This poll demonstrates a few things. First, that Ipsos-Reid poll suffered from the MOE. Second, there hasn't been much of a change anywhere. The race to watch, though, could be in British Columbia.
