The Conservatives have dropped 1.1 points to 32.2%, while the Liberals are down 0.7 points to 27%. While that is a bad number for the Tories (and a big drop), that is an even worse number for the Liberals. "Dion territory", as they say now. The New Democrats are up 0.1 points to 16.0%, and the Greens are up 1.7 points to 12.7%. The Bloc Québécois is down 0.8 points nationally to 9.0%, while "Other" is up 0.3 points to 3.1%.
In Ontario, all of the three big parties dropped about two points. The Conservatives lead with 35.3%, the Liberals follow with 32.8%, and the NDP is at 15.4%. All bad numbers. The numbers aren't bad for the Tories in Toronto, however, where they are close behind the Liberals with 35.1%. The Liberals are at 37.2%. In Ottawa, the Liberals (42.3%) have gained six points at the expense of the NDP, and are tied with the Tories who have 42.5%.
In Quebec, the Bloc is down about three points to 35.9%, while the Liberals and Conservatives gained each about a point, and stand at 21.8% and 17.3%, respectively. However, these are well below where they need to be. The Bloc leads in Montreal with 35.8%, followed by the Liberals at 28.9%.
In British Columbia, the Liberals have gained about five points and lead with 29.6%. Yes, lead. The Conservatives dropped four points to 29.4%, while the NDP dropped one point to 25.0%. The Tories lead in Vancouver, however, with 34.8%, followed by the NDP at 28.8% (up eight points).
The Liberals lead, barely, in Atlantic Canada with 32.7%, down six points. In Alberta, the Tories have 52.8%, but the Liberals have dropped five points to 14.6%, pushing them out of contention for a seat. In the Prairies, the Conservatives lead with 48.9%, while the Liberals have dropped six to 21.4% and the NDP is down nine to 14.2%.
The Conservatives would win 66 seats in the West, 50 in Ontario, 8 in Quebec, and 8 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 132.The Liberals would win 18 in the West, 42 in Ontario, 15 in Quebec, and 18 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 93.
The Bloc would win 50 seats in Quebec.
The NDP would win 11 seats in the West, 14 in Ontario, 2 in Quebec, and 6 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 33.
Since Secretary of State Hillary Clinton brought it up, Angus-Reid has a timely poll on how Canadians feel about extending the mission in Afghanistan into 2011.
If an extension took the form of a combat role, only 16% of Canadians would support it, and 79% would oppose it. That is pretty unanimous, and a good indication of why the Conservative government stuck to its (lack of) guns. Support was highest in the Prairies (23%), while opposition was highest in Quebec (85%).
If an extension took the form of training the Afghan Army, 54% would support it and 39% would oppose it. Support was highest in Atlantic Canada (66%), while opposition was highest in Quebec (47%). It is interesting that Atlantic Canadians would support a training mission in such high numbers, as their opposition to a combat role was second only to Quebec.
The events of the last few weeks have seemed to hurt everyone. The Liberals didn't make any headway with their Canada 150 conference (but really, who thought they would?) and the Conservatives haven't made any ground with the abortion and Afghanistan issues still being talked about. What is surprising is that no one is taking advantage of the weakness of the other parties. The NDP and Bloc have managed to keep themselves out of the fray and stable, which relative to the Liberals and Conservatives is a good thing, but the Greens and Others are making gains, likely indicative of a disaffection voters could be feeling towards the traditional parties. Whether those gains would translate into actual voting support, however, is another question entirely.
