New EKOS Poll: 4.6-pt Conservative Lead

EKOS's weekly poll indicates that while the recent scandals and issues have weakened the Conservatives, it hasn't dragged them down.EKOS points out that in the wake of the Guergis scandal, the Liberals and Conservatives were polling at a tie. But over the last week, things have normalized and the Liberals have falled back 1.9 points to 27.1%. The Conservatives are up 0.3 points to 31.7%. That is still way too low for the governing party.

The New Democrats are down 0.1 points to 16.3%, while the Greens are up 1.5 to 12.6% and the Bloc Québécois is up 0.7 points to 9.5%. "Other" is down 0.6 points to 2.7%.

In Ontario, the Liberals and Conservatives have traded about two points, as the Liberals are down to 34.6% and the Conservatives are up to 33.1%. The Liberals can be happy with the lead, but they need to be doing better. The NDP is stable, with 17.0%. The Liberals lead in Toronto with 40.8%, followed by the Conservatives at 30.6%. In Ottawa, the Tories lead with 41.7%, while the NDP seems to have taken their biggest hit (11 points) here.

In Quebec, the Bloc is up three points to 38.4%, dominating over the Liberals who are at 22.7% (down one). The Conservatives have fallen away steeply, down two points to 13.8%. The Greens are at 12.0%. In Montreal, the Bloc leads the Liberals 32.4% to 21.8%.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives are moving back into a comfortable lead, up two points to 34.7%. The NDP is up four to 28.1% and the Liberals are down four to a troublesome 21.6%. The Greens are steady at 13.3%. The Conservatives lead in Vancouver with 36.2%.

Elsewhere, the Tories lead in Atlantic Canada with 34.7% and the Prairies with 43.8%. The NDP is down six points there to 18.2%. In Alberta, the Conservatives are well ahead with 56.4%.

The Conservatives would win 66 seats in the West, 39 in Ontario, 4 in Quebec, and 12 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 121 seats. That dismal result in Quebec hurts.

The Liberals win 15 seats in the West, 49 in Ontario, 17 in Quebec, and 17 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 98.

The Bloc wins 54 seats, matching their all-time best. They really just have no competition.

The NDP wins 14 seats in the West, 18 in Ontario, and 3 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 35. Coupled with the Liberals, they outnumber the Tories 133 to 121.

The big thing to take away from this poll is that all of the brouhaha in Ottawa is not having much of an effect, other than to disillusion enough Canadians to make either one of the two major parties the choice of less than 1/3rd of Canadians. A governing mandate built on such a low level of support would be difficult to justify.