The Conservatives have gained 0.5 points since last week, now at 33.6%. The Liberals are up one point to 27.1%, and the New Democrats are up 0.9 points to 16.9%.The Greens are down 0.9 to 10.6% and the Bloc Québécois is down 0.9 points to 9.3%. "Other" is also down to 2.5%.
Like other polls have shown, Conservative strength is based on male support. Among males they are at 37.4%, compared to 29.7% among females. The Liberals split 29.7% to 28.2% among males and females.
In Ontario, the Conservatives are steady at 36.2%, while the Liberals are up two to 35.1%. The NDP is stable at 16.3%. The Liberals lead in Toronto (41.4%) and Ottawa (37.9%), where they are up about seven points.
In Quebec, the Bloc is down two points to 37.7% but still well ahead of the Liberals, who are down one to 20.4%. The Conservatives are down two to 16% and the NDP is up four to 13.6%. In Montreal, the Bloc leads with 35.6%.
In British Columbia, the Conservatives are up four to 34.0%. The NDP is steady at 26.3%, the Liberals are down one to 23.5%, and the Greens are steady at 15.0%. In Vancouver, the Conservatives lead with 33.9%, followed by the Liberals at 26.7% (up eight) and the NDP at 22.7% (down eight).
The Conservatives lead in Atlantic Canada with 37.8% (which is actually where they were last week), Alberta with 55.4% (up five), and in the Prairies with 45.4%. The Liberals are down five points to 25.3% there.
Significantly, the Liberals do not lead in any region of the country.
The Conservatives win 66 seats in the West, 47 in Ontario, 6 in Quebec, and 12 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 131.The Liberals win 16 seats in the West, 45 in Ontario, 15 in Quebec, and 17 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 93.
The Bloc wins 52 seats in Quebec.
The NDP wins 13 seats in the West, 14 in Ontario, 2 in Quebec, and 3 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 32.
A recent change in the poll projections is that the Liberals and NDP now no longer out-number the Conservatives. At this rate, though the Tories look to have some losses in both seats and support, they would still be safe as a minority government.
Both the Conservatives and the Liberals are starting to show some life, but they are still well below where they want to be.
