Compared to EKOS's last poll, the Conservatives have gained 0.8 points to 34.4%. The Liberals are down two points to 25.1%, and the NDP is down 1.6 points to 15.3%. The Greens are up 1.4 points to 12.0%, while the Bloc is up 1.3 points to 10.6%. The other parties are stable at 2.5%.
This is a horrid number for the Liberals. Just terrible. And the NDP number is very bad as well. The Conservative lead is excellent, but they still aren't strong enough to eke out a majority.
In Ontario, the Conservatives lead with 38.5% (up three). The Liberals follow with 31.4% (down four) and the NDP with 15.5% (stable). The Liberals lead in Toronto with 38.4%, while the Conservatives lead in Ottawa with 50% (up 13). It is very difficult to figure out what is going on in Ontario, as the recent Harris-Decima poll gave the Liberals a narrow lead, while EKOS here has a definitive Conservative lead. We've also seen closer races in other polls.
In Quebec, the Bloc is up four points to 41.9%, a very good number for them. The Liberals are stable with 19.9%, but to be below 20% is a very bad omen for them. The Conservatives are down one to 14.7% and the NDP is down two to 11.7%. In Montreal, the Bloc is up 12 points to 47.9%.
In British Columbia, the Conservatives are up four to 38.1%, while the NDP is down two to 23.7%. The Liberals are down four to 20.1% and the Greens are down one to 14.0%.
The Conservatives lead in Atlantic Canada with 36%, the Prairies with 43.4%, and Alberta with 56.9%.
This is a very good poll for the Tories - except they are still not doing well enough in Quebec.
The Conservatives win 68 seats in the West, 55 in Ontario, 5 in Quebec, and 12 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 140.The Liberals win 17 seats in the West, 37 in Ontario, 13 in Quebec, and 17 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 84.
The Bloc wins 55 seats, their best ever.
The NDP wins 10 seats in the West, 14 in Ontario, 2 in Quebec, and 3 in Atlantic Canada.
In last week's EKOS poll, the Conservatives had 131 seats, the Liberals 93, the Bloc 52, and the NDP 32. So, the Conservatives and Bloc make gains at the expense of both the Liberals and the NDP.
This would be an odd result for everyone. The Conservatives actually lose seats and a good chunk of popular support, but still form a comparable government to the one they have today. The Liberals make a few gains with less support, but are still very far from where they need to be. The NDP takes a big hit in support and MPs, while the Bloc stands to be the only party to make significant gains.
