Compared to Léger's last poll in September 2009, the Conservatives are steady at 36%. Apparently, prorogation and all that hasn't changed a thing. The Liberals have dropped five points to 25%, which will be the lowest number in my model, and the NDP is up three points to 20%. The Bloc Québécois is up one to 9%, the Greens are steady at 8%, and "Other" is up one to 2%.
Interestingly, 7% of respondents said they wouldn't vote. This shows why polls have a limit in their reliability. More than 40% of Canadians didn't vote in 2008. But, then again if I recall correctly, the survey of the official study of the 2008 election only found that around 25% said they didn't vote.
In Ontario, the Conservatives have a big lead with 39% to the Liberals' 30%. The NDP is up to 21%, a good result for them. This marks a one point loss for the Tories, a four point loss for the Liberals, and a four point gain for the NDP.
In Quebec, the Bloc leads with 36% (up three since September), followed by the Liberals at a woeful 21% (down nine!). The Conservatives and NDP are tied at 19%, up two for the Tories and up five for the NDP. That is an incredible number for the New Democrats.
In British Columbia, the Conservatives lead with 41%, up two points. The NDP is at 27%, up six, and the Liberals follow with 24%, down two. The Greens are not doing well with 8%.
Elsewhere, the Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada with 37%, where the Tories have made a six-point gain. The Conservatives are well in front with 62%, where the parties are virtually unchanged (though the Tories are down six). The Conservatives lead in the Prairies with 44%, but that is down seven points.
The Conservatives win 69 seats in the West, 56 in Ontario, 8 in Quebec, and 8 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 141.The Liberals win 16 in the West, 32 in Ontario, 14 in Quebec, and 19 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 81.
The Bloc wins 51 seats.
The NDP wins 10 seats in the West, 18 in Ontario, 2 in Quebec, and five in Atlantic Canada for a total of 35.
It's 2008 all over again!
Now, before you look at these numbers and wonder why the NDP does slightly worse and the Liberals do slightly better with national results that are, in fact, slightly better and slightly worse (respectively) than the 2008 election, note that the Liberals are up five in British Columbia, nine in the Prairies, and two in Atlantic Canada over Stéphane Dion's performance. The NDP are down eight in the Prairies and up seven in Quebec, where the vote is mostly wasted.
As to who is the favourite for Prime Minister, Stephen Harper leads with 31% (down one). The party, it seems, is more popular than him. The same can't be said for Jack Layton, who is the favourite of 23% (up five). Michael Ignatieff has seen a dip in his popularity since September, dropping from 21% to 16%.
As to who is most trusted, the results were Harper 27% (down two), Layton 21% (up four), Ignatieff 11% (down three), Gilles Duceppe 10%, and Elizabeth May 9%.
Horrid numbers for the Liberal leader, but let's not over-look that Harper is not doing spectacularly either. Layton has room for growth.
What explains the recent surge for the New Democrats? The HST? Distaste with the Liberals? It is hard to figure, as they haven't been in the spotlight much lately.
