New EKOS Poll: 5.5-pt Conservative Lead

Like the cleaning of a house, it never ends: EKOS has its new poll out for this week. The biggest change is a drop for the Conservatives.Compared to last week, the Conservatives are down 2.2 points to 31.7%. The Liberals were not the biggest beneficiary, though they did gain 0.5 points to 26.2%. It was the New Democrats who saw the biggest gain, 0.9 points to 17.4% - a high result for them with EKOS.

The Greens are down 0.4 points to 11.5% and the Bloc Québécois is up 0.9 to 10.3%.

In Ontario, the Tories dropped five points to 34.3%. The Liberals gained three points to 34.2%, while the NDP gained one point to reach 16.8%. Ontario seems to be the major source of the Liberal and Conservative shifts. The Liberals lead in Toronto with 35.6% while the Conservatives are ahead in Ottawa with 39.1%.

In Quebec, the Bloc has gained four points and leads with 40.7%. The Liberals are way behind with 19.6%, down one point. The Conservatives follow with 15.3%, also down one, and the NDP is at 11%, down two. The Bloc leads in Montreal with 42.6%.

In British Columbia, the Tories are up three to 33.6%. The NDP has also gained three points and has 26.9%. The Liberals are down three to 19.8%, while the Greens are stable at 16.8%. The Conservatives lead in Vancouver with 33.9%.

The Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada with 33.6%, down five. The NDP is up seven to 23.4%. The Conservatives lead in Alberta with 54.6% and in the Prairies with 39.4%.

The Conservatives win 62 seats in the West, 44 in Ontario, 5 in Quebec, and 10 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 121 - a big drop from the 137 seats the Tories were projected to win in EKOS's poll last week.

The Liberals win 16 seats in the West and North, 46 in Ontario, 14 in Quebec, and 18 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 94, a gain of seven seats from last week.

The Bloc wins 54 seats in Quebec, thanks to the very low support for the Liberals and Conservatives in the province.

The NDP wins 17 seats in the West and North, 16 in Ontario, 2 in Quebec, and 4 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 39, a gain of seven.

With a combined 133 seats, it is possible the Liberals and NDP would be able to form a government. While some might question the legitimacy of two smaller parties forming government, the legitimacy of a government with only 31.7% support is just as questionable, especially considering this would be a drop of six points from 2008.