Compared to EKOS's last two-week poll (though this poll encompasses only the last week), both the Liberals and the Conservatives have gained 1.1 points. The Conservatives now stand at 32.5% while the Liberals are at 27.9%. The New Democrats are up 0.1 to 17.4%. The Greens drop 0.7 to 10.3% and the Bloc Québécois drops 1.2 points to 9.2%. The poll found that 15% of Canadians were undecided.
If we compare this last week of polling to polling done between August 4 and 10, we don't see much change. What we do see, however, is that the NDP jumped about two points between Week 1 and Week 2, in part due to better performances in Atlantic Canada. The Conservatives jumped in British Columbia while the Liberals and Conservatives headed in different directions in Ontario to the benefit of the Grits.
Compared to EKOS's release two weeks ago, however, the Liberals are up four points in Ontario to 35.7%. The Conservatives are down one to 32.4%. A lead in this province is BIG for the Liberals. The NDP is also down one to 17.6%. The Liberals lead in Toronto with 43.8% (followed by the Conservatives at 30.7%) and Ottawa with 49.3% (with the Conservatives at 30.4%). That Ottawa number is unlikely, though it would also not be surprising if the past few weeks have had an effect on the public service population in the capital.
The Bloc is down five points in Quebec to 36.2%, while the Liberals and Conservatives have gained two points apiece. They stand at 25.1% and 17.3%, respectively. The NDP is steady at 10.2%. The Bloc leads in Montreal with 40.3%, followed by the Liberals at 29.9%.
The Conservatives are up five points in British Columbia and lead with 41.1%, a good number for them. The NDP is down four to 23.5% while the Liberals are stable at 21.9%. The Greens are up one to 11.8%. The Conservatives lead in Vancouver with 32.5%, followed closely by the Liberals at 26.4%.
The Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada with 35.1%, followed by the Conservatives at 31.1%. The NDP have jumped six points here to 26.3%.
The Conservatives lead in Alberta with 55.2%. The Liberals are well behind with 17.6%.
The Tories also lead in the Prairies with 41.4%, which is a drop of seven points. The NDP is up 11 to 33.5% and the Liberals are down six to 14.2%.
The Conservatives win 72 seats in the West and North, 36 in Ontario, 8 in Atlantic Canada, and 7 in Quebec for a total of 123. Their performance in Ontario is a killer.The Liberals win 52 seats in Ontario, 19 in Atlantic Canada, 17 in Quebec, and 12 in the West and North for a total of 100. A nice round number.
The Bloc wins 49 seats in Quebec.
The NDP wins 18 seats in Ontario, 11 in the West, 5 in Atlantic Canada and 2 in Quebec for a total of 36.
Relatively speaking, this is a good poll for the Liberals and the NDP. While the Conservatives still have the lead, their caucus would be reduced significantly. The Liberals would make a big gain while the NDP would maintain itself. Together the two parties would outnumber the Conservatives, making life difficult in the House of Commons if Stephen Harper remained as Prime Minister.
The Conservatives are still hobbled and with the recent news about the RCMP and veterans' affairs, they aren't going to be making any gains. The Liberals are still weak but are showing signs of life: most polls have had Michael Ignatieff's party on the upswing. With all that has been going on this summer (and it has been pretty tumultuous!) it sets up an interesting fall session of Parliament.
