Conservatives - 33.7 (+0.3)
Liberals - 28.6 (-1.0)
New Democrats - 16.0 (+0.8)
Bloc Québécois - 9.8% (-0.2)
Greens - 9.5% (-0.7)
Others - 2.4% (+0.8)
At first glance, it seems that the Liberals have taken a step bakwards to the benefit of the NDP. But the Greens are also down and the Conservatives have made a modest gain, so it looks like a little bit of oscillation between the parties. As none of these movements are part of a trend, we're likely just shifting within the margin of error.
The seat projection for these results is as follows, with the difference from last month in brackets:Conservatives - 130 (+1)
Liberals - 95 (-6)
Bloc Québécois - 54 (+2)
New Democrats - 29 (+3)
Greens - 0 (unchanged)
The Conservatives gain a seat, but that makes a gain of five seats over the last two months. The Bloc and NDP make a few gains, while the Liberals lose six seats.
The regional results, with difference from last month in brackets:BRITISH COLUMBIA (8 polls - about 1,460 people - MOE +/- 2.6)
Conservatives - 31.4% (-2.0)
New Democrats - 27.7% (+3.2)
Liberals - 23.1% (-2.8)
Greens - 15.1% (+0.7)
Others - 2.7%
The Conservatives have lost five points over the last two months, but are still holding the lead in the province. The NDP has made a big gain, while the Liberals lost some ground. And for the Greens, this marks a gain of 1.5 points over the last two months. The Conservatives would win 16 seats (-2 from last month) with these numbers, with the NDP taking 11 (+3) and the Liberals nine (-1).
ALBERTA (7 polls - about 1,190 people - MOE +/- 2.8)
Conservatives - 57.8 (-0.9)
Liberals - 18.8 (-1.5)
New Democrats - 11.2% (+1.7)
Greens - 9.2% (-0.5)
Others - 3.0%
Just a little movement back and forth, with the NDP making gains at the expense of the Liberals. The Greens, however, have now lost 2.1 points over the last two months. The Conservatives would win 27 seats (unchanged), while the Liberals would win one (unchanged).
PRAIRIES (7 polls - about 790 people - MOE +/- 3.5)
Conservatives - 46.6% (+0.1)
Liberals - 22.8% (+1.0)
New Democrats - 18.9% (-2.3)
Greens - 8.5% (-0.4)
Others - 3.2%
The Conservatives have held steady while the Liberals have made a good gain. The NDP dropped big in October, but that makes it a loss of 3.1 points since September. Unchanged from last month, the Conservatives would win 21 seats to the Liberals' four and the NDP's three.
ONTARIO (8 polls - about 4,860 people - MOE +/- 1.4)
Conservatives - 38.3 % (+1.8)
Liberals - 35.6% (-1.1)
New Democrats - 15.6% (+1.3)
Greens - 9.2% (-1.9)
Others - 1.3%
The Conservatives and Liberals swapped positions in Ontario, with the Tories now on a roll. They've gain 3.1 points in the last two months. The NDP is also up, with the Greens and Liberal both dropping over a point. The Conservatives would win 51 seats (+5), while the Liberals would win 44 (-4) and the New Democrats 11 (-1).
QUEBEC (9 polls - about 4,190 people - MOE +/- 1.5)
Bloc Québécois - 39.5% (+1.2)
Liberals - 23.4% (-0.7)
Conservatives - 14.5% (-2.3)
New Democrats - 11.5% (-0.6)
Greens - 8.5% (+1.0)
Others - 2.6%
After seeing a drop in support in both August and September, the Bloc is back with a gain. The Liberals are down a little, while the Conservatives are down even more. The Bloc would win 54 seats (+2), while the Liberals would win 15 (unchanged), the Conservatives five (+2), and the New Democrats one (unchanged).
ATLANTIC CANADA (8 polls - about 910 people - MOE +/- 3.3)
Liberals - 38.9% (-0.7)
Conservatives - 33.4% (+1.4)
New Democrats - 19.7% (+0.9)
Greens - 6.4% (-1.7)
Others - 1.6%
The Liberals slipped in October here (and have dropped three points in two months), but still lead. The Conservatives, on the other hand, have gained 6.1 points since September. The New Democrats are regaining some of the support they've lost over the last few months. The Liberals would win 20 (-1) seats. The Conservatives would win nine (unchanged) and the New Democrats three (+1).
The worst performer this month, determined by net gain or loss in the six regions, is the Liberal Party. They suffered a net loss of 5.8 points, with important dips in support in Ontario, Alberta, and particularly British Columbia. The gain in the Prairies hardly makes up for it.Next worst was the Green Party, with a net loss of 2.8 points. The party is heading in the right direction in British Columbia, but is dropping in Ontario.
Middle-of-the-pack is the Conservative Party, with a net loss of 1.9 points. They made good gains in Atlantic Canada and Ontario, but suffered bad losses in Quebec and British Columbia.
Runner-up is the Bloc Québécois, with a gain of 1.2 points in Quebec. The gap between them and the Liberals is now 16.1 points, widened by 1.9 points this past month.
And, finally, this month's winners are the New Democrats, with a net gain of 4.2 points. Gains in Alberta, Ontario, and British Columbia were of a good size, while modest growth in Atlantic Canada is a piece of good news. The only problem area this month for the NDP seems to have been in the Prairies, while a step backwards in Quebec is a negative sign.
