Tories, NDP look secure in Manitoba but Vaughan will go down to wire

While there is little doubt surrounding the outcome of two of the three by-elections on Nov. 29, all eyes will be on Vaughan, the Toronto-area riding where former OPP commissioner and Conservative candidate Julian Fantino will try to steal the seat from the incumbent Liberals.

You can read the rest of my article on the upcoming by-elections on The Globe and Mail website.

I'll update these projections here on the blog as we approach the actual by-election. I based these calculations on two things: uniform swing based on the current regional popular vote projections, and "resistance" to these wider swings. That is, how the 2009 by-election results differed from what a uniform swing should've given.

It was a fascinating exercise for me, as it demonstrated that, without much exception since 2006, the Conservatives have done a good job in keeping up their vote in by-elections. Undoubtedly it helps to be in government. The Liberals and NDP tend to do worse, but at similar levels, while the Greens are horrendous.

I'll have a full report on yesterday's Harris-Decima poll later on today.