Tories edge back ahead of combined Liberal-NDP forces in seat projection

Fresh off two by-election wins a week ago, Stephen Harper and his Conservative Party have also made some gains in the polls and are now projected to win more seats than the combined total of the Liberal and New Democratic parties. But the Prime Minister would still likely see more than a dozen of his current MPs defeated were an election held today.

The rest of the article can be read on The Globe and Mail website.

But as my spidey senses are telling me this will be a busy week for polls, I'm going to update the projection here on the site as well.As a somewhat more lyrical pose can be found in my G&M article, you'll get just the facts here.

Nationally, the Conservatives have gained 0.8 points and three seats and now lead with 34.6% and 130 seats. The Liberals are up 0.2 points but down two seats, and are projected to take 29.4% of the vote and 96 seats. The New Democrats are up 0.3 points but down one seat, and are projected to win 16.4% of the vote and 29 seats.

The Bloc Québécois is up 0.2 points to 9.9% nationally, while the Greens are down 0.1 points to 8.5%.

In Ontario, the Conservatives have gained 0.4 points and one seat, and are projected to take 37.4% of the vote and 48 seats. The Liberals are at 36.7% (+0.7) and 46 seats (unchanged), while the NDP is at 16.2% (-0.1) and 12 seats (-1). The Greens have dropped 0.4 points to 8.6%.

The Bloc is at 38.7% in Quebec, up 0.7 points, and is unchanged at 53 seats. The Liberals are at 24.2% (+0.7) and 15 seats, the Conservatives are at 16.3% (-0.4) and six seats, and the New Democrats are at 13.0% (-0.2) and one seat. The seat projections here have not changed since the last update. The Greens, however, are up 0.5 points to 6.6%.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives have gained 1.8 points and lead with 35.7%. The NDP is up 0.6 points to 26.1%, while the Liberals and Greens are down 1.2 points and 0.1 points, respectively, to 24% and 11.9%. The Conservatives are projected to win 19 seats (+2) while the Liberals and New Democrats each lose one and are projected to win eight and nine seats, respectively.

The Liberals are at 37.4% (-1.0) in Atlantic Canada, followed by the Conservatives at 33.3% (+2.1), the New Democrats at 20.5% (-1.7), and the Greens at 6.4% (-0.1). The Conservatives take one seat from the Liberals, and are projected to win nine to the Liberals' 19 and the NDP's four.

The Conservatives have gained a full point in Alberta and lead with 60.5%. The Liberals are down 0.6 to 18.8% while the NDP is up 0.3 points to 10.2%. The Greens are at 8%, down 0.5 points. The Conservatives are projected to win 27 seats and the Liberals one, unchanged from the last update.

Finally, in the Prairies the Conservatives are down 1.6 points to 44.4%. The Liberals follow with 23.3% (+0.5) and the NDP is at 22.4% (+0.6). The Greens are at 7.5%, up 0.5 points. The Liberals gain a seat from the Conservatives, and are projected to win five seats. The Conservatives would take 20 and the NDP three.

In terms of net gains and losses over the six regions, the Conservatives come out on top with a net gain of 3.3 points. Increases of about two points in British Columbia and Atlantic Canada are good bits of news, but the drop in Quebec is not.

The Bloc comes out in second with a gain of 0.7 points in Quebec.

The Greens had a net loss of 0.1 points, but more importantly dropped in British Columbia and Ontario.

The NDP had a net loss of 0.5 points, but gains out West were good.

The Liberals had the worst two weeks, with a net loss of 0.9 points. They gained in Ontario, Quebec, and the Prairies but lost more in British Columbia, Alberta, and Atlantic Canada.