Liberals up, NDP down in new Abacus poll

Abacus Data released a new poll on Friday, showing movement between the Liberals and New Democrats. More to the point, it brings Abacus's data about even with everyone else's.When we last heard from Abacus Data at the beginning of December, the Tories had an 11-point lead. The Conservatives haven't budged from their 35% result of that poll, but the Liberals have gained three and now trail at 27%. The New Democrats took the brunt of the Liberal gain, dropping two points to 18%.

The Bloc Québécois is steady at 10%, while the Greens are down one to 9% in this online poll.

The Tories still hold a tremendous lead among men, being favoured 41% to 26% over the Liberals. But the two parties are tied at 29% among women.

In Ontario, the Conservatives are steady at 38% while the Liberals are up six big ones to 36%. The New Democrats are down five points to 16%, while the Greens are down two to 9%.

The Bloc has gained one point in Quebec and leads with 41%, while the Liberals and Conservatives are tied and unchanged at a dismal 18%. The NDP is down one to 16%, but still performing well.

The Conservatives have gained six points in British Columbia and lead with 41%, while the New Democrats are up three points to 29%. The Liberals are down three to 18%. The Greens are also down, dropping one point to 13%.

In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals jump 11 points to 44%, while the Conservatives have fallen five points (30%) and the NDP three points (23%).

The Conservatives lead in Alberta with 55%, while the Liberals are up six points to 24%. The NDP is down four to 9%, tied with the Greens.

In the Prairies, the Conservatives are down four points to 44%, followed by the NDP at 27% (+4) and the Liberals at 15% (-8).

With the results of this poll, I would project 21 Conservative seats in British Columbia, 26 in Alberta, 22 in the Prairies, 49 in Ontario, seven in Quebec, and seven in Atlantic Canada for a total of 133. That is seven fewer than I projected for Abacus's last poll.

The Liberals would win four seats in British Columbia, two in Alberta, one in the Prairies, 45 in Ontario, 12 in Quebec, and 22 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 88, 11 more than last time.

The Bloc Québécois would win 55 seats in Quebec, one more than in the projection for the early December poll.

The New Democrats would win 11 seats in British Columbia, none in Alberta, five in the Prairies, 12 in Ontario, one in Quebec, and three in Atlantic Canada for a total of 32. That's a drop of five seats.

Abacus also looked at the solidity of voting intentions. Most decided voters were somewhat or very unlikely to change their vote, and it didn't vary much for the major parties: 94% for Bloc voters, 90% for Conservative voters, 83% for New Democratic voters, and 82% for Liberal voters. But only 60% of Green voters were somewhat or very unlikely to change their vote.

There's not much new in this poll, though it is a better result for the NDP than what we've been seeing from most other pollsters. However, Abacus's track record to date shows them as one of the better pollsters for the NDP, so the 18% comes with a big grain of salt.

New Projection Model in the Works

On a completely unrelated topic, rest assured that work is going on feverishly behind the scenes to develop a new seat projection model that will be capable of making individual projections for all 308 ridings in the country. The current projection model is far less sophisticated than the one I have in the works. But the current model does not merely rely upon simple vote margins or uniform swing, and that will continue to be the case for the new model. For every riding, the new model will take into account the presence of star candidates, of cabinet ministers, of the role of incumbency, of financing, and the individual voting histories of each and every riding. I will also be tracking smaller regional and city-wide polls and taking those into account. For example, though the new projection model is still in its preliminary stages, I'm able to project the vote in the Vancouver Region to be 45.7% for the Conservatives, 21.2% for the Liberals, 18.3% for the New Democrats, and 13.6% for the Greens.

The national and regional popular vote projection model, however, will not be changing. I believe it is sound, especially now that the age and margin-of-error of each poll is being weighted more accurately.

I've already started developing the new seat projection model, using British Columbia as my starting point. Geographically, it's the natural place to start. But it is also a province with many three-way races and pockets of support for each of the three main parties. It also isn't too large, so I can run some tests easily, but it also isn't too small or homogeneous that the tests would be meaningless. I will keep you all updated on how things are developing.

Liberals trump Tories on Twitter and Facebook, but Harper rules Google roost

Canadian politics are changing, 140 characters at a time.

Naheed Nenshi used the power of social media and the Internet to take him from fringe candidate to Mayor of Calgary last year, and Barack Obama used it to bring a new generation of voters to the U.S. ballot box in 2008. Handshaking, baby-kissing and television advertisements continue to be a part of politics, but the party that best uses social media in the next federal election could come out on top.

The rest of the article can be read on The Globe and Mail website.

Election ready, but election willing?

The New Democrats say they are ready for an election, but are they ready to topple the government?

You can also read my column in The Hill Times, though it does require a subscription.

I'll try to post about last week's Abacus Data poll this afternoon.

Little change in EKOS poll, 52% want an election in 2011

Typos in graphics corrected. Liberals at 27.9% nationally, not 29.9%, and this would give 94 seats, not 92. My apologies.

A new poll from EKOS shows that little has changed in the last two weeks.Compared to EKOS's last poll, the Conservatives have picked up 0.9 points and now lead with 35.4%. The Liberals are also up: 0.6 points to 27.9%. For those keeping score, that's an increase of the Tory lead by a tiny 0.3 points.

The New Democrats, however, are stable at 14.8%, well below where they need to be.

The Bloc Québécois is at 9.7%, while the Greens are down 0.5 points to 9.8%.

Note: Check out the EKOS PDF as they have a very neat breakdown of the differing results of various polling methods.

In Ontario, the Conservatives are up a point to 37.5%, while the Liberals are down one to 34.3%. The NDP is up one to 15.1%, while the Greens are stable at 10.5%. The Liberals are leading in Toronto with 38.2% to the Conservatives' 37.4%, but the Tories are up in Ottawa with 47.3% to the Liberals' 32.4%.

The Bloc is down one point in Quebec but still leads with 38.8%. The Liberals are up one to 22.4%, the Conservatives are down one to 18%, and the New Democrats have gained a point and are in fourth with 11.4%. The Bloc leads in Montreal with 41%, while the Liberals trail with 22.7%.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives are holding steady with 37.8% support, while the Liberals have picked up three points and are in second with 23.5%. The New Democrats have dropped four points to 18.9%, a result that is more likely than not on the low side. The Greens are at the opposite end, with a three point gain to 16.7%. The Conservatives are dominating in the Vancouver area, with 49.2%. The Liberals are running second with 17.9%.

Both the Liberals and Tories are up in Atlantic Canada, with 36% for the former (+4) and 34.4% for the latter (+2). That gain has come from the NDP, which is down six points to 19.8%.

Little movement in Alberta, where the Conservatives are leading with 59%. The Liberals are still doing alright with 20.3% support. In Calgary, the Conservatives lead the Liberals by 55.7% to 26.5%.

Finally, in the Prairies things have reset themselves after the unusually close race of two weeks ago. The Conservatives are up 10 points to 48.1%, the Liberals are down nine points to 23.4%, and the NDP is up four points to 19.7%. That's more what you'd expect to see.

With the results of this poll, I would project the Conservatives to win 23 seats in British Columbia, 27 in Alberta, 21 in the Prairies, 51 in Ontario, seven in Quebec, and 10 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 140. That is a gain of four seats from my projection for EKOS' last poll, with the gains coming primarily in the Prairies and Ontario.

The Liberals would win 10 seats in British Columbia, one in Alberta, five in the Prairies, 42 in Ontario, 15 in Quebec, and 19 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 94, one more than last time.

The Bloc Québécois would win 52 seats in Quebec, unchanged from two weeks ago.

The New Democrats would win three seats in British Columbia, none in Alberta, two in the Prairies, 13 in Ontario, one in Quebec, and three in Atlantic Canada for a total of 22. That's down five from last time, in large part due to the sorry result in BC.

Generally speaking, this poll is very similar to my current projection.

But it had other interesting tidbits, too. Forty percent of Canadians would prefer that the next government be Conservative (28% said a majority, 12% a minority), while 37% said they wanted it to be Liberal (17% minority and 20% majority). That is surprisingly close, as is the poll on a Conservative government vs. a coalition government: 41% would choose the Tories (likely the party's ceiling in general), 39% would choose the coalition. One worrying note for the coalition, however, would be that they've narrowly lost Ontario to the Conservatives. Only Quebec and Atlantic Canada have a plurality who would prefer a coalition government.

A little less than one-third of Canadians (30%) want the election to take place soon, while fully 52% want it to take place sometime in 2011, despite 41% believing it will end up with another Conservative minority. But of all party supporters, only a majority of those who vote Conservative want the next election to take place in 2012.

So, more fuel for the election fire. Conservatives doing well enough, Liberals still in it, Bloc still up, NDP still at risk. One wonders if the speculation will continue for the next two months, which is when the budget is rumoured to be introduced. I'm not sure if that kind of rampant speculation can be sustained for eight weeks!

With a dozen MPs vulnerable, NDP faces defensive campaign

Jack Layton marked his eighth anniversary as Leader of the New Democratic Party this week. He has much to celebrate, having brought the party back to the glory days of Ed Broadbent and enjoyed a popularity rating that’s outpaced that of the last two Liberal leaders. In 2008, the NDP made breakthroughs in Newfoundland, Alberta, and Quebec and was a prorogation away from forming part of a coalition government. But Mr. Layton’s fourth campaign could be his toughest.

The full article can be read on The Globe and Mail website.

As with the other pieces I've done on the Greens and the Bloc Québécois, here is a full account of the ridings that factor in to the NDP's electoral calculus.

In general, these ridings are listed in order from most to least (secure/vulnerable/ etc.), but that was not a focus of my analysis.

FORTRESS RIDINGS (9)

St. John's East
Sackville - Eastern Shore
Acadie - Bathurst
Timmins - James Bay
Vancouver East
Windsor West
Hamilton Centre
Winnipeg Centre
Windsor - Tecumseh

SECURE RIDINGS (15)

Victoria
Burnaby - New Westminster
Skeena - Bulkley Valley
British Columbia Southern Interior
Nickel Belt
New Westminster - Coquitlam
Nanaimo - Cowichan
Hamilton Mountain
Toronto - Danforth
Churchill
London - Fanshawe
Ottawa Centre
Hamilton East - Stoney Creek
Algoma - Manitoulin - Kapuskasing
Elmwood - Transcona

VULNERABLE RIDINGS (12)

Welland
Vancouver Kingsway
Sudbury
Sault Ste. Marie
Halifax
Trinity - Spadina
Edmonton - Strathcona
Thunder Bay - Rainy River
Western Arctic
Thunder Bay - Superior North
Burnaby - Douglas
Outremont

TARGETED RIDINGS (5)

Saskatoon - Rosetown - Biggar
Surrey North
Vancouver Island North
Gatineau
Winnipeg North

POTENTIAL RIDINGS (35)

Nunavut
Kamloops - Thompson - Cariboo
Palliser
Oshawa
Nanaimo - Alberni
Parkdale - High Park
Pontiac
South Shore - St. Margaret's
Beaches - East York
Hull - Aylmer
Pitt Meadows - Maple Ridge - Mission
Essex
Brossard - La Prairie
St. John's South - Mount Pearl
Regina - Qu'Appelle
Fleetwood - Port Kells
Newton - North Delta
Kildonan - St. Paul
Jeanne-Le Ber
Esquimalt - Juan de Fuca
Edmonton East
Davenport
Kenora
Guelph
Portneuf - Jacques-Cartier
Kitchener Centre
Vancouver Centre
Dartmouth - Cole Harbour
York South - Weston
Kitchener - Waterloo
Halifax West
Kingston and the Islands
London North Centre
Vancouver South
Kings - Hants

Rating the BC Liberal leadership contenders

Ipsos-Reid conducted a poll recently for Global Television in British Columbia. It was reported on in the Vancouver Sun here.

In general, it shows that Christy Clark and George Abbott appear to be emerging as the front runners, at least in the opinion of British Columbians. But parties, as the last contested federal Liberal leadership convention demonstrated, can make odd choices.

When asking all British Columbians, only Christy Clark and George Abbott come out with a net positive rating, with the other contenders all getting negative marks. BC Liberal voters are far more enthusiastic about their candidates, and give the best score to Ms. Clark with 60% having a positive impression of her compared to 15% who don't.

Abbott also gets a decent score, with a 38% to 11% split. Kevin Falcon is more divisive, as 33% of BC Liberal voters have a positive opinion of him compared to 24% who don't.

In terms of generating interest in voting for the BC Liberals, 26% of all voters said that Clark would get them most interested in voting for her party. That is boosted to 36% among people who voted Liberal in 2009, but is reduced to 16% among those who voted NDP. Abbott received scores of 12%, 18%, and 10%, respectively, while Falcon got 7%, 14%, and 4%.

But how can we take all of these numbers and rank the leadership contenders? I combined all of the rankings of the candidates for each of the questions in this poll, giving six points to the contender with the best score and one point to the contender with the worst score for each question, portioning out points in descending order in between. As one of the questions included whether a particular leadership candidate would decrease interest in voting for the BC Liberals, and since I included the response of BC New Democratic voters, this ranking should be looked at in terms of each contender's ability to draw votes from all sides of the political spectrum. A leader who does that is best suited to win an election campaign.

The following chart is NOT the result of the Ipsos-Reid poll, but my own ranking based on the results of the poll.It's clear that Abbott and Clark are the two main contenders. While Clark gets good numbers from BC Liberal voters, she tends to do worse among NDP voters. They seem to prefer candidates like Abbott or Mike de Jong. Kevin Falcon, who does well enough among Liberals, does extremely badly among other voters. Unlike Clark or Abbott, he appears to be disliked outside of his own party. Clark is also divisive, but seems better able to draw non-Liberal voters into her tent.

Mike de Jong and Moira Stilwell also seem to benefit from a "none of the above" effect.

Comparing this to Ipsos-Reid's last leadership poll in December shows how much voter negativity Falcon brings to the table. That poll did not include whether a leader would decrease interest in voting for the BC Liberals, and that is primarily why Kevin Falcon has fallen from third to last in terms of suitability.

Now, this is not an indication of who will win the BC Liberal leadership race. Falcon has the support of influential people. But this seems to argue that the BC Liberals will have a better chance of winning the next provincial election with George Abbott or Christy Clark as leader, rather than Kevin Falcon.

Bloc leads in Quebec City, all Conservative seats at risk in Segma poll

A new poll by Segma Recherche for Le Soleil shows that the Bloc Québécois is ahead in the Quebec City region. And thanks to some riding polls, we can say that anywhere from two to five Conservative seats are at risk of going over to the Bloc - that is, unless the Tories fund a new arena for the city.This telephone poll pegs the Bloc at 37% support in the region, up seven points from the 2008 election. The Conservatives are down nine points to 29%, while the Liberals are down one to 15%. The New Democrats are steady at 11%, not the 20% or so that CROP and Léger have found to be the case.

Again, methodology seems to be the difference maker here when it comes to the NDP in Quebec.

The poll shows that the Tories are not even secure in their "fortress" of Quebec City. But, the poll (quite excellently) asks how voting intentions might change if the Conservatives decide to fund the planned hockey arena for the city.

The Conservatives could potentially put all five of their seats in the region at risk if they don't fund it. Fully 23% of Conservative supporters in and around Quebec City would vote for another party if the funding doesn't come. That would drop the Conservatives to only 22%, and likely mean they would be swept from the city.

However, if they fund the arena 24% of people planning to vote for one of the other parties would switch to the Conservatives. Assuming they keep the support they currently have, that would bump them up to 46% in the city and almost certainly mean a sweep of all seven ridings.

The poll's breakdown by riding puts into perspective what is at stake for the Conservatives.These riding polls have a margin of error of 9.8 points, meaning that four of the seven have a statistical tie between the Conservatives and the Bloc Québécois. The other three show a strong Bloc lead.

We'll start with Beauport-Limoilou, held by Conservative MP Sylvie Boucher. She won the riding in 2008 with 37% support to the Bloc's 33%, but this poll puts the Bloc in the lead with 43%. Boucher is 21 points behind at 22%, well outside of the margin of error. That's one seat gain for the Bloc.

In Charlesbourg - Haute-Saint-Charles, held by Conservative MP Daniel Petit, the Conservatives have a narrow seven point lead with 36%, ahead of the Bloc at 29%. The 2008 result was 41% to 29%, so it appears things haven't changed much in the riding. But with the MOE, this seat is potentially on the bubble.

Lévis - Bellechasse was won by Conservative Steven Blaney by a healthy 20 points in 2008, with 46% to the Bloc's 26%. But this poll shows an extremely close race: 33% for the Conservatives and 31% for the Bloc. Again, with the MOE this one is also on the bubble.

Lotbinière - Chutes-de-la-Chaudière, won by Conservative Jacques Gourde by a margin of 47% to 25% over the Bloc, is another close race. The Conservatives still hold the lead here, with 40% to 35%. But with a MOE of almost 10 points, this seat, too, is at risk.

Louis-Hébert, held by Bloc MP Pascal-Pierre Paillé, was won by a margin of eight points in 2008: 36% to the Tories' 28%. But the margin has widened to 39% for the Bloc to 22% for the Conservatives. The Liberals, at 21%, are vying for runner-up in the riding. This makes Louis-Hébert safe for Mr. Paillé.

Québec is also safe. Christiane Gagnon won it for the Bloc in 2008 with 42% to the Conservatives' 26%, but now leads with 43% to the Tories' 24%. That's a margin of 19 points.

Finally, the biggest surprise in this poll comes in Louis-Saint-Laurent. Josée Verner has been one of the best performing Conservatives in the region since 2004. She won in 2008 with 47%, ahead of the Bloc at 27%. But this poll puts the Bloc in the lead with 39%, ahead of Verner who is at 32%. That margin is within the MOE, but it is surprising to see this riding as a close race.

So, from five of seven seats, with these poll numbers the Conservatives would be reduced to three. The Bloc would pick up two and win five, but with the MOE the Bloc has the potential to win all seven seats. The results of the arena-funding poll argue that Conservative chances in the city may lie very heavily upon whether the new colisée gets built or not. This will surely make it more difficult for them to say no.

Per-vote subsidy but a fraction of taxpayer support for political parties

As part of his next campaign platform, Stephen Harper will propose the per-vote subsidy given to each party every year be abolished. As the Conservatives have a better money-raising organization than that of their rivals, the removal of the subsidy will wreak havoc on the finances of the opposition parties and give the Tories a distinct advantage. But all parties, and especially the Conservatives, will still rely mostly on funding from the public trough.

The rest of the article can be read on The Globe and Mail website.

I was thinking about my piece, and conducted a little thought exercise last night. What is the cost of a $400 donation to the Conservative Party?

Well, right off the bat there is the $300 tax credit. If we assume that the donation was given to a local campaign rather than the national headquarters, and then spent in an election, the $400 would be reimbursed to the tune of $240. And in the 2008 election, the Conservatives spent $3.72/vote, so we can say that the $400 donation could be spent to "buy" 108 votes. That costs taxpayers $216 through the per-vote subsidy.

In all, that $400 donation costs the taxpayer $756.

Now, following the same train of thought $400 in per-vote subsidies would cost the taxpayer $856, as all of it comes from the public purse. But that $400 allowance represents the democratic voice of 200 Canadians. The $400 donation, costing taxpayers $756, represents the voice of one.

Food for thought.

Provincial Political Polling Trends

A bit of a dry period, recently. Normally I have more polls that I can write about, but so far this month we've received only a few federal polls and virtually no provincial ones.

So, here's a new chart to add to the pile. I've compiled all of the provincial political polls going back to January 2010. Now, this chart requires a bit of explanation.

What I've done is averaged out all of the polling results each month, with polls that had field dates that straddled two months being part of the average for both those months. Months without any polls are considered to have the same levels of support for each party as the last month in which there was a poll. This gives us some straight lines that only shift once new polls appear.

The charts will be updated on a monthly basis.

The legend for this chart is at the bottom of this post.

BRITISH COLUMBIA
Orange: BC New Democrats
Red: BC Liberals
Green: BC Greens
Blue: BC Conservatives

ALBERTA
Blue: Progressive Conservatives
Green: Wildrose Alliance
Red: Liberals
Orange: New Democrats

SASKATCHEWAN
Dark Green: Saskatchewan Party
Orange: New Democrats
Red: Liberals
Light Green: Greens

MANITOBA, ONTARIO, NEW BRUNSWICK, NOVA SCOTIA, PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
Blue: Progressive Conservatives
Orange: New Democrats
Red: Liberals
Green: Greens

QUEBEC
Dark Blue: Parti Québécois
Red: Liberals
Light Blue: Action Démocratique du Québec
Orange: Québec Solidaire
Green: Greens

NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADOR
Blue: Progressive Conservatives
Orange: New Democrats
Red: Liberals

Bloc aims for high-water mark in Quebec

Si la tendance se maintient, the Bloc Québécois will win a majority of Quebec seats in the next election for the seventh consecutive time. The next election will also be Gilles Duceppe’s sixth as head of the party, making him the undisputed greybeard of the five federal leaders.

The rest of the article can be read on The Globe and Mail website. It's my second in a series of five covering each of the main federal parties.

Here are the full listings of the ridings and their classification for the Bloc Québécois.

FORTRESS RIDINGS (25)

Montcalm
La Pointe-de-l'Île
Rivière-du-Nord
Repentigny
Bas-Richelieu - Nicolet - Bécancour
Terrebonne - Blainville
Joliette
Verchères - Les Patriotes
Rosemont - La Petite-Patrie
Chambly - Borduas
Laurier - Sainte-Marie
Saint-Jean
Sherbrooke
Beauharnois - Salaberry
Argenteuil - Papineau - Mirabel
Hochelaga
Abitibi - Témiscamingue
Châteauguay - Saint-Constant
Saint-Hyacinthe - Bagot
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles
Rimouski-Neigette - Témiscouata - Les Basques
Berthier - Maskinongé
Longueuil - Pierre-Boucher
Saint-Bruno - Saint-Hubert
Manicouagan

SECURE RIDINGS (18)

Montmorency - Charlevoix - Haute-Côte-Nord
Shefford
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin
Trois-Rivières
Laurentides - Labelle
Saint-Maurice - Champlain
Compton - Stanstead
Vaudreuil - Soulanges
Richmond - Arthabaska
Québec
Drummond
Gaspésie - Îles-de-la-Madeleine
Laval
Alfred-Pellan
Abitibi - Baie-James - Nunavik - Eeyou
Saint-Lambert
Louis-Hébert
Chicoutimi - Le Fjord

VULNERABLE RIDINGS (5)

Haute-Gaspésie - La Mitis - Matane - Matapédia
Ahuntsic
Gatineau
Brome - Missisquoi
Jeanne - Le Ber

TARGETED RIDINGS (6)

Brossard - La Prairie
Portneuf - Jacques-Cartier
Roberval - Lac-Saint-Jean
Beauport - Limoilou
Papineau
Montmagny - L'Islet - Kamouraska - Rivière-du-Loup

POTENTIAL RIDINGS (10)

Pontiac
Charlesbourg - Haute-Saint-Charles
Jonquière - Alma
Hull - Aylmer
Honoré-Mercier
LaSalle - Émard
Laval - Les Îles
Mégantic - L'Érable
Lévis - Bellechasse
Louis-Saint-Laurent

UNASSAILABLE (11)

Bourassa
Lotbinière - Chutes-de-la-Chaudiére
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce - Lachine
Beauce
Saint-Léonard - Saint-Michel
Outremont
Saint-Laurent - Cartierville
Pierrefonds - Dollard
Westmount - Ville-Marie
Lac-Saint-Louis
Mount Royal

Tories make gains among non-francophones in new Léger poll

Léger Marketing conducted its monthly polling at the provincial and federal levels in Quebec for Le Devoir and The Gazette earlier this week. There hasn't been much movement at the federal level, but the provincial Liberals have sunk.Compared to Léger's last poll in early December, the Bloc Québécois has gained two points and now leads with 36%. That is actually a little lower than the other pollsters have reported, which can probably be explained by the high New Democratic result: 19%, though that is two points down from a month ago. Léger continues to poll well for the NDP, but it is difficult to determine where exactly support for Jack Layton's party stands.

The Liberals are also at 19%, and have also lost two points. The Conservatives are down two as well, to 17%, while the Greens are up one to 6%.

The Bloc has gained ground among francophones, and leads among this linguistic group with 44% (+2). The NDP follows with 19% (-3), while the Conservatives have also dropped three points, to 15%. The Liberals are steady at 14%. Being so low among francophones is very bad news for the Liberals, and the NDP continues to impress.

Among non-francophones, the Liberals have dropped six points but still lead with 41%. A bit of good news for Larry Smith's chances in Lac-Saint-Louis is that the Conservatives have gained four points among non-francophones, and is now second with 26%. Things could get interesting on the West Island (for once). The NDP is down one to 16%, while the Bloc is down three points to 3%.

It would require more sampling, but it would be interesting if the "non-francophones" were broken down by whether they speak English or not.

In the Montreal region, the Bloc is steady with 31%, followed by the Liberals at 27% (-1). The Conservatives, despite their gain among anglophones, are down one point around the metropolis and are at 15%. The NDP has dropped four to 16%.

The Conservatives have made a big gain around the provincial capital, jumping 10 points to 35%. The Bloc has lost eight points and trails with 28%, while the NDP is down one to 21% - a very high result. The Liberals are completely out of it here, down two points to 10%.

Finally, in the rest of Quebec the Bloc dominates and has gained six points. They now lead with 44%. The NDP is second with 20% (-1), while the Conservatives are third with 14% (-6). The Liberals are down two to 12%.

What this means is that the Liberals appear to be losing ground everywhere in Quebec, and will only have some good performances in the non-francophone parts of Montreal. But with the Conservatives performing well, they could make some noise in that reddest of all regions. They will also do well in Quebec City, but it appears that the fight in francophone Quebec could increasingly be between the Bloc and the NDP, though the Bloc still has a huge advantage.

The Bloc Québécois would win 51 seats with these results, unchanged from Léger's last poll. The Liberals drop one to 14 seats, the Conservatives gain one and would win eight seats, while the NDP is unchanged at two seats.

But Quebecers aren't too excited about going to the polls. Only 37% want an election to take place in 2011, compared to 46% who don't. This is probably because 47% of Quebecers believe the result will be a Conservative government (11% see a majority, 36% see a minority). Still, 27% think it will be a Liberal government (6% majority, 21% minority), and a few wild-eyed respondents thought it would be a New Democratic government.

Now on to the provincial scene. Here, the two main parties have lost a little ground but the Parti Québécois has increased its lead by three points.Since that last poll in December, the Parti Québécois has lost one point but still leads with 36%. The Liberals (PLQ) are down four points to 29%, while the Action Démocratique du Québec has gained three points, and are third with 14%.

We are starting to see the ADQ get back to its traditional levels of support after the turmoil that took place after Mario Dumont's departure.

Québec Solidaire is up two points to 10%, while the Greens (PVQ) are up one to 7%.

Among francophones, the PQ leads with 43% (unchanged). The PLQ is up one to 21%, while the ADQ is down two points to 15%.

The Liberals are still doing very well among non-francophones, leading with 64% (-2). The PVQ is second with 12% (unchanged), while the ADQ has gained two points and stands at 10%.

The PLQ uses this lead among non-francophones to have the edge in the Montreal region. They are ahead with 38% (+3), though the PQ is not far behind at 34% (+2). The Greens are running third with 9%, unchanged from December. Troublesome for Québec Solidaire is that they have dropped three points to 7% on and around the island.

In Quebec City, the ADQ is up 11 points to 39%, mimicking the Conservative gain in the region. The PQ is down nine points to 28%, while the Liberals are down one to 19%.

And in the rest of the province, the Parti Québécois leads with 39%, down one point. The Liberals have dropped five to 21%, while the ADQ is down one to 16%. QS is doing well outside of the two main cities, at 13% (+4).

With this poll, the Parti Québécois would win 74 seats, two more than the projection for Léger's last poll. The Liberals would win 37 seats and the ADQ 12, both parties surrendering one to the PQ. Québec Solidaire would win two seats, unchanged.

The Liberals currently have 65 MNAs, the Parti Québécois 52, the ADQ four, and Québec Solidaire one. There are also three independents.

When it comes to who would make the best Premier, Pauline Marois is on top with 17% (which becomes 29% when portioning out the undecideds). Jean Charest and Gérard Deltell are second with 15% (25%), while Amir Khadir of QS punches above his weight with 11% (19%). Claude Sabourin, the new leader of the Greens, clocks in at 1%.

So, more or less the status quo in Quebec. Federally, the Bloc still leads, the Tories and Liberals are still weak, and the confusion over where the NDP really is continues. Provincially, the PQ still leads, the Liberals are still weak, the ADQ is back up to the mid-teens, and QS and the PVQ continue to over-achieve.

Conservatives gain in Harris-Decima poll

The newest poll from Harris-Decima shows that the Conservatives have pulled out of the close race that the polling firm had found in its late-2010 polling. But the party is still not in a position to make any gains.Since Harris-Decima's last poll taken in December, the Conservatives have gained five points and now lead with 36%. The Liberals have dropped only one point to 28%, while the New Democrats are steady at 15%.

The Bloc Québécois and Greens have both dropped two points to 9% nationally in this telephone poll, which has a margin of error of +/- 2.2.

That is a big gain for the Tories, and puts them generally where Angus-Reid and EKOS have recently pegged them. This poll from Harris-Decima is also very close to my own current projections.

In fact, the only outlier result to be found in this poll, if an outlier can be defined as a result with a difference from my own projection greater than the poll's MOE, is in British Columbia. There, the Conservatives lead with 34% (+2 from the last poll), while the Liberals are close behind at 32% (+11). That Liberal result is about three points higher than the poll's MOE should allow. The NDP is steady at 24%, while the Greens are down 12 points to 9%.

In Ontario, the Conservatives have gained three points and lead with 39%, followed by the Liberals at 34% (-2). The NDP is up one to 15%, while the Greens are down two to 10%.

The Bloc has dropped four points in Quebec but still leads with 40%. The Liberals follow with 20% (-3), while the Conservatives are up seven to 18% and the NDP is up three to 13%. That about lines up with what the other pollsters have found this month.

The Liberals are leading in Atlantic Canada with 42%, with the Conservatives not far behind at 35%.

In Alberta, the Tories are up 14 points to 61%, while the Liberals and NDP sink six and eight points to 18% and 6%, respectively. The Greens are at 12% here.

In the Prairies, the Conservatives lead with 49%. The NDP is in second with 20%, while the Liberals have dropped six points to 19%.

With these poll results, the Conservatives would win 18 seats in British Columbia, 27 in Alberta, 22 in the Prairies, 54 in Ontario, seven in Quebec, and nine in Atlantic Canada for a total of 138 seats. That is 13 more than my projection for Harris-Decima's last poll, thanks to a gain of seven seats in Ontario.

The Liberals would win 12 seats in British Columbia, one in Alberta, three in the Prairies, 40 in Ontario, 14 in Quebec, and 22 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 94 seats, seven fewer than last time. The drop came primarily in Ontario, where the Liberals lost eight seats (but they made small gains elsewhere).

The Bloc would win 53 seats in Quebec, three fewer than the last projection.

The New Democrats would win six seats in British Columbia, none in Alberta, three in the Prairies, 12 in Ontario, one in Quebec, and one in Atlantic Canada for a total of 23, two fewer than last time. The largest change is in British Columbia, where the NDP drops two seats.

The Greens win no seats, compared to one that was projected from Harris-Decima's last poll.

Nothing really new in this poll, though it does give the Tories a bit of a bigger lead than either Angus-Reid or EKOS Research found to be the case. However, the difference is within the margin of error. The poll should embolden no one, least of all the New Democrats, who have been stumbling in the polls lately.

Polls show Sisyphean task ahead for Harper and Ignatieff

With election rumours swirling, the war of words has yet to have a profound impact on the voting intentions of Canadians. Though their rhetoric is heating up, neither Stephen Harper nor Michael Ignatieff appear capable of making any significant gains against each other.

The rest of the article can be read on The Globe and Mail website.

I suggest you check it out if you aren't interested in just the numbers in this projection update, which I will describe here.Nationally, the Conservatives have gained 0.6 points and lead with 35.4%. The Liberals are down 0.2 points to 29% while the New Democrats are down 0.1 points to 15.7%. The Bloc Québécois is up 0.1 points to 10.3% nationally, and the Greens are down 0.5 points to 8.2%.

In terms of total seats, the Conservatives are down one to 135, the Liberals are up two to 98, the NDP is down one to 23, and the Bloc is steady at 52 seats.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives are up 2.2 points to 39.2% and have gained one seat. The NDP is down 0.7 points to 24.2% and have lost one seat. The Liberals are down 0.9 points to 22.9%, while the Greens are down 0.6 points to 11.3%. The Conservatives are projected to win 22 seats, the Liberals eight, and the NDP six.

In Alberta, the Conservatives are up 4.1 points to 60.7%. The Liberals are down 3.2 points to 18%, the NDP is down 0.5 points to 10.1%, and the Greens are down 0.4 points to 8.7%. The Conservatives are projected to win 27 seats and the Liberals one, unchanged from the December 20th projection.

In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Conservatives are down 2.3 points to 44.7% while the Liberals are up 0.8 points to 24%. The NDP is also up, 1.5 points to 22.4%. The Greens are steady at 7.2%. The Conservatives are projected to win 20 seats (-1), the Liberals five (unchanged), and the NDP three (+1).

In Ontario, both the Conservatives and Liberals have gained 0.3 points and now stand at 38.3% and 36%, respectively. The NDP is down 0.4 points to 15.3% and the Greens are down 0.2 points to 9.3%. The Conservatives are projected to win 50 seats (unchanged), while the Liberals would win 45 (+1) and the NDP 11 (-1).

The Bloc Québécois has gained 0.9 points in Quebec and leads with 40.2%. The Liberals are down 0.3 points to 22.4% while the Conservatives are up 0.5 points to 17.7%. The NDP is down 0.8 points to 12.4%, and the Greens are down 0.4 points to 6.1%. Unchanged from the last projection, the Bloc would win 52 seats, the Liberals 15, the Conservatives seven, and the NDP one.

Finally, in Atlantic Canada the Liberals are up 0.5 points to 41.4%. The Conservatives are down 1.7 points to 31.8%, and the NDP is unchanged at 18.6%. The Greens have dropped 0.9 points to 5.1%. The Liberals would win 22 seats (+1), the Conservatives eight (-1), and the NDP two (unchanged).

In terms of net gains and losses in the six regions, the Liberals come out on the bottom with a drop of 2.8 points. But most of that was in Alberta, and the party did gain two seats overall, thanks to better performances in Ontario and Atlantic Canada.

The Greens were second worst, with a net loss of 2.5 points.

Middle-of-the-road honours goes to the NDP, with a net loss of 0.9 points. Their only gain was in the Prairies, which isn't a vital region for them.

Second place goes to the Bloc, with a gain of 0.9 points in Quebec.

This projection's winner is the Conservative Party, with a net gin of 3.1 points. But most of that was in British Columbia and Alberta and the party did lose one seat overall.

Tories up, NDP down in new EKOS poll

The latest poll from EKOS tells a story similar to the one released by Angus-Reid two days ago. The Conservatives hold the lead, but it isn't the wide lead that seemed to have been forming in December.Of course, EKOS never found that the Tories were roaring ahead. So the fact that the Conservatives have gained 2.5 points from EKOS's last poll is of note. They now lead with 34.5%, ahead of the Liberals at 27.3% (+0.8).

The smaller parties take a step backwards, as the New Democrats are down 2.3 points to 14.8% and the Greens are down 0.6 points to 10.3%. The Bloc Québécois is also down a little.

The EKOS poll had a slew of other questions included, and I'll get to them soon. But first, the regional results.

In Ontario, both the Liberals and Conservatives have gained about two points. The Conservatives lead with 36.7% but the Liberals aren't far behind at 34.5%. The NDP is down three points to 14.4%, while the Greens are down one to 11.3%. The Liberals lead in both Ottawa and Toronto with about 39% support, while the Conservatives trail with 34.8% in both cities.

The Bloc has dropped two points to 39.7%, but still lead the Liberals by a wide margin. They're up three points to 20.7%, while the Conservatives are up one to 18.8%. The NDP has dropped two points to 10%. The Bloc leads in Montreal with 40.5% to the Liberals' 22%. But wouldn't it be more interesting if EKOS released the data from Quebec City?

In British Columbia, there has been very little movement. The Conservatives are up two to 37.8%, while the NDP is steady at 23.1%. The Liberals are up one to 21.4%, while the Greens are down two to 14.1%. The Conservatives are well ahead in Vancouver with 41.9%, followed by the Liberals at 24%.

The race has narrowed in Atlantic Canada, as the Liberals drop five to 32% and the Conservatives drop two to 31.8%. The NDP is miraculously back in it with a four point gain. They are now at 26.2%.

Big changes in Alberta, where the Tories are up 15 points to 60.6%. The Liberals are down nine to 17.2% while the NDP is down seven to 8.3%. The source of the gain seems to be in Calgary, as the Conservatives now lead there with 76.2%. The Liberals are second (barely), at 11.7% in the city. But, again, wouldn't it be more interesting if EKOS released the data from Edmonton?

In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Conservatives are down six points to 38%, followed closely by the Liberals at 32% (+9). The NDP is down nine points to 15.7%. I say we chalk up that Liberal bounce to the small sample size.

With the results of this poll, the Conservatives would win 22 seats in British Columbia, 27 in Alberta, 19 in the Prairies, 49 in Ontario, eight in Quebec, and 10 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 136.

The Liberals would win eight seats in British Columbia, one in Alberta, seven in the Prairies, 44 in Ontario, 14 in Quebec, and 17 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 93.

The Bloc would win 52 seats in Quebec.

The New Democrats would win six seats in British Columbia, none in Alberta, two in the Prairies, 13 in Ontario, one in Quebec, and five in Atlantic Canada for a total of 27.

Rather usual results, actually.

Now to the interesting tidbits in this poll. First off, Canadians are split as to whether they would prefer a Liberal or Conservative government. The Conservatives get the edge, however, as 39% (27% want a majority and 12% want a minority) would prefer a Tory government of some kind. The Liberals aren't far behind, with 37% wanting them to be in power (20% majority and 17% minority).

As to what is most likely to happen, 39% think the next government will be a Conservative minority, 21% think it will be a Liberal minority (optimistic bunch!), 15% think it will be a Conservative majority, and 10% think it will be a Liberal majority.

Considering that the greatest number of Canadians think we'll get the same result as what we have now, it's no wonder that 40% prefer that the election take place sometime in 2012. But 17% want it to take place now and another 15% think it should take place within the next four months. Another 21% want it take place sometime in the summer or fall of 2011.

If we break it down by party, we get an indication of their supporters' enthusiasm. The Bloc's voters seem to be the most keen to go, as 47% want the next election to take place now or within the next four months.

Surprisingly, Liberal supporters are the next most enthusiastic group, as 39% want the election to take place soon. The NDP's voters are at about the same level, at 38%.

Conservatives, however, seem happy with the way things are. Only 19% want an election to take place soon. Perhaps they think another election would just be a waste of time, or perhaps they sense an element of risk.

Another interesting question was on the subject of what motivates a voter into making their political choices. A party's platform appears to be the most important, as 44% of respondents chose it as their deciding factor. Another 19% think the leader is most important, while 16% make their decision based on the local candidate.

There were no significant variations by region or party on this issue.

Finally, EKOS also asked whether people would prefer a Conservative government or a coalition government. Note: EKOS did not say that the Tory government would be a majority (which is what I read somewhere), but did stipulate that the coalition would be between the Liberals and the New Democrats and be led by Michael Ignatieff.

Opinion is split: 40% said they wanted a Conservative government while 39% said they wanted a coalition government. Unsurprisingly, the Tories won out in British Columbia, Alberta, and the Prairies, while the coalition was on top in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada.

It doesn't appear that the coalition is the scary idea the Conservatives are hoping it is. The question said nothing about voting choices, but rather if you were "forced to choose". Nevertheless, while it isn't a bogeyman, the idea of a coalition benefits the Tories. They picked up about five points on the question, while the Liberals and New Democrats lost three. And what's more, if the Conservatives get 40% but the Liberals and New Democrats split the other 39%, that's a ticket to a Tory majority.

It's a high risk game, however. If the Tories campaign strongly on the coalition, it will give the other parties the legitimacy to form one after the election if the numbers work out in their favour. Perhaps Stephen Harper realizes that, come what may, this will probably be his last campaign as leader of the Conservative Party. If he wins his majority, one wonders whether he would want to lead the party through another election in 2015 or 2016. If he doesn't, and is replaced by a stable coalition, he may not want to be opposition leader until then.

If it's an all or nothing gamble, it seems like the right time to do it.

There will be a projection update on Monday. So check The Globe and Mail website on Monday morning, or buy a copy of their print edition to see a cliff notes version of the latest projection. I will post later in the day on Monday or Tuesday with the details of the update. Have a great weekend!

Tories slip in new Angus-Reid poll

Angus-Reid is first out of the gate and has the distinction of being the first polling firm to report in 2011. Their last poll, taken in early December, virtually mirrored the 2008 electoral result. But this poll indicates that the Conservatives may have lost some ground over the holidays.Compared to that last poll, the Conservatives are down four points to 34%, while the Liberals have gained two points and trail with 28%.

The New Democrats are down one point to 17%, while the Bloc Québécois and Greens have picked up a point apiece and stand at 11% and 8% respectively in this internet poll.

The Conservatives hold a strong lead among men (38% to the Liberals' 29%) and among voters aged 55 or older (42% to 25%). But the Liberals are running neck-and-neck with the Tories among 35-54 year olds and among women (29% CPC to 27% LPC). And the Liberals lead in the 18-34 cohort that has more trouble getting to the ballot box on voting day.

Regionally, the Conservatives have dropped six points in Ontario and now lead with 38%, followed closely by the Liberals at 36% (+5). The NDP is steady at 16% while the Greens are up two to 10%. It's a much closer race in the province than Angus-Reid indicated in December.

In Quebec, the Bloc has gained four points and dominates with 43%. The Liberals have pulled away from the federalist pack with a three point gain, running second with 22%. The NDP is down two points to 15% while the Conservatives have dropped five points to only 13% in Quebec. That is very problematic for them.

The Conservatives are up three points in British Columbia, however, and lead with 42%. The New Democrats follow with 25% (-5), while the Liberals are down four points to 21%. The Greens, at 11%, have gained seven points.

In the smaller-sample regions, we get some odd results due to the higher margin of error. For example, in Atlantic Canada the "Other" parties have stormed ahead of the New Democrats to 16% support, trailing the Conservatives at 23% (-18) and the Liberals at 49% (+11). The NDP is down seven points to 10%. But before you disregard this poll entirely, consider that these 16 "other" points only represent about 1.1 points nationally.

In Alberta, the Conservatives have jumped 15 points to 65%, while the NDP trails with 12% and the Liberals with 11%, down 11 points.

In the Prairies, the Conservatives are up seven to 44%, while the NDP has come out of nowhere with a 14 point gain. They stand at 36%, ahead of the Liberals (who are down nine) to 15%.

These smaller regional results leave a lot to be desired. But we can certainly take something from the polling data in the three largest provinces.

The Conservatives would win 22 seats in British Columbia with this poll, as well as 28 in Alberta, 22 in the Prairies, 49 in Ontario, four in Quebec, and five in Atlantic Canada for a total of 131. That's a drop of 18 seats from the projection for Angus-Reid's last poll.

The Liberals would win seven seats in British Columbia, none in Alberta, one in the Prairies, 45 in Ontario, 15 in Quebec, and 27 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 97, a gain of 20 seats from last time.

The Bloc Québécois would win 55 seats in Quebec, an increase of two.

The New Democrats would win seven seats in British Columbia, none in Alberta, five in the Prairies, 12 in Ontario, one in Quebec, and none in Atlantic Canada for a total of 25, down four from last time.

The poll also took a look at the three federal leaders. Stephen Harper has an approval rating of 26% and a disapproval rating of 46%, a margin that has grown by one point since December.

Michael Ignatieff has an approval rating of only 12% and a disapproval rating of 49%, four points worse than December.

Jack Layton is the only leader whose numbers have improved. The gap between his approval and disapproval ratings has shrunk by four points, to 26% approving and 31% disapproving.

If we took out the "not sures", that'd give us an approval rating of 46% for Layton, 36% for Harper, and 20% for poor Michael Ignatieff.

The first poll of the year is not without its issues, but it seems to indicate that the big gap that was forming between the Conservatives and the Liberals in December has been reduced back to what we've seen for the last year or so. Ho-hum.

With bar set low, Greens have decent shot at victory

Whenever it takes place, the next election will be Elizabeth May’s second as Green Party Leader. After increasing her party’s support and getting herself into the nationally televised debates in 2008, her supporters will expect nothing less than the party’s first seat victory when Canadians are next asked to cast their ballots.

The rest of the article can be read on The Globe and Mail website.

This is the first of five pieces on each of the parties, which will determine their floor and ceiling in terms of seats. Ridings will be classified in five categories: fortress, secure, vulnerable, targeted, and potential.

Fortress ridings are those which are extremely unlikely to be lost by the party in the next election. Secure ridings are those which are unlikely to be lost, but which are within the greatest margin that was overcome in 2008. Vulnerable ridings are those which, according to current projections and special circumstances (i.e., Larry Smith in Lac-Saint-Louis), are at play. Targeted ridings are those that are held by other parties and are at play, while potential ridings are those that are within the margin that was overcome in Egmont in 2008.

Starting with the Greens means there are no fortress, secure, or vulnerable ridings. I've identified Saanich - Gulf Islands as the only riding fitting in the "targeted" category, while Bruce - Grey - Owen Sound, Guelph, and Vancouver Centre are in the "potential" category. This gives the Greens a ceiling of four seats.

As there won't be room to list all of the ridings in each category in my Globe pieces for the other parties, I will do so here.

I expect to post about yesterday's Angus-Reid poll later this afternoon.

December Best and Worst Case Scenarios

With January yet to provide us with a new poll (though that is likely to change tomorrow), what better time to take a last look at December through its best and worst case scenarios for each of the three main federal parties?

These best and worst case scenarios calculate each party's best and worst projection results in each region.

For example, if the Conservatives had their best result in the western provinces in an Angus-Reid poll, their best result in Ontario in a Nanos poll, their best result in Quebec in a Léger poll, and their best result in Atlantic Canada in an EKOS poll, I would take each of these bests and combine them. And the same goes for a worst case scenario.

In other words, these projections are the best and worst possible results each party could have gotten had an election taken place last month, based on the available polling data.

These best and worst case scenarios are in terms of total seats only, and not necessarily about how a party would fit in with the others in Parliament.

Let's start, as always, with the New Democrats. They did not have a stellar month, and this is reflected in their best case scenario. The party would win 24.1% of the vote, a high watermark for them, but would only win 40 seats. The Conservatives would win 139, the Liberals 80, and the Bloc Quebecois 49. In other words, more or less exactly what the situation in the House of Commons is right now.

The NDP would win 11 seats in British Columbia, one in Alberta, four in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, 17 in Ontario, two in Quebec, and five in Atlantic Canada. But with the jump in votes cast, the party would still only be making a tiny seat gain.

Their worst case scenario, however, is disastrous. With only 12.4% of the vote, the NDP would win only 15 seats, barely being recognized as an official party. The Conservatives would win 147 seats, the Liberals 94, and the Bloc Quebecois 52. Safe to say that Jack Layton would find himself out of a job.

The NDP would win two seats in British Columbia, none in Alberta, two in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, 11 in Ontario, none in Quebec, and none in Atlantic Canada.

This gives the NDP a range of between 12.4% and 24.1% support and 15 to 40 seats. It is worse than November's range of between 13.9% and 24.1% of the vote and 22 and 50 seats. If we take the midway point in these ranges, we get 19% and 36 seats for November compared to 18.3% and 28 seats for December. So a step backwards.

For the Liberals, it was a relatively stable month. Their best case scenario would give them 32.4% of the vote and 110 seats, but not enough to propel them into a minority government. The Conservatives would win 129 seats, the Bloc Quebecois 51, and the NDP 18. This is an especially troublesome outcome as the combination of the Liberals and NDP would still be less than the Tory total.

The Liberals would win nine seats in British Columbia, two in Alberta, six in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, 48 in Ontario, 16 in Quebec, and 27 in Atlantic Canada.

Their worst case scenario would make Stéphane Dion look like a political genius. With only 23.9% support, the Liberals would eke out 68 seats, almost handing the Official Opposition role to the Bloc Quebecois. The Conservatives would win a small majority with 158 seats, while the Bloc would win 52 and the NDP 30.

The Liberals would win seven seats in British Columbia, none in Alberta, one in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, 30 in Ontario, 12 in Quebec, and 16 in Atlantic Canada. It would be even worse than 2008.

The Liberal range has changed only slightly from November. It has improved in popular support, going from 23.2% to 31.3% in November to 23.9% to 32.4% in December. But in terms of seats it has worsened, going from 73 to 110 seats in November to 68 to 110 seats in December. It appears that, for whatever reason, 110 seats is the Liberal ceiling for the time being. For an average result, November had the Liberals at 27.3% of the vote and 92 seats, compared to December's 28.2% and 89 seats.

Finally, the Conservatives. December was a good month for them. So good, in fact, that it puts a majority within sight. With 41.8% of the vote, the Conservatives would win 162 seats and a majority government. The Liberals would be reduced to 72 seats and the NDP to 21, while the Bloc would increase its seat totals to 52.

The Conservatives would win 25 seats in British Columbia, 28 in Alberta, 23 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, 64 in Ontario, nine in Quebec, and 12 in Atlantic Canada. A majority without Quebec - I didn't think it was possible.

On the flip side, the Conservatives could be manhandled. But they would still come out on top, at least in terms of seats. With 30.6% support, the Conservatives would win 117 seats. The Liberals would win 102, the NDP 33, and the Bloc Quebecois 56. It would not be enough to hold on to the reins of government.

In this scenario the Conservatives win 18 seats in British Columbia, 25 in Alberta, 20 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, 46 in Ontario, three in Quebec, and four in Atlantic Canada.

For December, this puts the Tory range at between 30.6% and 41.8% of the vote. The seat range is between 117 and 162 seats, far better in both cases than November's 29.2% to 38.4% and 107 seats to 147 seats. While November's average was 33.8% and 127 seats, December's was 36.2% and 140 seats.

For the opposition, these are troubling results. The NDP can only make marginal gains or risk losing everything, while the Liberals could do worse than 2008 or still be behind the Conservatives if everything goes right. And a Conservative majority could also be possible.

For the Tories it is high risk, high reward. They could be ousted by a coalition, or they could form a majority. Both Jack Layton and Michael Ignatieff have shown, up to this point, that they aren't prepared to roll the dice with so much at stake. But is Stephen Harper a gambling man?

Political deep freeze endures – even in hypothetical fantasyland

A disunited left and an uninspiring right have conspired to elect three successive minority governments in Canada, with listless polls showing voters on track to install a fourth in 2011 or 2012. While the Conservatives have no competitors for support on the right, the existence of four parties to the left of the Tories has many musing on the possibility of various hypothetical scenarios. But estimations of what electoral results these scenarios would yield demonstrate it will take more than a merger or two to get Canada out of its political logjam.

The rest of the article can be read on The Globe and Mail website.

Regular readers might consider the premise of the article familiar. That's because it is. That blog post, however, was about the 2008 election and how other scenarios might have played out. This article is about the next election, using my current projections and then adjusting them.

For those interested, here is the regional breakdown for each scenario (WC = Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and the North):

No Green Party

Conservatives: 18 BC, 48 WC, 46 ON, 8 QC, 8 AT
Liberals: 7 BC, 4 WC, 43 ON, 13 QC, 21 AT
New Democrats: 11 BC, 7 WC, 17 ON, 1 QC, 3 AT
Bloc Québécois: 52 QC
Other: 1 QC

United Federalist Left

Conservatives: 17 BC, 45 WC, 42 ON, 6 QC, 11 AT
United Left: 19 BC, 14 WC, 64 ON, 13 QC, 20 AT
Bloc Québécois: 56 QC
Other: 1 AT

Liberal/NDP Merger

Conservatives: 22 BC, 47 WC, 45 ON, 6 QC, 7 AT
Liberal Democrats: 14 BC, 12 WC, 61 ON, 14 QC, 24 AT
Bloc Québécois: 55 QC
Other: 1 AT

December Averages

Time to look at December's polling. Seven national polls were released during this month (sameas last month), totaling about 11,460 interviews. Here are the results we get at the national level, with the difference from last month's average in brackets.

Conservatives - 35.3% (+2.0)
Liberals - 27.8% (-0.4)
New Democrats - 16.2% (-1.0)
Bloc Québécois - 10.2% (+0.6)
Greens - 8.8% (-0.8)
Others - 1.7% (-0.7)

The Tories made a big jump in December, gaining two points. It's the highest they've been since December 2009, when they were polling slightly over 36%. Perhaps the Tories get a December boost. The Liberals, on the other hand, have dropped 0.8 points over the last two months. The New Democrats have also dropped, while at 8.8% the Greens are at their worst since, coincidentally, December 2009.

The seat projection for these results is as follows, with the difference from last month in brackets:

Conservatives - 140 (+12)
Liberals - 90 (-3)
Bloc Québécois - 53 (unchanged)
New Democrats - 25 (-9)
Greens - 0 (unchanged)

A big jump for the Conservatives compared to November, coming mostly at the expense of the listless NDP. The Liberals aren't exactly barn-burners either, but seem to have been stuck in the 90 seat range for months.The regional results, with difference from last month in brackets:

BRITISH COLUMBIA (7 polls - about 1,140 people)

Conservatives - 39.6% (+7.8)
New Democrats - 23.6% (-4.1)
Liberals - 23.4% (-0.3)
Greens - 11.3% (-2.6)
Others - 2.1%

If you're looking for an explanation for the Conservative gain in December, look no further than in British Columbia. That's a massive increase in support. The NDP drop comes out of nowhere, as the party had been stable in November. The Greens should be worried, as they've dropped almost four points in two months in the crucial province. The Conservatives would win 22 seats (+6 from November), while the Liberals would win eight (-1) and the NDP six (-5).

ALBERTA (6 polls - about 840 people)

Conservatives - 54.4% (-3.7)
Liberals - 20.6% (+0.2)
Greens - 11.7% (+2.8)
New Democrats - 10.8% (+1.0)
Others - 2.5%

The gain in BC is slightly offside by the Conservative slip in Alberta. They still dominate the province, though. But it is remarkable that the Liberals have been holding at over 20%. The Greens, meanwhile, have gained more than what they've lost in the province from September to November, and are third in Alberta. Unchanged from November, the Conservatives would win 27 seats and the Liberals one.

SASKATCHEWAN & MANITOBA (7 polls - about 1,590 people)

Conservatives - 47.9% (+5.1)
Liberals - 23.4% (+1.1)
New Democrats - 21.2% (-2.5)
Greens - 6.2% (-3.2)
Others - 1.3%

The Conservatives rebound after a big drop in November, while the Liberals are up a little. The NDP has slipped back to third in the region while the Greens are back down. The Conservatives would win 21 seats (+1), the Liberals four (unchanged), and the NDP three (-1).

ONTARIO (7 polls - about 3,780 people)

Conservatives - 38.4% (+1.6)
Liberals - 33.4% (-1.1)
New Democrats - 16.7% (-0.2)
Greens - 9.9% (+0.1)
Others - 1.6%

Before anyone gets too excited about the Conservative gain, this just puts the party back to where they were in October. The Liberals have lost 1.1 points for the third consecutive month, which is a bit of bad news for them. The Conservatives would win 53 seats (+4), the Liberals would win 40 (-3), and the New Democrats 13 (-1).

QUEBEC (9 polls - about 4,870 people)

Bloc Québécois - 39.8% (+1.4)
Liberals - 20.9% (-1.7)
Conservatives - 17.7% (+1.3)
New Democrats - 14.0% (+0.7)
Greens - 5.9% (-1.6)
Others - 1.7%

This is the best Bloc result since July, while the Liberals have lost 3.2 points since September. The Conservatives are up for the second straight month, as is the NDP. The Bloc would win 53 seats (unchanged), the Liberals 14 (-1), the Conservatives seven (+1), and the NDP one (unchanged).

ATLANTIC CANADA (7 polls - about 880 people)

Liberals - 41.2% (+5.4)
Conservatives - 35.3% (+4.8)
New Democrats - 18.3% (-4.6)
Greens - 4.8% (-4.8)
Others - 0.4%

A big jump for the Conservatives, part of the two-ends-of-the-country jump I mentioned in The Hill Times last month. The Liberals are up even more in the region, the highest they've been since August. With gains like these, someone has to suffer. Both the NDP and the Greens are down almost five points. The Liberals would win 21 seats (+2), the Conservatives nine (unchanged), and the NDP two (-2).In terms of net gains and losses in the six regions, the New Democrats performed worst with a net loss of 9.7 points. Most came in Atlantic Canada and British Columbia, two regions the party has always counted on for seats. The gain in Quebec, however, is positive.

Next worst were the Greens, with a net loss of 9.3 points. They were stable in Ontario, however, which is one of the provinces they will focus on.

Middle-of-the-road goes to the Bloc, which had a net gain of 1.4 points.

Runner-up is the Liberal Party, with a net gain of 3.6 points. Most of that was in Atlantic Canada and the three Prairie provinces. Losses in Ontario and Quebec are far more worrisome.

And December's winner is the Conservative Party, with a massive net gain of 16.9 points. They jumped more than four points in Atlantic Canada, the Prairies, and British Columbia, and had modest gains in Quebec and Ontario. Dropping in Alberta is not really a big deal for the Tories.

More cabinet ministers mean more money and more votes

Being a cabinet minister has its perks: prestige, the opportunity to serve Canadians in an important way, and a hefty $75,516.00 bonus, on top of the $157,731.00 yearly salary of an MP. But in addition to these benefits, cabinet ministers also have a better chance of being re-elected than their backbench colleagues.

The rest of the article can be read on The Globe and Mail website.

Along with doing the calculations for this article, I was also able to determine the "new cabinet minister effect", similar to the one I calculated for "star" candidates. It's not a huge boost, but it is a boost nevertheless. It will help me make (hopefully) more accurate riding projections once I'm ready to pronounce on each of the 308 ridings.

UPDATE: The data at the Pundits' Guide was used to run my calculations for this article. I'm sure everyone who writes about federal politics in Canada will agree that the site is an invaluable resource, and I absent-mindedly neglected to credit the site in my original draft. The error has been rectified.

2010 Opinion Polling Trends

As I did last year, here are the polling charts for 2010, which will be posted to the site for posterity. It's necessary to do this as the Opinion Polling Trends chart only tracks the last 12 months. As for 2009, a permanent link to the charts has been placed in the right-hand column, further down the page.

CROP shows big Bloc and PQ leads in Quebec

CROP conducted a pre-Christmas poll in Quebec, reported on last week by La Presse. It doesn't show much change from their last poll taken in the second half of November.At the federal level, the Bloc Québécois is up one point to 40%, well ahead of the Conservatives. They're up three points to 20%, and are second in the province.

The New Democrats are next, steady at 19%, while the Liberals have dropped to fourth place, down one point to a mere 18%. It's a logjam among the federalist parties. Both the Conservatives and New Democrats should be pleased with this level of support, particularly the NDP.

The poll would result in 52 seats for the Bloc, 12 for the Liberals, nine for the Conservatives, and two for the New Democrats.

The regional concentration of support enjoyed by the Bloc (francophones), Liberals (Montreal), and Conservatives (Quebec City) squeeze out the NDP, who have no regional concentration.

At the provincial level, there is a bit more movement.The Parti Québécois is up three points to 41%, while the Liberals are up two points to 25%. It is still a huge lead for the PQ and a disastrous level of support for Jean Charest.

The ADQ is up one to 16%, while Québec Solidaire is steady at 12%. This is a very good level of support for both parties. QS seems to really be making some strides, while the ADQ is back up to respectable levels.

Pauline Marois is the best person for Premier for 29% of respondents, while 18% opted for Jean Charest. Both Amir Khadir (QS) and Gérard Deltell (ADQ) scored 13%.

The poll would result in 83 seats for the Parti Québécois, unchanged from my last CROP projection that was featured in The Globe and Mail. The Liberals are up one seat to 25, while the ADQ is unchanged at 15 seats. Québec Solidaire would win two seats, down one from the November projection.

Provincially, this poll does not raise any alarms. However, CROP does have the Liberals lower than Léger Marketing puts them, which is the opposite of how the two pollsters have traditionally trended.

The federal numbers are a bit more unusual. Both CROP and Léger have been polling very well for the NDP in Quebec lately, but other pollsters do not see Jack Layton's party at such a high level of support, nearly twice their 2008 electoral haul.

One could claim that, as CROP and Léger are Quebec-based pollsters who routinely sample 1,000 Quebecers, they are more reliable. I'm not so sure if we can leave it at that. Léger is one of my higher rated pollsters, but CROP is one of my lowest rated. They both use an opt-in online panel, which CROP itself admits is not ideal. Léger's panel appears to have been created randomly, giving it a bit more of a claim to accuracy. Methodology seems to be the decisive factor, as even Angus-Reid (which uses a similar opt-in system) tends to side more with CROP and Léger. Traditional methods, like those used by EKOS, Harris-Decima, Nanos, and Ipsos-Reid, yield very different results.

We'll have to wait until the next election to settle who is right.