With a dozen MPs vulnerable, NDP faces defensive campaign

Jack Layton marked his eighth anniversary as Leader of the New Democratic Party this week. He has much to celebrate, having brought the party back to the glory days of Ed Broadbent and enjoyed a popularity rating that’s outpaced that of the last two Liberal leaders. In 2008, the NDP made breakthroughs in Newfoundland, Alberta, and Quebec and was a prorogation away from forming part of a coalition government. But Mr. Layton’s fourth campaign could be his toughest.

The full article can be read on The Globe and Mail website.

As with the other pieces I've done on the Greens and the Bloc Québécois, here is a full account of the ridings that factor in to the NDP's electoral calculus.

In general, these ridings are listed in order from most to least (secure/vulnerable/ etc.), but that was not a focus of my analysis.

FORTRESS RIDINGS (9)

St. John's East
Sackville - Eastern Shore
Acadie - Bathurst
Timmins - James Bay
Vancouver East
Windsor West
Hamilton Centre
Winnipeg Centre
Windsor - Tecumseh

SECURE RIDINGS (15)

Victoria
Burnaby - New Westminster
Skeena - Bulkley Valley
British Columbia Southern Interior
Nickel Belt
New Westminster - Coquitlam
Nanaimo - Cowichan
Hamilton Mountain
Toronto - Danforth
Churchill
London - Fanshawe
Ottawa Centre
Hamilton East - Stoney Creek
Algoma - Manitoulin - Kapuskasing
Elmwood - Transcona

VULNERABLE RIDINGS (12)

Welland
Vancouver Kingsway
Sudbury
Sault Ste. Marie
Halifax
Trinity - Spadina
Edmonton - Strathcona
Thunder Bay - Rainy River
Western Arctic
Thunder Bay - Superior North
Burnaby - Douglas
Outremont

TARGETED RIDINGS (5)

Saskatoon - Rosetown - Biggar
Surrey North
Vancouver Island North
Gatineau
Winnipeg North

POTENTIAL RIDINGS (35)

Nunavut
Kamloops - Thompson - Cariboo
Palliser
Oshawa
Nanaimo - Alberni
Parkdale - High Park
Pontiac
South Shore - St. Margaret's
Beaches - East York
Hull - Aylmer
Pitt Meadows - Maple Ridge - Mission
Essex
Brossard - La Prairie
St. John's South - Mount Pearl
Regina - Qu'Appelle
Fleetwood - Port Kells
Newton - North Delta
Kildonan - St. Paul
Jeanne-Le Ber
Esquimalt - Juan de Fuca
Edmonton East
Davenport
Kenora
Guelph
Portneuf - Jacques-Cartier
Kitchener Centre
Vancouver Centre
Dartmouth - Cole Harbour
York South - Weston
Kitchener - Waterloo
Halifax West
Kingston and the Islands
London North Centre
Vancouver South
Kings - Hants