From pre-writ polls to election day, history is not on Ignatieff’s side

Whenever a party is confronted with a yawning gap between themselves and their main rivals in a pre-election poll, it is usually waved off because “campaigns matter.” And they do. Campaigns give parties the opportunity to present a platform to Canadians and give voters a chance to get to know the leaders and their local candidates better. Campaigns also tend to shift pre-election polling results a great deal.

You can read the rest of the article on The Globe and Mail website.

Ontario and Quebec the keys to Tory gains

You can also read my column for The Hill Times here. A subscription is required, so why not subscribe?

It's a comparison of the four polls in early February (from Nanos, Ipsos-Reid, EKOS, and Harris-Decima) to the last time all four polling firms were in the field at the same time in early December.

I will be posting later today about Angus-Reid's new monster poll, so stay tuned!