Here are the results we get at the national level, with the difference from last month's average in brackets.Conservatives - 35.0% (-0.3)
Liberals - 27.6% (-0.2)
New Democrats - 15.9% (-0.3)
Bloc Québécois - 9.9% (-0.3)
Greens - 9.2% (+0.4)
Others - 2.3% (+0.6)
A relatively stable month for all the main parties, though they all dropped slightly. For the Liberals, this is a drop of one point over the last three months.
The seat projection for these results is as follows, with the difference from last month in brackets:Conservatives - 136 (-4)
Liberals - 93 (+3)
Bloc Québécois - 53 (unchanged)
New Democrats - 26 (+1)
Greens - 0 (unchanged)
A little bit of back and forth between the Liberals and Conservatives, and a tidbit of good news for the New Democrats. But they had lost nine seats in December.
The regional results, with difference from last month in brackets:BRITISH COLUMBIA (5 polls - about 1,140 people)
Conservatives - 38.5% (-1.1)
New Democrats - 24.0% (+0.4)
Liberals - 23.2% (-0.2)
Greens - 12.8% (+1.5)
Others - 1.5%
December was tumultuous in BC, but January was far more stable. The Conservatives would win 22 seats (unchanged), the Liberals eight (unchanged), and the New Democrats six (unchanged).
ALBERTA (5 polls - about 1,030 people)
Conservatives - 60.1% (+5.7)
Liberals - 18.1% (-2.5)
Greens - 9.4% (-2.3)
New Democrats - 9.2% (-1.6)
Others - 3.2%
The Tories made a big gain in Alberta, getting back up to their traditional levels of support. The NDP remains mired in fourth behind the Greens. Unchanged from last month, the Conservatives would win 27 seats and the Liberals one.
SASKATCHEWAN & MANITOBA (5 polls - about 700 people)
Conservatives - 44.6% (-3.3)
New Democrats - 23.7% (+2.5)
Liberals - 20.9% (-2.5)
Greens - 9.0% (+2.8)
Others - 1.8%
The Conservatives and Liberals fall back as the NDP and Greens move forward. The Tories would win 20 seats (-1), the Liberals four (unchanged), and the New Democrats four (+1).
ONTARIO (5 polls - about 4,000 people)
Conservatives - 37.8% (-0.6)
Liberals - 35.0% (+1.6)
New Democrats - 15.3% (-1.4)
Greens - 10.2% (+0.3)
Others - 1.7%
The Liberals gain over two points on the Conservatives, while the NDP is down 1.6 points over the last two months. The Conservatives would win 51 seats (-2), the Liberals would win 43 (+3), and the NDP would win 12 (-1).
QUEBEC (6 polls - about 4,320 people)
Bloc Québécois - 39.8% (unchanged)
Liberals - 20.4% (-0.5)
Conservatives - 17.1% (-0.6)
New Democrats - 14.1% (+0.1)
Greens - 6.2% (+0.3)
Others - 2.5%
The Bloc holds steady while their two chief rivals fall back. This is a drop of 3.7 points for the Liberals since December. The Bloc would win 53 seats (unchanged), the Liberals 14 (unchanged), the Conservatives seven (unchanged), and the NDP one (unchanged).
ATLANTIC CANADA (5 polls - about 790 people)
Liberals - 40.6% (-0.6)
Conservatives - 30.8% (-4.5)
New Democrats - 18.8% (+0.5)
Greens - 4.9% (+0.1)
Others - 4.8%
The Conservatives drop after a big gain in December, while the NDP seems to have finally stopped the slide. The Liberals would win 21 seats (unchanged), the Conservatives eight (-1), and the NDP three (+1).
A rather unremarkable month, in the end. Very little movement in the national numbers, and no significant changes in support at the regional level. The one potentially important change in January's polling as in Ontario, as the gap between the Conservatives and Liberals has gone from five points to only 2.8.
