Liberals poised for gains, but not government, in make-or-break battle

Depending on the outcome, Michael Ignatieff’s first kick at the electoral can could be his last. Though the Liberal Party is arguably better equipped and positioned to fight the next election than it was under Stéphane Dion, it will take a significant shift in public opinion to bump the Grits out of the opposition benches and into government.

The rest of the article, my fourth in a five-part series, can be read on The Globe and Mail website.

As I've done for the other parties, here is the full list of ridings and their classification. I've put them in order from most to least (i.e., most secure, least vulnerable).

FORTRESS RIDINGS (19)

Labrador
Humber - St. Barbe - Baie Verte
Bonavista - Gander - Grand Falls - Windsor
Saint-Laurent - Cartierville
York West
Saint-Léonard - Saint-Michel
Random - Burin - St. George's
Scarborough - Rouge River
Toronto Centre
Sydney - Victoria
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce - Lachine
Mount Royal
Scarborough - Agincourt
Markham - Unionville
St. Paul's
Cape Breton - Canso
Cardigan
Bourassa
Westmount - Ville-Marie

SECURE RIDINGS (47)

Halifax West
York South - Weston
Pierrefonds - Dollard
Scarborough - Guildwood
Wascana
Ottawa - Vanier
Scarborough Centre
Etobicoke North
Dartmouth - Cole Harbour
Vancouver Centre
Mississauga East - Cooksville
Pickering - Scarborough East
Charlottetown
Kings - Hants
Don Valley East
Davenport
Vancouver Quadra
Beauséjour
Ottawa South
Willowdale
Mississauga - Brampton South
Newton - North Delta
Winnipeg South Centre
Madawaska - Restigouche
St. John's South - Mount Pearl
Scarborough Southwest
Nipissing - Timiskaming
Etobicoke Centre
Richmond Hill
Etobicoke - Lakeshore
Beaches - East York
Laval - Les Iles
LaSalle - Émard
Mississauga - Streetsville
Honoré-Mercier
Hull - Aylmer
Parkdale - High Park
Avalon
Bramalea - Gore - Malton
Ajax - Pickering
London North Centre
Don Valey West
York Centre
Eglinton - Lawrence
Mississauga South
Malpeque
Guelph

VULNERABLE RIDINGS (11)

Brossard - La Prairie
Papineau
Brampton West
Brampton - Springdale
Moncton - Riverview - Dieppe
Winnipeg North
Kingston and the Islands
Vancouver South
Esquimalt - Juan de Fuca
Yukon
Lac-Saint-Louis

TARGETED RIDINGS (23)

Saanich - Gulf Islands
North Vancouver
Kitchener - Waterloo
Vancouver Kingsway
Mississauga - Erindale
Oak Ridges - Markham
Kitchener Centre
Egmont
Saint John
Sudbury
Welland
Trinity - Spadina
Saint Boniface
London West
Vaughan
Thunder Bay - Rainy River
Ahuntsic
Haute-Gaspésie - La Mitis - Matane - Matapédia
Brome - Missisquoi
Jeanne-Le Ber
Gatineau
Burnaby - Douglas
Outremont

POTENTIAL RIDINGS (54)

West Nova
Halifax
Miramichi
Ottawa - Orléans
Thunder Bay - Superior North
Winnipeg South
Nunavut
Haldimand - Norfolk
Brant
Kenora
Desnethé - Missinippi - Churchill River
Ottawa West - Nepean
Pontiac
Thornhill
West Vancouver - Sunshine Coast - Sea to Sky
Oakville
Fleetwood - Port Kells
Glengarry - Prescott - Russell
Algoma - Manitoulin - Kapuskasing
Richmond
Essex
Hamilton East - Stoney Creek
Ottawa Centre
Halton
Huron - Bruce
Fredericton
Churchill
Newmarket - Aurora
Edmonton Centre
Toronto - Danforth
South Shore - St. Margaret's
Saint-Lambert
Alfred-Pellan
Laval
Burlington
Peterborough
St. Catharines
Nickel Belt
Louis-Hébert
Central Nova
Gaspésie - Iles-de-la-Madeleine
Chatham-Kent - Essex
Ancaster - Dundas - Flamborough - Westdale
Niagara Falls
Portneuf - Jacques-Cartier
Northumberland - Quinte West
Simcoe North
Compton - Stanstead
Vaudreuil-Soulanges
Laurentides - Labelle
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin
Abitibi - Baie-James - Nunavik - Eeyou
Shefford
Drummond