Charest's Liberals in the lead?

As I work to include the latest poll by Forum Research for The National Post into the projection, I invite you to read my take on the surprising results in my article for The Globe and Mail.

The reaction to the poll has been pretty skeptical in the Twittersphere. I have to admit that such a dramatic and unexpected turn of events leads me to raise an eyebrow as well, but we should wait and see what the other active firms in Quebec have to say before passing complete judgement on the poll. Then again, as I mention in the article, the three one-on-one debates could change things on their own and thereby prevent us from knowing whether Forum was capturing a real surge in support for the Liberals or just a statistical wobble.

Practically speaking, the projection will swing pretty wildly due to this poll. The most recent survey before Forum's is older by five days (in terms of the median date used for weighting), meaning Forum's poll will take up a lot of space in the projection. It will be more interesting to see where everything stands after CROP and Léger have reported, as it will give us a chance to 'triangulate' things, but if Forum is indeed capturing a shifting tide then the projection will have swung in the right direction. We shall see.