January 2014 federal polling averages

Only one national poll had been conducted for the month of December, but in January there were four, in addition to one survey done entirely in Quebec. If we compare January's numbers to the last month with some decent polling, in November, we see that not much has changed - though the Liberals and New Democrats swapped about a point.

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The Liberals averaged 35.5% support in January, down one point from their average support in November. The Conservatives, who stopped a three month decline in January, averaged 28.4%, a gain of 0.5 points. The New Democrats were up 0.9 points to 24.3%.

The Greens were up 0.5 points to 5.4%, while the Bloc Québécois was down 1.5 points to 4.9%. Support for other parties stood at 1.5%.

Comparing the four national polls conducted in January to the last time these firms were active within a similar window, we see the New Democrats have made a significant gain from a particular low level.

Compared to polling by the same firms done at the end of October, the New Democrats were up 2.6 points. The Liberals dropped 1.4 points and the Conservatives fell 0.6 points.

At the regional levels, the Liberals continued to lead in British Columbia, Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada, with the Conservatives ahead in Alberta and the Prairies.

In Ontario, the Liberals dropped 1.9 points to 37.4% but they have been between 36% and 38% for five months now in the province. The Conservatives picked up 3.8 points since November to reach 34.9%, their best result since April 2013. The New Democrats were down 1.3 points to 21.6%, while the Greens were up 0.6 points to 4.6%.

The Liberals gained 0.7 points to reach 36.7% support in Quebec, their best numbers since August 2013. The NDP also reached a high since then, up 3.4 points to 28.8%. The Bloc reached a low since August 2013 with a fall of 3.3 points to 18.5%, while the Conservatives were up 0.4 points to 12.5%. They have been between 12% and 13% for seven months now. The Greens were down 1.5 points to 3%.

The Conservatives were down 1.3 points in the Prairies to 35.6%, while the Liberals dropped for the third consecutive month to 30.2%, a fall of 5.9 points since November. The NDP put up their best numbers since January 2013, with a gain of 5.4 points to 27.8% support. The Greens were up 1.1 points to 5.2%.

In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals were up 5.1 points to 52.5%, while the NDP and Conservatives were both pegged at less than 25% for the third consecutive month. The NDP was down 0.7 points to 21.9% and the Conservatives were down 3.7 points to 21.1%. The Greens slipped 0.7 points to 3.4%.

The Conservatives dropped 5.9 points to 50.6% support in Alberta, their lowest level since May 2013. The Liberals were up 8.4 points to 27.6%, their best since then. The NDP was down four points to 14.5%, while the Greens were up 1.6 points to 5.7%.

And in British Columbia, the Liberals decreased by 4.7 points to 30.4%, followed by the Conservatives at 28.9% (+1.6), the NDP at 27.6% (-1.3), and the Greens at 10.6% (+3).

With these levels of support, the Liberals would win 136 seats, down six from their November estimate. The Conservatives would win 120 seats, up three, while the NDP would take 78, up 10. The Bloc dropped eight seats to two and the Greens gained one to reach two as well

The Liberals dropped most of their seats in Ontario, falling seven to 53. They were also down two seats in both the Prairies and Quebec. But they were up two seats in Alberta and three in Atlantic Canada.

The Conservative seat gains were in Ontario, where they picked up eight. They were also up one in British Columbia, though they were down one in the Prairies, two in Alberta, and three in Atlantic Canada.

The New Democrats gained 10 seats in Quebec and three in the Prairies, while dropping one in Ontario and two in British Columbia.

January showed a continuation of what we had seen in 2013. The Liberals retain the lead, which they have held now since April 2013. The Conservatives remain below 30% and the NDP is stuck in third. There are some interesting regional contests, though, with a three-way race persisting in British Columbia and Ontario and Quebec hardly decided.