The projection has been updated with a
poll from Oracle Research, who we heard from
earlier in the campaign. The poll is older than the most recent Ipsos Reid survey, however, as it dates from May 23-27. It was a telephone poll interviewing 1,000 people for Environmental Communications Options, a consultancy. The poll gave the PCs 36% support against 32% for the Liberals, 25% for the NDP, and 7% for the Greens.
Had the poll been included along with the other survey completed on May 27 by Forum Research, the dramatic swing that occurred with the addition of the Ipsos poll yesterday would have been lessened, as in the prior update the PCs would have narrowly led in the vote and seat count. The range tracker graphic on the projection page has been retroactively updated to show this.
The Oracle poll is interesting as their previous survey had shown a very large lead for the Tories (42% to 31%), just as an Ipsos poll done at the same time did. And now they show a close race leaning PC, just as Ipsos has in their eligible-voter tally released on Thursday. It helps to clarify the picture somewhat.
While I do not include internal party polls or interest-group polls in the projection model, I have included those commissioned by consultancies before (Hill & Knowlton in 2013 in British Columbia), as well as the previous Oracle poll and the riding polls being done by Oracle in the party leaders' ridings. In addition, Oracle Research has conducted polls in other races over the last few years, notably British Columbia and in a number of Ontario by-elections.
