Brief Ontario update

A quick update incorporating the data in polls released since Friday evening, which I will analyse in greater detail on Monday morning.

The Liberals and PCs are now tied in the popular vote projection, with 37.3% apiece (or between 36% and 41%). This represents a 1.6-point drop for the Liberals and a 2.3-point gain for the Tories. The New Democrats are up 1.2 points to 19.6% (or between 18% and 21%), while the Greens were down to 4.7% (or between 3% and 6%).

In terms of seats, the Liberals dropped three to 50 (or between 43 and 59) while the PCs were unchanged at 40 (or between 33 and 48). However, the PCs' upper band increased and it now overlaps with the Liberals. The NDP was up three seats to 17, or between 11 and 20 seats.

The projection was updated with three polls, by Ipsos Reid for CTV/CP24, EKOS Research for iPolitics, and Forum Research for the Toronto Star. A series of riding polls conducted by Forum were also added to the model.