2015 Federal Election Link Round-up, Week 2

Week 2 begins! Polling from Week 1 was notable for its absence, which is perhaps not too surprising. Polling takes a little bit of lead time, and vacations can be difficult to re-schedule on such short notice. Hopefully we'll see some more numbers this week.

Friday, August 14, 2015

- The riding projections are now up-to-date.
- The Poll Tracker has been updated, and here is my latest analysis of the numbers (including the new poll from Mainstreet Research).
- A new episode of the Pollcast was uploaded yesterday. The guest is Dimitri Pantazopoulos, a pollster that has worked with the B.C. Liberals and the federal Conservatives. He gives us a peek at how parties are doing and reading their polls.

Thursday, August 13, 2015

- The Poll Tracker's been updated with the latest Forum poll. The impact has primarily been a downturn for the Conservatives.
- I was on Power and Politics last night talking about the effect of the Duffy trial and the debate on the polls.

Wednesday, August 12, 2015

- Here's my analysis of the latest Poll Tracker update.
- Riding projections have been updated to reflect the latest Poll Tracker update.
- The Poll Tracker has been updated with the new Ipsos-Reid poll for Global News. You might notice that the poll has a very high weight. It has run up against the cap the model has on the weighting applied to any one poll, that being 67%. The Ipsos poll has hit this cap because it is, really, the first poll to have been conducted since August 2. That makes it over a week newer than the previous poll in the model (Forum's). The Nanos poll, though it ended on August 7, was primarily conducted before the writs dropped as it is a four-week rolling poll. Simply put, the model considers the Ipsos poll to be pretty much the only current information we have, so it has a high weighting. This will not happen very often going forward, as the pace of polling will undoubtedly pick up.
- For my CBC column today, I wrote about the impact of incumbents not running for re-election. Some interesting findings, drawing on the calculations used for the model as well as the riding projections.
- The latest episode of the Election Pollcast was uploaded last night. This week's guest is Paul Adams, associate professor of journalism at Carleton University and someone who has worked both as a journalist and as a pollster. A really fascinating discussion of the way the relationship between pollsters and the media has changed over the last 20-30 years.

Tuesday, August 11, 2015

- The riding projections have been updated to align with the latest Poll Tracker numbers.
- Finally, a poll! Sure, it is a four-week rolling poll with the bulk of it having been taking before the writs were dropped (and all but one day of it done before the debate), but we've gotten desperate. Here's the link to the Nanos poll. The Poll Tracker has been updated too, but the changes have been marginal.

Monday, August 10, 2015

- Time to check-in on the polling averages for July.
- The polls are in for Thursday's debate, and the results are...oddly regional. Mainstreet Research looked at what British Columbians thought, while Forum Research looked at what residents of the GTA thought. Well, residents who were at home in the middle of the day on a Friday. Sheesh. If we can draw anything from these, it is that Justin Trudeau and Elizabeth May probably did the most to help their respective causes.
- RDI Matin Week-end, au sujet des sondages politiques.
- Following the interesting discussion with Christian Bourque in last week's podcast, I looked at the challenges this long and tight campaign poses for pollsters.
- In our regional go-around, Chris Hall and I discuss Alberta on The House.
- Debate reaction on CBC Ottawa News, starting at 14:30.