2015 Federal Election Link Round-up, Week 4

The beat goes on. Just seven weeks to go! Seven! After this one!

Friday, August 28, 2015

- Are the Conservatives headed for third place? I ask this question in my CBC analysis this afternoon. The trends are pointing in that direction, and two of the last three polls are showing it. Could be a blip, or could be something really unexpected.

- The Poll Tracker has been updated with the Ipsos and new EKOS polls. It is getting to the point where we can only call this a three-way race within the historical context. The riding projections have also been updated.

- It's poll day. Ipsos Reid was out last night, showing the same close race but with the Liberals narrowly moving up into second place. It's a wobble within the margin of error, but since the end of July Ipsos has definitely recorded a movement from the Tories to the Liberals. An interesting parallel to yesterday's Forum poll, which showed some of the same trends (though with the NDP up) but might have also suffered from a little elephantitis. EKOS will be out later today, and I'll be looking to see if they are showing some of the same movement. The next Poll Tracker update will come after EKOS is out.

Thursday, August 27, 2015

- The Poll Tracker has been updated with the Forum poll, pushing the NDP's likely seat range above that of the Conservatives. The riding projections are now up-to-date as well.

- I joined Chris Hall on Power and Politics last night to talk about my piece on the leaders' tours. We also went over where the numbers stand today. Speaking of which, Forum broke the mold this morning. Harbinger of things to come, or the kind of quickly-corrected swing we've seen from Forum before?

Wednesday, August 26, 2015

- Two Pollcast episodes are up today! A special treat, with three this week after yesterday's podcast with Mario Canseco. Today, a discussion with Facebook's Kevin Chan about what they are doing in this campaign, and another discussion with the Angus Reid Institute's Shachi Kurl. What are her numbers showing? You can find both episodes here. You can also subscribe on iTunes or with the iPhone podcast app.

- The Poll Tracker has been updated, reflecting the latest Angus Reid numbers as well as those for Alberta from Insights West. The riding projections are also up-to-date. And watch for the next episode of the Pollcast coming later today. Today's guest is Shachi Kurl from Angus Reid Institute to talk about their new poll.

- I tried to read the tea leaves of the leaders' tours in my piece for the CBC this morning. My conclusions? The Conservatives are playing the long game, the NDP is consolidating gains, and the Liberals are focusing on ridings that are on the bubble now.

- The latest episode of the Pollcast features Mario Canseco of Insights West. We discuss their latest B.C.-only poll.

- An Angus Reid Institute poll was released this morning, showing numbers broadly in-line with other surveys. But the numbers for the Liberals were a little lower than the norm.

Tuesday, August 25, 2015

- The riding projections have been updated to reflect the latest numbers on the Poll Tracker.

- An interesting poll from Insights West on the race in B.C., with detailed regional breakdowns. Watch for the latest episode of the Pollcast, in which I discuss the poll with Insights West's Mario Canseco.

- A lot of talk about the economy today, so I took a look at how the parties and leaders rate on the issue. The verdict? The economy is not the Conservative trump card it once was.

- Nanos's four-week rolling poll is out, showing everyone still clumped together. The big bone of contention with the other polls, though, is in Ontario. Nanos has the Tories doing much better than other polls, and I don't think we can chalk it up to old data.

Monday, August 24, 2015

- This weekend, I joined Chris Hall on The House to talk about Battleground Quebec: the recent CROP, the Conservatives' chances in Quebec City, and how the Bloc Québécois is doing.

- Quiet weekend and Monday morning on the polling front. There have been 11 polls conducted during the campaign so far after 22 days. At this point of the 2011 campaign, there had been 46 polls. Of course, that was a shorter campaign. In the same period this far out from the 2011 vote, there had been eight polls conducted. We're beating that mark, at least.