2015 Federal Election Link Round-up: Week 8

Less than four weeks to go! Here are the unweighted weekly averages:

Week 8: CPC 30.8% LPC 30.7% NDP 28.7% GPC 4.9% BQ 4.0%
Week 7: NDP 30.7% CPC 30.0% LPC 29.8% GPC 5.6% BQ 3.3%
Week 6: NDP 31.7% LPC 30.3% CPC 29.1% GPC 4.9% BQ 3.5%
Week 5: NDP 32.4% LPC 29.9% CPC 27.2% GPC 5.1% BQ 4.1%
Week 4: NDP 33.9% CPC 28.4% LPC 27.9% GPC 5.0% BQ 3.8%
Week 3: NDP 32.7% CPC 29.4% LPC 28.0% GPC 5.1% BQ 3.9%
Week 2: NDP 31.8% CPC 29.8% LPC 27.5% GPC 5.4% BQ 4.6%
Week 1: NDP 34.7% CPC 29.6% LPC 26.8% BQ 4.6% GPC 4.0%

Friday, September 25, 2015

- The Poll Tracker and the riding projections have been updated.

- Riding polls in Manitoba and Saskatchewan from Mainstreet.

- My analysis of the latest polls from yesterday. Is the NDP slipping? Nanos today argues against that, but Forum argues for it. The debate last night may make the question moot.

- I was on Power and Politics last night talking about the state of the race and the odd discrepancies in the polls yesterday.

- Nanos and Forum today show the same three-way race that they've been showing for awhile now. And an Alberta poll from Insights West with some interesting regional breakdowns.

Thursday, September 24, 2015

- It is pollmageddon today. Here's Nanos and Léger, showing the same old race. Here's EKOS, showing something unrecognizable. Here's Mainstreet in Ontario, and a few places in Quebec. And here's Forum in four ridings in Toronto.

Wednesday, September 23, 2015

- The Poll Tracker has been updated, and the riding projections will be updated shortly. In the meantime, check out the new feature Stephen McMurtry has added to the interactive projection map. It allows you to toggle between each party's high projected range, giving you an idea of what the map would look like if each party maxes out its potential wins. These numbers represent the likely ranges, and not the max ranges.

- My next regional spotlight is on southwestern Ontario.

- Your daily Nanos. Compared to the previous independent three-day sample, the Liberals are up a bit, the Conservatives are up a little, and the NDP is steady. It's the dance of the thousandth percentage points.

Tuesday, September 22, 2015

- On the latest episode of the Pollcast, Phil Authier from the Montreal Gazette joins me to talk about that whole NDP Papineau poll.

- The Poll Tracker and the riding projections have been updated.

- Yesterday's polling panel with Dimitri Pantazapolous on Power and Politics.

- Polls from Forum and Ipsos Reid yesterday, and Nanos this morning.

Monday, September 21, 2015

- I took a stab at gauging the race in terms of whether opinion was firming up or not. It's not.

- The Poll Tracker and the riding projections have been updated.

- Your daily Nanos. Compared to the previous independent three day sample, the NDP is down about two points, the Liberals are down a little less than that, and the Conservatives are up about two points. Taking the entire campaign in three day blocks, the Tories have registered, from start to today 26%, 31%, 31%, 29%, and 31%. For the NDP, it has been 31%, 30%, 30%, 31%, 29%, and for the Liberals it has been 33%, 32%, 30%, 31%, 29%. Not a whole lot of movement, except maybe a swing from the Liberals to the Tories in early September.

- A few Atlantic Canada riding polls from Mainstreet Research.

- My second regional spotlight went up Saturday. This time the focus was on Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

- I was on The House Saturday, talking about debates and the economy.