2015 Federal Election Link Round-up, Week 9

Only three more full weeks to go before voting day. Are we starting to see the three-way race became unstuck?

Saturday, October 3, 2014

- My latest regional analysis is of Greater Montreal.

- I was on The House this morning talking about the latest polls and the impact of the debates.

- The Poll Tracker and riding projections have been updated. On a weekend! Now that we're in the final stretch, I will try to update on the weekends when there are enough polls out to warrant an update. I wouldn't update for a single Nanos poll, for example, but today I had three to add.

Friday, October 2, 2015

- The Poll Tracker and riding projections have been updated, and the actual candidates in each riding has been taken into account in these projections.

- This is a great editorial from the National Post in defence of polling. The editorial makes pretty much every point I would make in defence of polling during a campaign, so I give it a very hearty thumbs up.

- Your daily Nanos, which has the Liberals up and the Tories and NDP down compared to their previous independent three-day sample. An Angus Reid Institute poll from yesterday, but since we haven't heard from ARI in a little while it is difficult to see the trend line. But it echoes the Forum poll from yesterday. And a Léger poll this morning, showing the NDP down and some big changes in Quebec. Finally, a Forum riding poll for University–Rosedale showing a close race.

Thursday, October 1, 2015

- Here's my analysis of this morning's polling.

- The Poll Tracker and riding projections have been updated. Note that the riding projections do not take into account the official candidate list yet.

- Your daily Nanos, showing stability for the Liberals and Conservatives and a tiny decline for the NDP since Nanos's previous independent three-day sample. And a Forum poll, showing the Conservatives up, the Liberals down, and the NDP steady. The two polls (looking at when Nanos was last in the field at the same time as Forum) agree on the Conservative uptick, but disagree on whether it is the NDP (Nanos) or the Liberals (Forum) that dropped as a result.

- For those wondering, as the official list of candidates is now finalized I will be going through that list to make sure the projections reflect the actual ballot in each riding. Look for those updated numbers either later today or tomorrow.

- I was on Power and Politics last night talking about Alberta.

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

- The Poll Tracker and riding projections have been updated.

- My latest regional focus, this time on Alberta.

- The daily Nanos poll, which is generally showing stability for the Liberals and Conservatives and continuing decline for the New Democrats. That has been the story of the last week. Here are Nanos's results since the beginning of September, looking only at the independent three day samples:

09/08: 26% - 31% - 33%
09/11: 31% - 30% - 32%
09/14: 31% - 30% - 30%
09/17: 29% - 31% - 31%
09/20: 31% - 29% - 29%
09/23: 31% - 31% - 32%
09/26: 32% - 28% - 33%
09/29: 32% - 26% - 32%

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

- The Poll Tracker and riding projections have been updated.

- A busy day yesterday! Here I am on The National talking about the latest polls (starts at 8:55), here's the polling panel with David Coletto and Dimitri Pantazapoulos on Power and Politics, et hier sur Midi info au sujet des sondages et leur importance.

- Stability in your daily Nanos numbers, while Ipsos Reid is showing the same sort of longer term gains for the Tories and losses for the NDP that other polls have been showing.

Monday, September 28, 2015

- My analysis of today's polls. This was before the new Ipsos Reid poll. And the Pollcast episode with David Coletto is up. You can find it here.

- The Poll Tracker and riding projections have been updated.

- The Abacus poll, with the surprisingly large drop for the NDP in Quebec. Stay tuned for the next episode of the Pollcast, as David Coletto of Abacus Data will drop by to talk about his numbers.

- Your daily Nanos, which is showing some definite movement against the New Democrats. It is certainly the most dramatic shift we've seen since the three-way race ensconced itself. Also, some interesting Innovative numbers (see the full website for all the PDFs), and an Abacus poll is forthcoming. Some riding polls from Forum have just been released, looking at two ridings in Edmonton and one in Ottawa.

- On The House this weekend, I talked about Ontario and the latest EKOS poll. I also took my regional look to northern, central, and eastern Ontario.

- In case you were wondering, I'm not going to calculate the weekly averages as they were conflicting with the Poll Tracker and confusing some people.