2015 Federal Election Link Round-up, Week 10

The debates are done and we now find ourselves in the penultimate week. A decisive week?

Saturday, October 10, 2015

- The Poll Tracker and riding projections have been updated.

- I talked to Chris Hall on The House about the TPP and the trend line heading into the final week.

- Another four polls this morning: EKOS, Nanos, Angus Reid Institute, and Innovative. Innovative and Nanos show the Liberals moving ahead, and EKOS has it tightening up. ARI has moved into agreement with the other pollsters compared to where it stood before.

- Some long-weekend scheduling: I'll be updating the Poll Tracker today and on Monday, but not Sunday.

Friday, October 9, 2015

- The Poll Tracker and riding projections have been updated.

- The latest episode of the Pollcast, with unofficial co-host David Coletto of Abacus Data. We talked the change vote and the TPP.

- Looking for a poll today? Looking for four? Nanos, Léger, EKOS, Mainstreet. All but Mainstreet show the Liberals ahead, and even that poll has the gap at one point after putting it at seven.

Thursday, October 8, 2015

- My latest analysis of the new polling numbers.

- The Poll Tracker and riding projections have been updated.

- Talking about the polls on last night's Power and Politics with Rosemary Barton.

- The latest episode of the Pollcast, featuring Susan Delacourt! We talk about what impact the polls have had on this campaign, and how the media has been covering them.

- Les tendances des sondages - Matins sans frontières, Radio-Canada Windsor.

- The last 18 hours of polls: Nanos showing the Liberals down, the NDP up, and the Conservatives up a little since their previous three-day sample. Since a day before, EKOS showing the Tories and NDP down, the Liberals up. And Forum showing the Liberals up and the Conservatives down from their previous survey. A lot of convergence, then, from the more confusing picture the polls were painting over the past week or two. Also, some riding polls from Mainstreet for the Ottawa region.

Wednesday, October 7, 2015

- The Poll Tracker and riding projections have been updated.

- My latest regional spotlight is on Toronto.

- Your daily Nanos. Compared to the previous three day sample, every party has moved about a point: the Liberals and NDP down, the Conservatives up. And an Abacus Data poll just released, showing the Conservatives up very slightly, and the Liberals making a more substantial gain at the expense of the NDP. With this poll, and the EKOS poll yesterday, I think we're starting to see more convergence.

Tuesday, October 6, 2015

- My latest analysis of the polls, and how they are still in disagreement. And this disagreement might continue on a daily basis, as EKOS will now be releasing daily tracking polls too!

- The Poll Tracker and riding projections have been updated.

- A few national polls released in the last day. Your daily Nanos, which compared to the previous independent three day sample is showing the Liberals and Conservatives up very marginally and the NDP down less marginally (and overall, the Liberals leading the Conservatives by 3.5 points). Ipsos Reid is showing very little change from their previous poll, with the NDP and Liberals down a point and the Conservatives up one (the Conservatives lead the Liberals by one). And then there's Mainstreet, which shows the Conservatives almost in majority territory (the Conservatives lead the Liberals by eight). Their previous poll was done almost two months before, so the trend line is not very informative. Also note that Mainstreet was out of the field on October 1, whereas Nanos and Ipsos were out of the field on October 5.

- Another bunch of riding polls from Forum. Check out this page for the full list.

Monday, October 5, 2015

- The Poll Tracker and riding projections have been updated.

- Your daily Nanos. Compared to the last independent sample from Nanos, we're looking at a small drop for the Conservatives (0.9 points), a decent increase for the Liberals (2.1 points), and a slide for the NDP (3.1 points). Compared to the sample before that, we're looking at much more substantial movement (-1.6 for the Conservatives, +4.2 for the Liberals, and -4.2 for the NDP). Also, a riding poll from Forum for Peterborough–Kawartha.

- If you're up this early, you can catch me on CBC Quebec City radio (in English) at about 8:10 ET and on CBC News Network at 8:40 ET.