The following are ThreeHundredEight.com's riding-level projections for the Saskatchewan and Manitoba provincial elections scheduled for April 4 and April 19, 2016, respectively.
The Manitoba numbers were last updated on April 18, 2016, and reflect the best estimates as of April 18, 2016, the last day of polls included in the model.
The Saskatchewan numbers were last updated on April 3, 2016, and reflect the best estimates as of April 2, 2016, the last day of polls included in the model.
The Manitoba numbers were last updated on April 18, 2016, and reflect the best estimates as of April 18, 2016, the last day of polls included in the model.
The Saskatchewan numbers were last updated on April 3, 2016, and reflect the best estimates as of April 2, 2016, the last day of polls included in the model.
ThreeHundredEight.com's detailed provincial vote and seat projections can now be found at the CBC's Saskatchewan Poll Tracker and Manitoba Poll Tracker.
The riding projections here may lag behind the Poll Tracker's latest projections by a few hours. Please be sure to check the date of the projections above.
The riding projections here may lag behind the Poll Tracker's latest projections by a few hours. Please be sure to check the date of the projections above.
A detailed explanation of the vote and seat projection models that have been used to make these riding projections can be found here.
These riding projections are the best estimates of likely outcomes if an election were held on the last day of polling. The high and low results are the estimates of likely floors and ceilings, based on the high and low vote projection ranges. The probabilities listed beside each riding is the likelihood that, if an election were held on the last day of polling, the projection model would correctly identify the winner. It does not assign any probability to a particular trailing party winning the riding - if a projection gives the leading party a 75% chance of winning, there is a 25% chance that any of the other parties could win (though, in practice, most ridings are only contests between two parties).
Thanks to Kyle Hutton for calculating the transposition of the 2011 Saskatchewan results onto the new electoral boundaries.
These riding projections are not polls and are not necessarily an accurate reflection of current voting intentions in each riding.
Thanks to Kyle Hutton for calculating the transposition of the 2011 Saskatchewan results onto the new electoral boundaries.
These riding projections are not polls and are not necessarily an accurate reflection of current voting intentions in each riding.
