March 2016 federal and provincial polling averages (updated)

An update to this post was made on April 15, for two reasons. Firstly, the original post failed to include a poll by the Innovative Research Group that had been conducted in March. Secondly, there was an error made in how the maximum seat projection ranges have been calculated since the election. Edits have been made throughout the text and the graphics have been updated as well.

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Federal polling picked up a little in March, with five national and one Quebec poll being conducted and published throughout the month. In total, over 10,000 Canadians were sampled, and the numbers continue to show robust support for the Liberals.

The Liberals led in March with an average of 45 per cent support, down four points from February. But they are down only 0.2 points from January and 1.2 points from December.

As February had only two national polls, it would perhaps be unwise to draw too many conclusions from a comparison to that month. It might be more accurate to say the Liberals are down slightly from where they were in December and January. It is also their lowest result since the election.

The Conservatives averaged 30.5 per cent support, up one point from February and 2.1 points from January. This was their best score since the election.

The New Democrats were at 13.1 per cent, up 0.6 points from February but down 3.2 points from January — and 6.6 points since the October vote.

The Greens were at 5.5 per cent and the Bloc Québécois at 4.4 per cent, steady numbers since the election. Another 1.5 per cent, on average, said they would support another party or independent candidate.

I won't make any direct comparisons to the regional results in February, as the two polls from that month would have still had very small combined regional sample sizes.

The Liberals led in British Columbia with 47.4 per cent support, a second consecutive month of increase putting the party back where it was in the aftermath of the election. The Conservatives have been wobbling back and forth, and averaged 25.6 per cent in the province. The New Democrats were down again, falling to 15.8 per cent. The Greens were at 9.9 per cent.

This would likely deliver between 29 and 38 seats to the Liberals, with the Conservatives winning between two and 11 and the New Democrats and Greens only one apiece. That is a decrease from last month for both the Conservatives and NDP, and a gain for the Liberals.

In Alberta, the Conservatives continued to lead with 58.7 per cent support, followed by the Liberals at 28 per cent, the NDP at 6.6 per cent, and the Greens at 4 per cent. This would likely deliver 29 to 31 seats to the Conservatives and three to five seats to the Liberals.

The close race in the Prairies continued, with the Liberals and Conservatives tied at 40.8 per cent, enough to give the Conservatives 17 to 19 seats and the Liberals between nine and 11. The NDP was at 11.3 per cent and the Greens at 6 per cent.

The Liberals dropped to a post-election low in Ontario to 46.7 per cent, dropping them to 75 to 93 seats in the projection. The Conservatives were up to one of their highest level of support since the election with 35.4 per cent, enough to give them 27 to 43 seats. The New Democrats were at 12.6 per cent (one to five seats), and the Greens were at 4.5 per cent.

The Liberals were down 4.1 points in Quebec from February (there were three polls in the province that month) to 46.2 per cent, but that would still give them almost all of the province's 78 seats with 63 to 73. The NDP was up 0.6 points to 17.9 per cent, but that would likely only win them one seat. The Bloc Québécois was up 2.8 points to 17.5 per cent (zero to five seats), while the Conservatives were down 0.2 points to 13.5 per cent. That would likely give them five to nine seats. The Greens were at 3.8 per cent.

And in Atlantic Canada, the Liberal voted oscillated back down to 59.9 per cent, followed by the Conservatives at 19.9 per cent, the NDP at 11.3 per cent, and the Greens at 6.5 per cent. This would likely give the Liberals 29 to 32 seats and the Conservatives zero to three seats.

Altogether, the Liberals would likely have won between 211 and 255 seats in an election held in March, well above the 184 seats they won in the election.

The Conservatives would have won between 80 and 116 seats, straddling the 99 seats they won in the October vote.

The New Democrats would win between two and seven seats, well down from the 44 they currently have.

The Greens would have retained their one seat, while the Bloc Québécois would have won between zero and five seats, an improvement over the projected shutout in February.

The maximum ranges take into account big polling and projection misses. But they might also be a good proxy for the impact of a campaign.

In 2015, when the one-election model was in use, the Conservatives began the campaign on August 2 with a projected maximum range of between 83 and 189 seats — so it did envision their eventual outcome.

For the Liberals, NDP, and Bloc, however, it took until October for the maximum ranges to extend to where the parties eventually wound up. So I think it is fair to say the maximum ranges give a window of what two to three weeks of campaigning could do to the polls. In that sense, they give an indication of what outcomes we might expect if we were in the early stages of a campaign.

The maximum ranges currently give the Liberals anything between a huge majority and a very slim ones. The Conservatives would almost certainly finish second.

The New Democrats could best hope to win 16 seats while the Bloc still could not achieve official party status (9 seats), or be shut out (the NDP too).

I had made an error with the earlier projections, as after the election I had forgotten to re-classify the parties. That is why the Liberal lower end was so low — they were being treated like a third party, not like the governing party.

With the chart now corrected, you can see that the Liberals have not been in a position since the election that would put their majority government in doubt. And only in January did the NDP have an outside chance of finishing in second place.

Provincial polling averages

It was a busy month at the provincial level, with new polls in every province but British Columbia.

In Alberta, Wildrose led with 34 per cent, followed by the New Democrats at 27 per cent, the Progressive Conservatives at 25 per cent, the Liberals at 8 per cent, and the Alberta Party at 4 per cent. Though Rachel Notley's governing NDP is back in second, they have been on a pretty consistent slide since the summer.

The March polling in Saskatchewan averaged 57.1 per cent for Brad Wall's Saskatchewan Party, 32 per cent for the NDP, and 6.4 per cent for the Liberals. The result of the election on April 4, however, was 62.6 per cent for Wall's party and 30.4 per cent for Cam Broten's NDP.

The campaign continues in Manitoba and we have already seen some polls conducted in April. But in March, the Progressive Conservatives averaged 44.8 per cent, followed by the NDP at 24.8 per cent and the Liberals at 23 per cent. It was the first time the New Democrats were in second since last summer.

One poll in Ontario showed continued stability in the province, with Patrick Brown's PCs ahead with 40 per cent to 30 per cent for the Liberals and 24 per cent for the NDP.

In Quebec, the Liberals fell to 32.5 per cent, giving new support to the Coalition Avenir Québec, which was up to 23 per cent. The Parti Québécois was steady at 30 per cent, while Québec Solidaire stood at 10.5 per cent.

The Liberals dropped in New Brunswick to 45 per cent support, followed by the PCs at 27 per cent, the NDP at 18 per cent, and the Greens at 8 per cent.

In Nova Scotia, the Liberals were down to 56 per cent, with the PCs up to 23 per cent and the NDP falling to third place to 16 per cent support.

It was steady sailing in Prince Edward Island, wit the Liberals at 61 per cent, the Progressive Conservatives at 19 per cent, and the Greens at 11 per cent.

And in Newfoundland and Labrador, the post-election honeymoon is on with Dwight Ball's Liberals, who were up to 66 per cent. The PCs were at 23 per cent and the NDP at 11 per cent.

The Pollcast: The future of the NDP and Tom Mulcair

Tom Mulcair will be fighting for his political life at this weekend's NDP convention in Edmonton. But the decisions the New Democrats have to make about the future of the party go beyond just who they want as leader.

How do the New Democrats position themselves against a Liberal Party trying to crowd them out on the left? Does the path to electoral success lie to the centre or to the left of the political spectrum for the NDP?

Is U.S. Democratic Presidential candidate Bernie Sanders or UK Labour Party Leader Jeremy Corbyn a model for the NDP to emulate, or cautionary tales?

And what impact could electoral reform have on the NDP?

Joining me to discuss the future of the NDP on the latest episode of the Pollcast is Ian Capstick, founding partner of Mediastyle and an NDP insider.

You can listen to the podcast here.

Manitoba Liberal support slides, PCs gain in new poll

A new poll suggests that support for the Manitoba Liberals is fragile and dropping, but it is the Progressive Conservatives, and not the New Democrats, who stand to benefit most.

The Mainstreet/Postmedia survey, published Thursday morning, shows the PCs holding the lead with 50 per cent support among decided and leaning voters, compared to 24 per cent for the New Democrats, 17 per cent for the Liberals, and 9 per cent for the Greens.

You can read the rest of this article on the new Mainstreet poll here.

Brad Wall's victory cements his place at centre of conservative movement

The reverberations from the Saskatchewan provincial election won't be felt so much in how the results have changed things, but rather in what they have confirmed.

Brad Wall's third consecutive majority victory — in which he nearly matched the record-setting 64 per cent of the vote he captured in 2011 — keeps the Saskatchewan premier at the forefront of the conservative movement in Canada.

And Cam Broten's performance as leader of the New Democrats, who were themselves dealt their worst popular vote showing in the party's storied history in the province, may be the first disappointment in what could be a very discouraging month for the NDP.

You can read the rest of this article here.

Brad Wall wins another majority in Saskatchewan's electoral déjà-vu

Brad Wall's Saskatchewan Party was re-elected to a majority government last night, taking over 60 per cent of the vote and sending the NDP leader to defeat in his own constituency.

Apparently, Groundhog Day in Saskatchewan has moved to April.

The results of Monday's provincial election in Saskatchewan were very much like the results of the election that came before it. Strikingly so, in fact.

You can read my parsing of the results here.

Brad Wall poised for another majority victory in Saskatchewan

The Saskatchewan provincial election campaign ends just as it began, with the incumbent Saskatchewan Party under Brad Wall enjoying a commanding lead in the polls.

The CBC Saskatchewan Poll Tracker, including all polls published to Saturday, gives the Saskatchewan Party the support of 59.9 per cent of voters, with the New Democrats trailing at 30.7 per cent. The Liberals and Greens are projected to have 4.3 per cent support each.

That is only marginally different from where the numbers stood when the legislature was dissolved on March 8. At the time, the Poll Tracker pegged the Saskatchewan Party to be ahead with 53.5 to 34.5 per cent support.

You can read the rest of this article, my final pre-vote analysis of the Saskatchewan provincial election, here.

(The Poll Tracker will be updated with any new polls published on Sunday. Check here for the latest updates.)

The Pollcast: Election night and beyond in Saskatchewan

Voters in Saskatchewan will head to the ballot boxes on Monday in an election whose outcome is in little doubt. But though the polls suggest the Saskatchewan Party is well-positioned to romp to another majority victory, these voters will have the final say.

What will they decide?

Joining me again to break down what to expect on election night is the CBC's Stefani Langenegger.

You can listen to the latest episode of the Pollcast here.

Saskatchewan Party lead endures in new poll

With only days to go in the Saskatchewan election campaign, a new poll suggests that voting intentions are not budging — and that's good news for the leading Saskatchewan Party.

Insightrix published its latest numbers on Thursday, showing virtually no change from an earlier poll conducted a week before the leaders' debate.

You can read the rest of this article on the latest Saskatchewan polls here.

Mulcair's support down from pre-election high among NDP voters as he faces leadership vote

NDP Leader Tom Mulcair received a bit of good news this week, getting the public support of the leaders of five big unions on Tuesday.

At the party's convention in Edmonton on April 8-10, however, Mulcair will require more than that: he'll likely need the support of a significant majority of the party's rank and file to stay on as leader.

Knowing how the NDP's membership, let alone the 1,500 delegates who will be making the trip to the Alberta capital, would vote on the question of Mulcair's leadership is virtually impossible. But polling conducted since he became leader in March 2012 does provide a glimpse of how NDP supporters feel about Mulcair.

You can read the rest of this article here.

The Pollcast: Whither the NDP in Manitoba's election campaign?

The Manitoba election campaign is entering its third week, but have the dynamics changed at all since it began?

Joining me again to discuss how the campaign is unfolding is the CBC's Cameron MacIntosh.

The narrative of the race continues to be about the split of the vote to the left of the leading Progressive Conservatives. Nothing is more emblematic of that battle than the race in Fort Rouge, where Liberal Leader Rana Bokhari is facing off against the NDP's star candidate, Wab Kinew.

Adding to the complications for the New Democrats is timing: a Saskatchewan election that could go badly for the NDP on April 4, and a federal party convention in Edmonton from April 8 to 10 that could go badly for Tom Mulcair — distractions that the Manitoba New Democrats don't need as they fight against the odds for re-election.

You can listen to the latest episode of the podcast here.

The Pollcast: The final stretch in Saskatchewan

The Saskatchewan provincial election is entering its final stages. But will the campaign go out with a bang or a whimper?

Joining me again to break down the final week of the election campaign is the CBC's Stefani Langenegger.

Did the leaders' debate move any votes, or are these last days of the campaign just about ensuring each party gets its supporters out to cast a ballot? How likely is it that turnout in Saskatchewan will go up, replicating the increase in turnout experienced in the last federal election?

You can listen to the latest episode of the Pollcast here.

Canadians support budget, accept deficit, poll suggests

Canadians may not love the $29.4 billion in deficit spending announced in Tuesday's federal budget, but they can live with it, are broadly supportive of many of the measures included in the budget, and would pass it if they were MPs, a new poll suggests.

The survey, conducted by Abacus Data shortly after the budget was tabled and commissioned by EY, found that Canadians are generally looking on the budget favourably, if not enthusiastically.

You can read the rest of this article on Abacus Data's budget poll here. The article also contains the latest episode of the Pollcast, with Abacus Data CEO David Coletto.

Saskatchewan leaders' debate unlikely to move many votes, poll suggests

Despite the heated rhetoric of Wednesday's Saskatchewan leaders' debate, a poll of debate-watchers taken immediately afterwards suggests that the event may not have moved many votes.

The poll, conducted by Mainstreet Research for Postmedia and surveying 1,006 Saskatchewan people who said they had watched the debate, showed that 56 per cent of debate-watchers thought that Saskatchewan Party Leader Brad Wall had done a better job, while just 32 per cent gave the nod to NDP Leader Cam Broten. Another 12 per cent were unsure.

You can read the rest of this article on the Mainstreet poll on the debate here.

Donald Trump persuading Republicans, but would lose to Hillary Clinton

As the Donald Trump train continues to roll after winning Arizona and all of its delegates on Tuesday, the question of how Trump might fare against the Democrats becomes more and more relevant.

The answer? Not very well. In fact, a Trump candidacy in November could result in some very red states turning reluctantly blue.

You can read the rest of my look at the U.S. primaries and would it could mean for the general election in November here.

Web traffic suggests anticipation for Liberal budget high

The Liberal government's first federal budget to be presented Tuesday by Finance Minister Bill Morneau is greatly anticipated. But despite the high web search traffic, the numbers suggest the budget might not be as hotly anticipated as some past budgets delivered by the Conservatives.

One reason may be that Canadians aren't too worried about what may or may not be in a budget brought in by a popular government.

You can read the rest of this article on Canadians' interest in the budget, as well as some discussion of the new Abacus Data poll on federal politics, here.

The Pollcast: The importance of the Saskatchewan leaders' debate

As the campaign reaches its halfway point, Wednesday's leaders' debate between Saskatchewan Party Leader Brad Wall and NDP Leader Cam Broten could be decisive. That is, if people in Saskatchewan haven't already made up their minds.

Joining me again to break down the state of the election campaign is the CBC's Stefani Langenegger.

You can listen to the latest episode of the Pollcast here.

Manitoba PCs hold lead in new poll as NDP struggles to gain traction

A new poll shows that Brian Pallister's Progressive Conservatives are still leading in the first week of the Manitoba provincial election campaign, though a large number of undecided voters in the poll might give hope to Greg Selinger's beleaguered New Democrats

But without gains outside of their traditional stronghold of the provincial capital the NDP will have only a very tenuous shot at re-election.

You can read the rest of this article on the latest Manitoba projections and the poll from Mainstreet Research here.

New federal poll from Forum, Alberta poll from Insights West

Forum Research has a new federal poll out today, showing continuing strong numbers for the Liberals.

Insights West also has a new poll on the Alberta provincial scene, focusing on the 'unite-the-right' debate, and where supporters for each of the party think they are on the political spectrum.

Despite Donald Trump's wins, U.S. primaries far from over

The American presidential primaries have been playing out for six weeks — and they are not even close to being over.

That is because the outcome will remain uncertain for another three months — or even until July, when the Republican Party could have to hash things out on the convention floor in Cleveland, Ohio.

You can read the rest of this article on the U.S. primaries here.

Brad Wall's Saskatchewan Party gains in 2 new polls

Two new polls suggest that the Saskatchewan Party's position is improving as the province's election campaign continues into its second week.

The CBC Saskatchewan Poll Tracker now pegs the Saskatchewan Party to hold the lead with 56.1 per cent support, a gain of just under three points since last week's update. The New Democrats have slipped about two points to 32.7 per cent, while the Liberals and Greens trail with 7.3 and 3.2 per cent support, respectively.

You can read the rest of this article on the Saskatchewan provincial election here.

The Pollcast: Breaking down the Manitoba election

Voters in Manitoba will be heading to the polls on April 19, as Premier Greg Selinger dissolved the legislature today.

But will he still be in the job on April 20?

You can listen to the podcast with guest Cameron MacIntosh, the CBC's senior report in Manitoba, here.

How embattled NDP Leader Tom Mulcair stacks up against his predecessors

The New Democrats' rise to Official Opposition status in 2011 was sudden and euphoric, its fall back to third-party status traumatic.

Nevertheless,Tom Mulcair's electoral performance in 2015 ranks positively against those of NDP leaders who preceded him.

However, the party's concentration of support in Quebec masks regional weaknesses that make Mulcair look much less impressive when stacked up against his predecessors.

You can read the rest of this article on Tom Mulcair's NDP leadership situation here.

February 2016 federal and provincial polling averages

Polling was particularly thin in the month of February at the federal level, with only two national and one Quebec poll being conducted and published. In all, just under 4,000 Canadians were surveyed.

The polls suggest that the high levels of support the Liberal government has been enjoying since its election victory in October are, for the time being, holding fast.

In the two polls conducted in February, the Liberals averaged 49 per cent support — up about four points from their January averages.

The Conservatives under interim leader Rona Ambrose were up about one point to 29.5 per cent, while the New Democrats were down four points to 12.5 per cent.

The Greens averaged 5 per cent and the Bloc Québécois 3 per cent.

Tom Mulcair's New Democrats were at their lowest level of support in February since I began calculating the monthly averages in January 2009, or over seven years ago. Going through my sparser archives before that date, it seems likely that February 2016 could have been the worst month in polling for the NDP since the end of 2003.

The Liberals led in British Columbia with 46.5 per cent support, followed by the Conservatives at 27 per cent and the New Democrats at 19 per cent. The Greens averaged 7.5 per cent. With these numbers, the Liberals would be able to win 22 to 38 seats in British Columbia, with the Conservatives winning between two and 13 and the New Democrats between one and nine. Elizabeth May would be in no danger in her seat.

The Conservatives averaged 57.5 per cent in Alberta, and would take 28 to 32 seats with those levels of support. The Liberals were at 29 per cent, good for two to six seats, while the New Democrats averaged 7 per cent, good for none. The Greens were at 5 per cent here.

In the Prairies, the Liberals moved narrowly in the lead with 42.5 per cent (enough for nine to 11 seats), while the Conservatives slipped to 39.5 per cent (17 to 19 seats). The NDP was down to 12 per cent. The Greens were at 5.5 percent.

There was little movement in Ontario, where the Liberals led with 50.5 per cent support (and could win 80 to 101 seats with that number). The Conservatives were at 32 per cent (19 to 39 seats) and the New Democrats dropped to 11 per cent (one to three seats). The Greens were at 5.5 per cent.

The Liberals dominated in Quebec with 50.3 per cent support, enough to win them 68 to 73 of the province's 78 seats. The New Democrats were down to 17.3 per cent (zero to one seat), while the Bloc Québécois was unchanged at 14.7 per cent. The Conservatives dropped to 13.7 per cent, but would win five to nine seats with that level of support. The Greens averaged 3.3 per cent.

And in Atlantic Canada, the Liberals were at 72 per cent — a big 15-point jump that we can mostly ignore since it was derived from just two small regional samples. The Conservatives were down to 16 per cent and the NDP to 9.5 per cent, and would continue to be shutout of the seat count. At 3 per cent, the Greens had their lowest level of support here.

Likely ranges

Overall, that would put the Liberal tally at between 216 and 264 seats, a big increase from the 184 seats the party won in October.

The Conservatives would win between 71 and 112 seats, putting them in the ballpark of the 99 seats they currently hold, while the New Democrats would be down sharply to between two and 13 seats.

The Bloc would not win a single seat and the Greens would retain their one.

At the maximum ranges, the Liberals and Conservatives barely overlap even at the 95 per cent confidence interval, while the New Democrats are solidly in third — or worse.

Provincial polling averages

New polls were conducted and published in the month of February in Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, and Quebec.

In Alberta, the Wildrose was narrowly ahead in a three-way pile-up with 33 per cent, followed by the Progressive Conservatives at 31 per cent and the New Democrats at 27 per cent. The Liberals had 5 per cent and the Alberta Party just 4 per cent support. This represents a rather big spike for the leaderless PCs, though Brian Jean's Wildrose and Rachel Notley's NDP have been jostling for position since the May 2015 election.

The Saskatchewan Party under Brad Wall continued to lead in Saskatchewan with an average of 54 per cent support, followed by Cam Broten's New Democrats at 33 per cent. The Saskatchewan Party has led in the province since before the 2007 provincial election.

The Manitoba Progressive Conservatives under Brian Pallister averaged 50.5 per cent in February, followed by Rana Bokhari's Liberals at 21.5 per cent and Greg Selinger's New Democrats at 21 per cent. The Tories' lead against a divided set of opponents continues to look unassailable for the April election.

In Ontario, the Progressive Conservatives were well ahead with 40 per cent support. Trailing in second were the governing Liberals under Kathleen Wynne at 30 per cent, with the New Democrats under Andrea Horwath at 24 per cent support. Patrick Brown's PCs have been leading since August 2015, though this is the widest gap since September.

And in Quebec, the Liberals continued to lead with 36 per cent support, followed by the Parti Québécois at 30 per cent, François Legault's Coalition Avenir Québec at 19.5 per cent, and Québec Solidaire at 11 per cent. After a brief surge following Pierre Karl Péladeau's PQ leadership victory, the lead of Philippe Couillard's Liberals has been holding steady.

The Week in Polls: Wall and Pallister lead, Liberals strong in Quebec, Notley's approval down

The next election on the calendar is in Saskatchewan. The province will vote on April 4, and the campaign itself should officially start in the first week of March. Accordingly, I've launched the vote and seat projections for Saskatchewan.

They show a big advantage for Brad Wall's Saskatchewan Party. They are projected to win 44 to 52 seats at the likely ranges, with the New Democrats taking between nine and 17 seats.

These new numbers are driven by the latest numbers from Mainstreet Research. Its poll published earlier this week pegged the Saskatchewan Party to have 56% support among decided and leaning voters, compared to 32% for the NDP. The Liberals and Greens trailed with just 8% and 4%, respectively.

Wall leads in every part of the province, though the NDP is in a better position to compete for seats in Regina and Saskatoon.

PCs continue to hold lead in Manitoba

Another new poll from Mainstreet in neighbouring Manitoba also shows little change in voting intentions as the next election approaches. Manitobans go to the polls on April 19.

The survey from Mainstreet found the PCs leading with 51% among decided and leaning voters, followed by the New Democrats at 21% and the Liberals at 20%. There was very little change from Mainstreet's previous survey from January.

With a 20-point lead in Winnipeg, the PCs seem to be in little danger. 

I will be launching the vote and seat projections for Manitoba soon.

Federal, provincial Liberals lead in CROP Quebec poll

Following on the heels of last week's poll from Léger, CROP is out with new numbers for the province. Like Léger, they also show both Philippe Couillard's and Justin Trudeau's Liberals in a good position in the province.

CROP federal poll in Quebec

Trudeau's Liberals led in the province with 48% support, followed at a distance by the New Democrats at 24%, the Bloc Québécois at 16%, and the Conservatives at just 9%.

Among francophones, the Liberals were down to 41% support, with the NDP and Bloc up to 28% and 19%, respectively.

The Liberals led in every part of the province, though their margin over the NDP in and around Quebec City was just two points.

CROP provincial poll in Quebec

At the provincial level, Couillard's Liberals were ahead in the poll with 36%, followed by the Parti Québécois at 31%, the Coalition Avenir Québec at 18%, and Québec Solidaire at 12%.

Compared to last month, this represents a swing of four points from QS to the PQ.

Among francophones, the PQ was up slightly to 36%, while the Liberals were at 26%, the CAQ at 21%, and QS at 13%.

The Liberals were well ahead on the island of Montreal, but only narrowly in front of the PQ in the Montreal suburbs and the regions of Quebec. The CAQ led in Quebec City.

Trudeau still favoured as PM, Ambrose trends up

The weekly Nanos numbers on who Canadians prefer as prime minister continue to give Justin Trudeau a huge lead. But Rona Ambrose is inching forward.

Trudeau led in the poll with 51%, with Ambrose at 15% and Tom Mulcair at 11%.

Though Ambrose's numbers continue to head in a positive direction, the change from month-to-month has not been statistically significant.

Trump leads South Carolina, Clinton narrowly favoured in Nevada

The latest forecasts from FiveThirtyEight.com suggest that Donald Trump will win the South Carolina Republican primary quite easily tomorrow. He leads with 31% in FiveThirtyEight's "polls-plus" forecast, followed by Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio at 19% apiece.

Jeb Bush stands at 12%, John Kasich at 10%, and Ben Carson at 7%. 

Compared to when we last checked in last week, the movement in FiveThirtyEight's forecast has been towards Kasich (+5) and away from Rubio (-4).

There have been few polls out for the Democratic caucus in Nevada, but FiveThirtyEight forecasts Hillary Clinton to take 53%, with Bernie Sanders capturing around 46%.

My CBC articles this week

• The Pollcast: Is Brad Wall unbeatable? - In the latest episode of the podcast, I talk about the upcoming provincial election in Saskatchewan with the Regina Leader-Post's Murray Mandryk.
• Facing re-election, Brad Wall and Greg Selinger are Canada's most and least popular premiers - My look at the latest quarterly premier approval ratings from the Angus Reid Institute. Along with the high/low numbers for Wall and Selinger, Alberta's Rachel Notley as taken a tumble in her approval ratings.
• Tom Mulcair's electoral record a bad omen for future NDP leadership - I took a close look at how other leaders have fared after suffering a defeat at the polls. It is tough to make a successful comeback, and the New Democrats haven't often retained leaders who suffered losses in elections.
• Why Energy East is a delicate Liberal balancing act for Justin Trudeau - The ridings through which the proposed pipeline will pass suggests some internal tensions within the Liberal caucus could flare up.

Breaking down Saskatchewan's elections

As I plug away at the projection models for Saskatchewan and Manitoba (the three-election system requires a little more work, since some effort at a rough transposition for elections before the last one has to be done), I thought I'd share some of the information I've tallied for the Saskatchewan model.

The model will be a regional one, with breakdowns for Regina, Saskatoon, and the 'rest of Saskatchewan', which is a sadly dismissive name for such a huge area of the province. These regions have been defined as any of the ridings with the name Regina or Saskatoon (or neither, in the case of the RoS), as these mostly align with the boundaries of each city.

Both Regina and Saskatoon have a riding or two that is partly outside and partly inside the city boundaries, but a quick glance at the map suggests that a large proportion of the population in these ridings is within the city limits. Locals may dissuade me of this notion if need be.

Because the model is a three-election system, I've had to calculate the electoral results in these three regions going back to 2003. So let's take a look at them, starting with the capital.

The last time the NDP won an election in Saskatchewan, in 2003, they dominated Regina. They took 56.8% of the vote, with the Saskatchewan Party capturing just 25.6%. The Liberals took 15.9%, finishing closer to the Sask Party than the Sask Party did to the NDP.

In 2007, however, the NDP lost a lot of its support to the Sask Party in Regina. The NDP fell to 47.5% as the Sask Party increased by about 10 points to 35.7%. The Liberals hardly budged, sliding to 13.9%, while the Greens went from just 1% in Regina in 2003 to 2.7%.

The NDP dropped again in 2011, but the Sask Party's big gain in the city (rising to 55.7%) was propelled by the disappearance of the Liberals from the scene — quite literally, as the party offered up just six candidates for the entire province. While the NDP did bleed some votes to the Sask Party, falling to 40.6% (and the Greens, who were up to 3.2%), the scale of Brad Wall's victory here was largely the product of the hole the Liberals left on the political landscape.

The most recent Mainstreet poll, which put the Sask Party at 49%, the NDP at 34%, the Greens at 10%, and the Liberals at 6% among decided voters, suggests that the two smaller parties are making up ground at the expense of the two larger ones. That's bad news for the New Democrats, who desperately need to return to Regina in force.

The NDP had also won Saskatchewan's largest city in 2003, but by a narrower margin than in Regina. The party took 47.8% of the vote, with the Sask Party at 29.5% and the Liberals not far behind at 21.6%.

But the NDP lost Saskatoon in 2007, falling to 41.7% against 42.8% for the Sask Party. Though that represented a steep drop for the NDP, the Sask Party made most of its gains off of the Liberals, who had fallen to just 12.8% in the city. The NDP's slide was also driven by a gain for the Greens, who went from 0.8% in 2003 to 2.3% in 2007 in Saskatoon.

The Sask Party won the city by a wide margin in 2011, as they gathered up most of the Liberal vote. The party took 58.2%, followed by the NDP at 37.5% (a smaller slide than in Regina). The Liberals captured just 1.4% of the vote, putting them behind the Greens, who had 2.9%.

The last Mainstreet poll gives the Sask Party 52% in Saskatoon, with the NDP at 37%, the Liberals at 5%, and the Greens at 2%. This would suggest that here the gains for the Liberals may draw votes away from the Sask Party, rather than the NDP.

The New Democrats narrowly held onto government in 2003 because they kept things competitive outside of Regina and Saskatoon, winning seats in the north (of course) but also the smaller cities of Prince Albert and Moose Jaw.

But the Sask Party still won the 'rest of Saskatchewan' with 47.6%, followed by the NDP at 39.4% and the Liberals at 10.9%.

With gains from both the Liberals and the NDP, the Sask Party dominated southern, rural Saskatchewan in 2007 with 59.6% of the vote, as the NDP dropped to 31.8% and the Liberals to 6.4%. The Greens, though, went from 0.3% to 1.7% in the region.

But while the NDP held on to a few seats in southern Saskatchewan outside of the two big cities in 2007, they were pushed out entirely in 2011. The Sask Party increased its vote to 69.7% as the NDP fell to 26.7% and the Liberals to just 0.4%. The Greens picked up a point, increasing to 2.7%.

In the Mainstreet poll, the Sask Party led in the region with 66%, with the NDP at 23%, the Liberals at 9%, and the Greens at 1%. The Liberal gain has come at the expense of both the NDP and Sask Party.

As the Liberals will be running a fuller slate this time around (their website lists 29 candidates), the party has the potential to complicate things for the other two parties. But there is no sign in the polls yet that any sort of upheaval is likely to give hope to the NDP or worry to the Sask Party.

Wall leads by wide margin in new Saskatchewan poll

The latest sounding of public opinion in Saskatchewan, which holds its election in a little more than three months, shows Brad Wall's Saskatchewan Party to still be in a very strong position.

The poll gives the Sask Party 59% support, up two points from when Mainstreet Research last polled in early October. The New Democrats trailed with 28%, down four points, while the Liberals were unchanged at 7%. The Greens were down slightly to 3%.

The score for the Liberals is interesting, as the last poll from Insightrix, taken just after the federal election, had the party with double the support. It appears it might have been nothing more than a post-election blip.

Regionally, the race was somewhat closer in Regina and Saskatoon, where the New Democrats had 34% and 37% support, respectively, among decided voters. Nevertheless, the Sask Party was up by 15 points in both cities.

Outside of the two cities, the Sask Party was ahead with 66% to 23% for the NDP. The Liberals were not much of a factor anywhere.

The NDP scored better on some issues than they did on the voting intentions questions, but the Sask Party was still well ahead on all scores. There is little indication that Wall is at any risk.

Premier approval ratings: cracks in the Wall?

The Angus Reid Institute has published its quarterly review of premiers' approval ratings from coast-to-coast (excluding the territories and Prince Edward Island). The numbers show some significant shifts in opinion since Angus Reid's summer poll, and diverging fortunes for the two premiers headed for an election in April.

But while Brad Wall still topped the list, some (small) cracks are beginning to show in his dominance in Saskatchewan.

Wall's approval rating stood at 60 per cent in the poll, with 35 per cent disapproval. That puts him as the only premier with a majority approval rating, but it is his lowest approval rating recorded by the Angus Reid Institute since these quarterly polls began at the end of 2012.

The Saskatchewan premier was the only one with a strong net rating, but two other premiers also had positive scores. Stephen McNeil of Nova Scotia had the approval of 46 per cent and the disapproval of 43 per cent, while Rachel Notley in Alberta had an approval rating of 45 per cent and a disapproval rating of 44 per cent.

(Paul Davis was included in this poll, as he lost the Newfoundland and Labrador election on November 30.)

Brian Gallant of New Brunswick was the only other premier with a generally even rating, scoring 34 per cent approval and 39 disapproval. His 'not sure' rating of 27 per cent was, by far, the largest.

Four premiers put up some very poor numbers. The best of them was Philippe Couillard of Quebec, with an approval rating of 35 per cent and a disapproval rating of 57 per cent. He was followed by British Columbia's Christy Clark (34 per cent approval, 60 per cent disapproval) and Ontario's Kathleen Wynne (30 per cent approval, 60 per cent disapproval). For Wynne, that was her lowest rating since becoming premier in early 2013.

At the bottom of the list — again — was Manitoba's Greg Selinger, with an approval rating of 22 per cent and a disapproval rating of 65 per cent.

Wall and Selinger, book-ending the table, are also the two premiers headed to an election in the spring. However, in terms of who has positive momentum and who has negative momentum, the roles are reversed.

Since the last quarter, Selinger's net approval rating has increased by three points, from a woeful -46 to a still woeful -43. But since this time last year, in the final quarter of 2014, Selinger's net approval rating has actually improved by 13 points. That is the greatest improvement recorded by any premier in the last year. Admittedly, though, it was from a very low base.

Wall, on the other hand, has seen his net approval rating drop by seven points since the last quarter, and 14 points since last year. Only Wynne had a worse year-on-year drop in support, with her net rating dropping by 20 points to -30.

McNeil and Gallant, perhaps buoyed by the federal Liberals' strong performance in Atlantic Canada, saw their net approval ratings increase by eight and 30 points, respectively. Clark was also up three points since the last quarter.

Notley, however, has seen her net approval rating slide by 13 points over the last three months. That has decreased her net rating from a respectable +14 to a break-even +1. Couillard's rating has also dropped by 13 points over the last three quarters, though he was in a worse position a year ago.

If approval ratings can act as a proxy for potential electoral performances, a few of these premiers are in a very safe position: Wall, McNeil, and Notley. Couillard could prevail in a divided political landscape in Quebec. Clark and Gallant would be in much more trouble, while Wynne and Selinger would be defeated.

Luckily for most of these premiers, they do not have to face the electorate for quite awhile — the provincial elections on the schedule for 2017 are in British Columbia and Nova Scotia, and Clark has shown her resilience before. Wall is a virtual lock for the April election in Saskatchewan, but Selinger looks like he will be in tough.

Of course, four months is an eternity in politics, so neither Wall nor Brian Pallister, leader of the Manitoba Progressive Conservatives, can take anything for granted. But these will be hard numbers to mess up, in Wall's case, or, for Selinger, overcome.

Approval ratings for 30 premiers and leaders

Angus-Reid's quarterly polls on premier approval ratings are always interesting, but this week they made it even better by releasing the approval ratings for all major party leaders in nine provinces (poor PEI was excluded, as even with a 7,000+ national sample the number of respondents would be tiny on the island).

It isn't the first time that these numbers have been released, as Angus-Reid was kind enough to provide me with them back in September. But hopefully they will continue to do this every quarter, as it provides a great deal of information.

Let's rank the 30 premiers, opposition leaders, and major party leaders in the nine provinces by approval rating.

Three of the top five have not changed since September: Brad Wall, Lorraine Michael, and Adrian Dix. Only Wall, Michael, and Danielle Smith have a better than 50% approval rating, while all others have under 50%.

Quite a few more leaders have a disapproval rating of 50% or more: David Alward, Tim Hudak, Pauline Marois, Dexter, Alison Redford, Amir Khadir, Christy Clark, and Kathy Dunderdale.

Note that the leaders of Québec Solidaire and the Quebec Liberals are not correct in this poll. That is understandable for the Liberals, who chose Philippe Couillard as their new leader (replacing interim leader Jean-Marc Fournier) in the midst of this polling. Khadir, however, should have been replaced by Françoise David. Khadir is no longer the male spokesperson for the party, and in effect the female spokesperson (David) is the de facto leader. I suspect she would have had a much higher approval rating than Khadir, and might have cracked the top ten.

It is hard to find any partisan advantage in these numbers. Conservatives like Wall, Smith, and Brian Pallister are ranked highly, while Clark, Dunderdale, and John Cummins are at the bottom. Stephen McNeil, Brian Gallant, and Dwight Ball score well for the Liberals, while John Gerrard and Raj Sherman do not (and you might include Clark with them as well). The NDP has three of the top five in Michael, Andrea Horwath, and Dix, but also Dexter in the bottom tier.

There does seem to be an anti-incumbent bias in the numbers, as nine of the top ten are third party or opposition leaders, while five of the nine premiers are ranked 20th or lower. There doesn't seem to be a gender bias, though: Redford, Dunderdale and Clark are at the bottom of the list but Michael, Smith, and Horwath are at the top.

Who has made the biggest gains since the September poll? If we look at it only in terms of ranking, we see that Ball made the biggest gain, jumping 18 spots to 10th overall. Gallant is ranked 17 spots higher than interim leader Victor Boudreau was, while Dominic Cardy gained ten spots to move into the top half of the list. Atlantic Canadian leaders were on the move.

The leader that had the largest fall was Redford, who was ranked second in September but is now ranked 25th. Her approval rating has just plummeted in the last few months. Dunderdale also fell, by 17 spots, to 28th, while Marois and Cam Broten (compared to John Nilson) each fell eight spots to 20th and 21st overall. Wall, meanwhile, held on to top spot while Cummins and Victor Lau were unchanged as the bottom two on the list.

But is an approval rating the best way to measure these leaders? Broten, for example, was just recently named leader of the Saskatchewan NDP and his approval rating of 32% is actually quite decent, considering his disapproval rating is only 19% (49% have yet to make up their minds).

The chart to the left ranks leaders by their net approval rating (approval minus disapproval) and it changes things quite a bit. Edit: An earlier version of this post had incorrect net ratings for Wall and Sterk.

Broten makes the biggest move, increasing by 15 spots to sixth overall. Sterk also jumps 13 spots, as she has a large "not sure" total as well.

The bottom four are all premiers, meanwhile, with Dexter, Redford, Clark, and Dunderdale at the bottom of the list. Marois is also in the bottom tier. Wall remains the only premier in the top tier, but now becomes the only premier in the top half, too. Wall also has the distinction of being the only premier ranked more highly than all of his main opponents.

Most other premiers are ranked below two opponents: Dunderdale, Clark, Redford, Dexter, Marois, and Alward are all third or fourth in their province. Selinger is ranked just a little more highly than Gerrard, while Kathleen Wynne is ranked much more highly than Hudak (though she trails Horwath).

Approval rating is a pretty important indictor of ability to win. If an election were held today, based only on voting intentions polls, the approval ratings leaders (not net ratings) in every province except Ontario and Quebec would win (and we can't even say that with certainty about Quebec, as Couillard might have ranked more highly than François Legault).

These rankings aren't anything to sneeze at - if the elections in B.C. and Nova Scotia go as expected, premiers will take up three of the top six spots in the approval ratings rankings in a few months. And if these ratings continue, one has to wonder whether some of the other leaders at the bottom of the list (Redford, Dunderdale, Cummins, maybe Hudak) will be on their way out in the next year or two. Gerrard is already leaving and is just waiting for his replacement, while Khadir shouldn't have been included at all. That accounts for seven of the bottom 10 spots in the approval ratings ranking, and eight in the net ratings ranking.

Are approval ratings the kiss of death? Possibly - three of the four names that have disappeared from the list since September were ranked 17th or lower.

Eight months later, little change in Saskatchewan

On June 20, Insightrix released a new poll on the voting intentions of Saskatchewanians. It suggests that little has changed since the November 2011 election, and that means the Saskatchewan Party is still well ahead of its competitors.

Insightrix reported that the Saskatchewan Party has the support of 60.8% of voters, compared to 29.4% for the NDP, 4.3% for the Greens, 2.8% for the Liberals, and 1.2% for other parties. They also reported that 1.5% would spoil their ballot, something that is not recorded as part of the overall vote share in elections. Removing that last bit from the equation, we get the Saskatchewan Party at 62% and the New Democrats at 30%, with no major change for the Greens, Liberals, or others.

Since the election, that represents a two point drop for both the Sask. Party and the New Democrats, with the Greens up one and the Liberals up two. These are insignificant shifts, and for the Liberals much depends on how many candidates they run. They only ran nine out of 58 in the last election and took 0.6% of the vote. On a full slate that would have meant around 4% support, suggesting that they have also not budged very much.

These marginal changes would result in no seat shifts, as the Saskatchewan Party would hold on to their 49 seats and the New Democrats would retain their nine.

Brad Wall remains a very popular politician in Saskatchewan, as his approval rating stands at 67.5%. That is down only a small amount compared to the 69.1% he scored in an Insightrix poll from November. It is noteworthy, though, that his "strongly approve" numbers have slipped by seven points, from 39.6% to 32.8%. This might be something to keep an eye on in future reports from Insightrix.

Nevertheless, this still gives him a wider lead over the NDP's interim leader than his Saskatchewan Party has over the New Democrats. John Nilson has an approval rating of 32.2%, though almost 37% of Saskatchewanians "don't know" what they think of Nilson. This is not very important, however, as the Saskatchewan NDP will be choosing its next leader in March and Nilson will not be a candidate.

Steady as she goes in Saskatchewan, then. Wall is a very well-liked premier of a prosperous province, and that makes him a potentially strong candidate to be the eventual successor to Stephen Harper as leader of the Conservative Party. He will only be 54 by the 2019 federal election - plenty of time for him to win one more mandate for his party in Saskatchewan, pass along the premiership to another person, and brush up on his French.